军用物资集装箱内部低温环境条件研究

以天津和齐齐哈尔两个低温地区军用物资集装箱运输为背景,分别对两个地区的集装箱内部温度变化及大气温度等数据进行测试并对比分析。对齐齐哈尔地区的数据进行回归分析,建立了集装箱内部温度模型,预测出集装箱内部最恶劣的低温极值范围,为危险军用物资集装箱安全储运提供理论依据,并提出了相应的对策及建议。     

基于改进LUR模型的区域土壤重金属空间分布预测

以江苏省常州市金坛区为例,借鉴传统LUR模型思路,考虑土壤重金属的源汇关系,加入土壤属性因子,构建LUR-S模型模拟预测了研究区土壤重金属含量空间分布,并与传统LUR模型及普通克里格插值模型结果进行对比,结果表明:(1)研究区土壤重金属含量受到以土地利用为主的源因子及反映重金属在土壤中赋存环境的汇因子的共同影响.就源影响因子而言,土壤Cu、Zn含量分别与2 000 m缓冲区内交通用地面积、2 000 m缓冲区内城市建设用地面积极显著相关(P0.01);就汇影响因子而言,土壤Cr、Cu、Zn含量与OM、Corg、TC、TN极显著相关(P0.01).(2)研究区土壤重金属Pb、Cr、Cu、Zn空间分布预测的LUR-S模型方程R2较传统LUR模型分别提高了0.041、0.406、0.102、0.501,精度检验R2较普通克里格插值模型分别提高了0.147 7、0.011 6、0.231 0、0.081,RMSE较普通克里格插值分别减少了2.413、0.631、1.112、2.138,表明考虑了源汇关系的LUR-S模型预测精度高于传统LUR模型和普通克里格插值模型;(3)LUR-S模型对污染较低、变异较小重金属空间分布预测的适用性较好,而对污染较高、变异较大重金属则较差.     

玉米干旱等级划分及气象产量评估方法

分别以(玉米年雨量平均值±0.5倍标准差)和(平均值±1.5倍标准差)界定不同等级的干旱年份,分析了干旱年对玉米产量的影响,通过对玉米生育期气象条件的分析,建立了玉米气象产量评估方程。     

The predictive validity of safety climate

PROBLEM: Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. METHODS: This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628]. In addition, safety behavior and accident experience data were collected for 5 months following the survey and were statistically analyzed (structural equation modeling, confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory factor analysis, etc.) to identify correlations, associations, internal consistency, and factorial structures. RESULTS: Results revealed that the ZSCQ: (a) was psychometrically reliable and valid, (b) served as an effective predictor of safety-related outcomes (behavior and accident experience), and (c) could be trimmed to an 11 item survey with little loss of explanatory power. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Practitioners and researchers can use the ZSCQ with reasonable certainty of the questionnaire's reliability and validity. This provides a solid foundation for the development of meaningful organizational interventions and/or continued research into social factors affecting industrial accident experience.     

嫩江水体溶解氧变化规律的混沌研究

针对目前溶解氧研究主要是从生物、化学等方面开展,而对溶解氧自身变化规律的研究很少的特点,以嫩江干流浏园水文站测得的溶解氧质量浓度序列为例,首先进行相空间重构,应用自相关函数法确定出延迟时间、伪邻近点法确定出嵌入维数;然后应用主分量分析(PCA)方法对序列进行分析,表明该序列不是噪声序列而可能是混沌序列,通过计算Kolmogorov熵得出溶解氧质量浓度序列具有混沌特性的结论;最后应用基于关联度的局域加权线性回归预测法对该序列进行了混沌预测研究,得到了比较理想的预测结果,这为应用混沌理论进行溶解氧变化规律的研究提供了依据.     

Artificial neural network model for identifying taxi gross emitter from remote sensing data of vehicle emission

Vehicle emission has been the major source of air pollution in urban areas in the past two decades. This article proposes an artificial neural network model for identifying the taxi gross emitters based on the remote sensing data. After carrying out the field test in Guangzhou and analyzing various factors from the emission data, the artificial neural network modeling was proved to be an advisable method of identifying the gross emitters. On the basis of the principal component analysis and the selection of algorithm and architecture, the Back-Propagation neural network model with 8-17-1 architecture was established as the optimal approach for this purpose. It gave a percentage of hits of 93%. Our previous research result and the result from aggression analysis were compared, and they provided respectively the percentage of hits of 81.63% and 75%. This comparison demonstrates the potentiality and validity of the proposed method in the identification of taxi gross emitters.     

Thermodynamics and kinetics of cadmium adsorption onto oxidized granular activated carbon

Cadmium sorption behavior of granular activated carbon oxidized with nitric acid was systematically studied by sets of the equilibrium and time-based experiments under various conditions.The cadmium adsorption capacity of oxidized granular activated carbon enlarged with an increase in pH,and reduced with an increase in ionic strength.Experimental data were evaluated to find out kinetic characteristics.Adsorption processes were found to follow pseudo-second order rate equation.Adsorption isotherms correlate well with the Langmuir isotherm model and the maximum sorption capacity of cadmium evaluated is 51.02μmol/g.Thermodynamic parameters were calculated based on Van't Hoff equation.Equilibrium constant Kd was evaluated from Freundlich isotherm model constants,Langmnir isotherm model constants,and isotherms,respectively.The average change of standard adsorption heatΔH~0 was -25.29 kJ/mol.NegativeΔH~0 andΔG~0 values indicate the adsorption process for cadmium onto the studied activated carbon is exothermic and spontaneous.The standard entropyΔS~0 was also negative,which suggests a decrease in the freedom of the system.     

沈阳市生活垃圾排放现状及产生量预测

随着城市化进程加快、人口数量快速增加及人民生活水平普遍提高,城市生活垃圾管理已成为世界各国,特别是发展中国家城市面临的主要挑战.作为中国东北最大的中心城市,沈阳正面临城市生活垃圾产生量急剧增加的现状.文章通过对沈阳市城市生活垃圾排放现状的分析,发现2002年后沈阳市生活垃圾产生量和清运量逐年增加,生活垃圾成分变化显著....     

石羊河流域1959年至2008年风速变化特征分析

利用线性拟合、Mann—Kendall方法、小波分析对石羊河流域五个测站空间平均的近50年来的逐日风速资料进行了倾向、周期、突变等特性分析。研究结果表明：1959年至2008年间,整个石羊河流域风速呈减小趋势,变化率约为-0．004m／（s．a）．而上游风速呈现明显的上升趋势。四个季节中冬季风速降低速度最大,而夏季风速呈现上升趋势。风速的长期变化还具有一定的突变性,年平均风速在1988年出现了由高到低的突变,表明风速开始下降。复值Morlet小波分析的结果显示,风速变化存在6a、13a、19a、25a四个峰值。其中19a的时间尺度为第一主周期。     

Evaluation of accuracy of linear regression models in predicting urban stormwater discharge characteristics

Stormwater runoff has been identified as a source of pollution for the environment, especially for receiving waters. In order to quantify and manage the impacts of stormwater runoff on the environment, predictive models and mathematical models have been developed. Predictive tools such as regression models have been widely used to predict stormwater discharge characteristics. Storm event characteristics, such as antecedent dry days （ADD）, have been related to response variables, such as pollutant loads and concentrations. However it has been a controversial issue among many studies to consider ADD as an important variable in predicting stormwater discharge characteristics. In this study, we examined the accuracy of general linear regression models in predicting discharge characteristics of roadway runoff. A total of 17 storm events were monitored in two highway segments, located in Gwangju, Korea. Data from the monitoring were used to calibrate United States Environmental Protection Agency＇s Storm Water Management Model （SWMM）. The calibrated SWMM was simulated for 55 storm events, and the results of total suspended solid （TSS） discharge loads and event mean concentrations （EMC） were extracted. From these data, linear regression models were developed. R2 and p-values of the regression of ADD for both TSS loads and EMCs were investigated. Results showed that pollutant loads were better predicted than pollutant EMC in the multiple regression models. Regression may not provide the true effect of site-specific characteristics, due to uncertainty in the data.