Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.     

Vector-Borne Diseases, Development & Climate Change

Vector-borne diseases are feared to extend their range in a future where global warming has occurred. There is considerable concern about scourges such as malaria re-invading currently temperate regions and reaching into higher altitudes in Africa. In this paper we examine the various factors thought to determine potential infectivity of malaria, and its actual outbreak in the context of a dynamic integrated assessment model. We quantify: (i) the role of demographics in placing a larger population in harms way; (ii) the role of climate change in increasing the potential geographic range and severity of the risk of infection; and (iii) the role of economic and social development in limiting the occurrence of malaria. We then explore the climate and economic implications of various climate policies in their effectiveness to limit potential infectivity of malaria. In illustration of these issues we present the climate-related and economics-related impacts of unilateral CO₂ control by OECD on incidence of malaria in non-OECD nations. The model presented here, although highly stylized in its representation of socio-economic factors, provides strong evidence of the role of socio-economic factors in determination of malaria incidence. The case study offers insights into unintended adverse consequences of well-meaning climate policies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

镧施用下黄潮土酶活性的动态变化

通过模拟试验研究了镧施用下黄潮土酶活性的动态变化。土壤脱氢酶、碱性磷酸酶、脲酶及蔗糖酶活性均随培养时间延长而降低。镧强烈抑制土壤脱氢酶活性 ,在 3 0mg/kg时达到显著水平 (P <0 0 5 ) ,最大抑制率达到 3 9%。镧对土壤碱性磷酸酶活性也有抑制 ,最大抑制率为 1 5 %。镧对土壤脲酶活性影响不明显。镧对土壤蔗糖酶活性表现出不同程度的刺激作用 ,最大刺激率达到 1 5 %。土壤脱氢酶活性是评价稀土元素环境效应的敏感指标。     

Carbon exchange between ecosystems and atmosphere in the Czech Republic is affected by climate factors

By comparing five ecosystem types in the Czech Republic over several years, we recorded the highest carbon sequestration potential in an evergreen Norway spruce forest (100%) and an agroecosystem (65%), followed by European beech forest (25%) and a wetland ecosystem (20%). Because of a massive ecosystem respiration, the final carbon gain of the grassland was negative. Climate was shown to be an important factor of carbon uptake by ecosystems: by varying the growing season length (a 22-d longer season in 2005 than in 2007 increased carbon sink by 13%) or by the effect of short- term synoptic situations (e.g. summer hot and dry days reduced net carbon storage by 58% relative to hot and wet days). Carbon uptake is strongly affected by the ontogeny and a production strategy which is demonstrated by the comparison of seasonal course of carbon uptake between coniferous (Norway spruce) and deciduous (European beech) stands.     

Detecting deforestation with a spectral change detection approach using multitemporal Landsat data: a case study of Kinabalu Park, Sabah, Malaysia

Tropical deforestation is occurring at an alarming rate, threatening the ecological integrity of protected areas. This makes it vital to regularly assess protected areas to confirm the efficacy of measures that protect that area from clearing. Satellite remote sensing offers a systematic and objective means for detecting and monitoring deforestation. This paper examines a spectral change approach to detect deforestation using pattern decomposition (PD) coefficients from multitemporal Landsat data. Our results show that the PD coefficients for soil and vegetation can be used to detect deforestation using change vector analysis (CVA). CVA analysis demonstrates that deforestation in the Kinabalu area, Sabah, Malaysia has significantly slowed from 1.2% in period 1 (1973 and 1991) to 0.1% in period 2 (1991 and 1996). A comparison of deforestation both inside and outside Kinabalu Park has highlighted the effectiveness of the park in protecting the tropical forest against clearing. However, the park is still facing pressure from the area immediately surrounding the park (the 1km buffer zone) where the deforestation rate has remained unchanged.     

Economic Growth,Climate Change,Biodiversity Loss: Distributive Justice for the Global North and South

Abstract: Economic growth‐the increase in production and consumption of goods and services‐must be considered within its biophysical context. Economic growth is fueled by biophysical inputs and its outputs degrade ecological processes, such as the global climate system. Economic growth is currently the principal cause of increased climate change, and climate change is a primary mechanism of biodiversity loss. Therefore, economic growth is a prime catalyst of biodiversity loss. Because people desire economic growth for dissimilar reasons‐some for the increased accumulation of wealth, others for basic needs‐how we limit economic growth becomes an ethical problem. Principles of distributive justice can help construct an international climate‐change regime based on principles of equity. An equity‐based framework that caps economic growth in the most polluting economies will lessen human impact on biodiversity. When coupled with a cap‐and‐trade mechanism, the framework can also provide a powerful tool for redistribution of wealth. Such an equity‐based framework promises to be more inclusive and therefore more effective because it accounts for the disparate developmental conditions of the global north and south.     

Effect of dung deposition on small-scale patch structure and seasonal vegetation dynamics in mountain pastures

Cattle activity greatly influences plant species composition and biomass production of grassland ecosystems. Dung deposition by cattle together with grazing and trampling can be considered as one of the important factors driving vegetation dynamics in pastures. The objective of this study was to investigate at 10-cm and 1-month resolution the plant community dynamics induced by dung deposition in two plant communities (a mesotrophic and an oligotrophic grassland) in a pasture of the Swiss Jura Mountains. Vegetation was sampled four or three times during the vegetation period in contiguous 10 cm × 10 cm quadrats from the centre of the dung pat to a distance of 60 cm. A lower grazing intensity near the dung pat was recorded for all observation periods. In the mesotrophic grassland the canopy was higher near the dung pat already one week after dung deposition. Vegetation around dung pats was submitted to two opposite fertilizing and grazing gradients, which induced changes in vegetation texture and structure at fine scale and short term. We observed a positive rank correlation between species turnover and distance to the dung for both communities, suggesting a seasonal stabilizing effect of dung on the plant composition of their direct surroundings (0–10 cm) likely due to cattle avoidance. Since dung pats are dropped every year in different locations, they create in the pasture a shifting mosaic of nutrient availability and grazing intensity inducing at seasonal scale micro-successions in plant communities.     

Faith-based climate action in Christian congregations: mobilisation and spiritual resources

This article seeks to explain how and why church congregations mobilise on environmental issues and what – if anything – is distinctive about that mobilisation. Building on and adapting Resource Mobilisation Theory (RMT), we develop the idea of “spiritual resources” to help explain how a collection of spiritual identities, values, symbols and narratives can facilitate distinctive collective action on environmental issues. Our analysis draws on data derived from an in-depth case study of climate active groups in Scotland. It includes content analysis of websites, news stories as well as ethnographic observation of selected church and secular groups engaged in climate activity. We find church groups do enjoy a distinct set of resources – comprising tradition, rituals and symbols shaped by theology and doctrine – which are not wholly captured by other explanations of climate mobilisation. While these spiritual resources do not directly translate into specific environmental or climate action they can, especially when combined with other resources, lead to environmental activities distinctly motivated, and distinctly practised at the individual and community level.     

Amazonian deforestation and soil biodiversity

Clearance and perturbation of Amazonian forests are one of the greatest threats to tropical biodiversity conservation of our times. A better understanding of how soil communities respond to Amazonian deforestation is crucially needed to inform policy interventions that effectively protect biodiversity and the essential ecosystem services it provides. We assessed the impact of deforestation and ecosystem conversion to arable land on Amazonian soil biodiversity through a meta-analysis. We analyzed 274 pairwise comparisons of soil biodiversity in Amazonian primary forests and sites under different stages of deforestation and land-use conversion: disturbed (wildfire and selective logging) and slash-and-burnt forests, pastures, and cropping systems. Overall, 60% and 51% of responses of soil macrofauna and microbial community attributes (i.e., abundance, biomass, richness, and diversity indexes) to deforestation were negative, respectively. We found few studies on mesofauna (e.g., microarthropods) and microfauna (e.g., protozoa and nematodes), so those groups could not be analyzed. Macrofauna abundance and biomass were more vulnerable to the displacement of forests by pastures than by agricultural fields, whereas microbes showed the opposite pattern. Effects of Amazonian deforestation on macrofauna were more detrimental at sites with mean annual precipitation >1900 mm, and higher losses of microbes occurred in highly acidic soils (pH < 4.5). Limited geographic coverage, omission of meso- and microfauna, and low taxonomic resolution were main factors impairing generalizations from the data set. Few studies assessed the impacts of within-forest disturbance (wildfires and selective logging) on soil species in Amazonia, where logging operations rapidly expand across public lands and more frequent severe dry seasons are increasing the prevalence of wildfires.     

Biotic homogenization and differentiation of plant communities in tropical and subtropical forests

Anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity can lead to biotic homogenization (BH) and biotic differentiation (BD). BH is a process of increasing similarity in community composition (including taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic components), whereas BD is a process of decreasing similarity over space and time. Here, we conducted a systematic review of BH and BD in plant communities in tropical and subtropical forests to identify trends and knowledge gaps. Our bibliometric search in the Web of Science returned 1989 papers, of which 151 matched our criteria and were included in the analysis. The Neotropical region had the largest number of articles, and Brazil was the most represented country with 92 studies. Regarding the type of change, homogenization was more frequent than differentiation (noted in 69.6% of publications). The taxonomic diversity component was measured more often than functional and phylogenetic diversity components. Most studies (75.6%) assessed homogenization and differentiation based on a single observation in time; as opposed to few studies that monitored plant community over multiple years. Forest fragmentation was cited as the main determinant of homogenization and differentiation processes (57.2% of articles). Our results highlight the importance of evaluating community composition over time and more than taxonomic components (i.e., functional and phylogenetic) to advance understanding of homogenization and differentiation. Both processes were scale dependent and not mutually exclusive. As such, future research should consider differentiation as a potential transition phase to homogenization and that potential differences in both processes may depend on the spatial and temporal scale adopted. Understanding the complexity and causes of homogenization and differentiation is essential for biodiversity conservation in a world increasingly affected by anthropogenic disturbances.