Impact of bias in predicted height on tree volume estimation: A case-study of intrinsic nonlinearity

Bias originating from intrinsic nonlinearity in nonlinear models is caused by excess curvature in the solution locus of parameter estimates derived from least squares procedures. Bias due to intrinsic nonlinearity varies according to sample size as well as model specification. This paper analyses consequences of fractionising data into smaller sub-samples. Based on measurements of stem diameter and total tree height from the first Danish national forest inventory, it is demonstrated how data splitting at random may cause the intrinsic nonlinear curvature to exceed the critical F-value. Application of a Taylor-series expansion shows that, for all practical purposes, the bias in predictions of individual tree volume (based on stem diameter and tree height) is negligible. To minimize residual variance, intrinsic curvature and, in turn, prediction bias, it is recommended that data be stratified according to site conditions, stand characteristics or other relevant criteria. Finally, the preferred model should exhibit close-to-linear behaviour.     

Modelling the forest carbon budget of a Mediterranean region through the integration of ground and satellite data

This paper introduces an innovative modelling strategy aimed at simulating the main terms of net forest carbon budget (net primary production, NPP and net ecosystem exchange, NEE) in Tuscany (Central Italy). The strategy is based on the preliminary calibration and application of parametric and bio-geochemical models (C-Fix and BIOME-BGC, respectively), which simulate the behaviour of forest ecosystems close to equilibrium condition (climax). Next, the ratio of actual over-potential tree volume is computed as an indicator of ecosystem distance from climax and is combined with the model outputs to estimate the NPP and NEE of real forests. The per-pixel application of the new modelling strategy was made possible by the collection of several data layers (maps of forest type and volume, daily meteorological data and monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images for the years 1999–2003) which served to characterize the eco-climatic and forest features of the region. The obtained estimates of forest NPP and NEE were evaluated against ground measurements of accumulated woody biomass and net carbon exchange. The results of these experiments testify the good potential of the proposed strategy and indicate some problem areas which should be the subject of future research.     

Spatially explicit modeling of overstory manipulations in young forests: Effects on stand structure and light

Young forests can be manipulated in diverse ways to enhance their ecological values. We used stem maps from two dense, second-growth stands in western Washington and a spatially explicit light model (tRAYci) to simulate effects of five silvicultural manipulations on diameter distribution, species composition, spatial patterning, and light availability. Each treatment removed 30% of the basal area, but differed in how trees were selected for removal. Three primary treatments were thin from below (removing the smallest trees), random thin (removing trees randomly), and gap creation (removing all trees in circles ∼1 tree height in diameter). Two additional treatments combined elements of these approaches: random ecological thin (a mixture of thin from below and random thin) and structured ecological thin (a mixture of thin from below and gap creation).     

Combining a generic process-based productivity model and a statistical classification method to predict the presence and absence of tree species in the Pacific Northwest,U.S.A.

Although long-lived tree species experience considerable environmental variation over their life spans, their geographical distributions reflect sensitivity mainly to mean monthly climatic conditions. We introduce an approach that incorporates a physiologically based growth model to illustrate how a half-dozen tree species differ in their responses to monthly variation in four climatic-related variables: water availability, deviations from an optimum temperature, atmospheric humidity deficits, and the frequency of frost. Rather than use climatic data directly to correlate with a species’ distribution, we assess the relative constraints of each of the four variables as they affect predicted monthly photosynthesis for Douglas-fir, the most widely distributed species in the region. We apply an automated regression-tree analysis to create a suite of rules, which differentially rank the relative importance of the four climatic modifiers for each species, and provide a basis for predicting a species’ presence or absence on 3737 uniformly distributed U.S. Forest Services’ Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field survey plots. Results of this generalized rule-based approach were encouraging, with weighted accuracy, which combines the correct prediction of both presence and absence on FIA survey plots, averaging 87%. A wider sampling of climatic conditions throughout the full range of a species’ distribution should improve the basis for creating rules and the possibility of predicting future shifts in the geographic distribution of species.     

福州国家森林公园游客游览状况与其心理健康的关系

以福州国家森林公园为例,调查了公园游客在游览中的偏好和习惯,并结合其心境状况指标(POMS),分析了不同游览偏好与心境状况的关系。结果表明:超过60%的游客喜欢在春季游览森林公园;至少每月游览1～2次对身心健康有益,且每次游览的时间至少在2h以上为最佳;居住地距离福州国家森林公园0.5km以内的游客,心理健康状况显著优于距离0.5km以上的游客;愿意游览森林公园的游客其心理健康状况显著优于不愿意或无所谓的游客。最后,根据调查结果,对游客使用森林公园的方式以及公园管理等方面提出了建议。     

Conflicting perspectives of forest management in Bastar, Central India

This article enters the debate on shifting cultivation and tropical forests, and the role of the State forest departments in managing these regions. The article focuses on the adivasi (indigenous) people and their use of forests in the Bastar region of Madhya Pradesh in Central India. It examines the different landscapes, resulting from human interaction, in order to observe the vegetative changes and progressions in their characteristics; in particular, the author challenges the view that adivasi forest use has been detrimental to the ecology of the forest. A botanical comparison is made between three sites that allow us to note specific characteristics of a fallow, a secondary forest and a primary sal (Shorea robusta) forest. The wider aspects of the adivasi manner of forest use are also discussed.
A major portion of the Bastar region is legally under the authority of the Madhya Pradesh State Forest Department. However, the official policies and laws, pertaining to the conservation of forests and the generation of revenue, are often insensitive to the adivasi perceptions and use of the various vegetative zones within the forest. The effect of a standardised form of demarcation, coupled with the State legislation, has overlooked the adivasi people's needs and their ecologically sound way of relating to the forest. The paper concludes with a few recommendations.     

Sensitivity of stand dynamics to grazing in mixed Pinus sylvestris and Quercus pubescens forests: A modelling study

Only recently, studies of forest succession have started to include the effects of browsing by wild or domestic ungulates. We aim to contribute to this topic by analysing the influence of goat grazing on the long-term coexistence of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) in the low-elevation forests of an inner-Alpine dry valley. The forest gap model ForClim was first adapted to these site conditions by examining the site-dependent sensitivity of the model with regard to the species-specific parameterisation of the drought tolerance as well as the light demand of establishing and adult trees. In a second step, the behaviour of the model was investigated with respect to different grazing intensities and species-specific browsing susceptibilities. The last step was the application of a grazing scenario based on forest history, with 150 years of heavy browsing (by goats) at the beginning of the simulated forest succession, followed by less intensive grazing pressure.     

A Bayesian approach to multi-source forest area estimation

In efforts such as land use change monitoring, carbon budgeting, and forecasting ecological conditions and timber supply, there is increasing demand for regional and national data layers depicting forest cover. These data layers must permit small area estimates of forest area and, most importantly, provide associated error estimates. This paper presents a model-based approach for coupling mid-resolution satellite imagery with plot-based forest inventory data to produce estimates of probability of forest and associated error at the pixel-level. The proposed Bayesian hierarchical model provides access to each pixel’s posterior predictive distribution allowing for a highly flexible analysis of pixel and multi-pixel areas of interest. The paper presents a trial using multiple dates of Landsat imagery and USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data. The results describe the spatial dependence structure within the trial site, provide pixel and multi-pixel summaries of probability of forest land use, and explore discretization schemes of the posterior predictive distributions to forest and non-forest classes. Model prediction results of a holdout set analysis suggest the proposed model provides high classification accuracy, 88%, for the trial site.

Estimates of species- and ecosystem-level respiration of woody stems along an elevational gradient in the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico

We measured CO₂ efflux from stems of seven subtropical tree species situated along an elevational gradient in the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico and scaled these measurements up to the landscape level based on modeled and empirical relations. The most important determinants of ecosystem stem respiration were species composition and stem temperature. At a species scale, measured CO₂ efflux per unit bole surface area at a given temperature was highest in the early successional species Cecropia schreberiana and lowest in species that inhabit high elevations such as Micropholis garciniifolia and Tabebuia rigida. Carbon dioxide efflux rates followed a diel pattern that lagged approximately 6 h behind changes in sapwood temperatures. At an ecosystem scale, our simulation model indicates a decreasing trend of stem respiration rates with increasing elevation due to shifts in species composition, lower temperatures and reductions in branch surface area. The highest estimated stem respiration rates were present in the lowland tabonuco forest type and the lowest rates were present in the elfin forest type (mean 7.4 and 2.1 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively). There was slight temperature-induced seasonal variation in simulated stem respiration rates at low elevations, with a maximum difference of 19% between the months of February and July. Our results coincide well with those of Odum and Jordan [Odum, H.T., Jordan, C.F., 1970. Metabolism and evapotranspiration of the lower forest in a giant plastic cylinder. In: Odum, H.T., Pigeon, R.F. (Eds.), A Tropical Rain Forest: A Study of Irradiation and Ecology at El Verde, Puerto Rico. U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, Oak Ridge, TN, pp. I165–I189] for the tabonuco forest type and extend their work by presenting estimates and spatial patterns of woody tissue respiration for the entire mountain rather than for a single forested plot.