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61.
The incorporation of land use (LU) data with socioeconomic data is a main issue in modelling. This is as a result of difference in data model and scale. This study proposed and tested the change–pattern approach, which allows the incorporation of these data sets in modelling LU change. Focusing on LU dynamics for a selected part of the Thames Gateway within the City of London, the approach tested two different methods of input selection for the modelling operations. Variables selected from these two methods serve as inputs into several neural networks tested in order to identify the direction of change for each of the LU types within the study area. The result shows that direction of LU change across the study area could be identified when spatial morphology of the area and socioeconomic variables are considered. Some classes of change could be identified fairly accurately using landscape metrics indicating level of fragmentation, extent of LU patches, shape complexity of LU patches in combination with some socioeconomic variables.  相似文献   
62.
We present how state-and-transition models (STMs) may be derived from image data, providing a graphical means of understanding how ecological dynamics are driven by complex interactions among ecosystem events. A temporal sequence of imagery of fine scale vegetation patterning was acquired from close range photogrammetry (CRP) of 1 m quadrats, in a long term monitoring project of Themeda triandra (Forsskal) grasslands in north western Australia. A principal components scaling of image metrics calculated on the imagery defined the state space of the STM, and thereby characterised the different patterns found in the imagery. Using the state space, we were able to relate key events (i.e. fire and rainfall) to both the image data and aboveground biomass, and identified distinct ecological ‘phases’ and ‘transitions’ of the system. The methodology objectively constructs a STM from imagery and, in principle, may be applied to any temporal sequence of imagery captured in any event-driven system. Our approach, by integrating image data, addresses the labour constraint limiting the extensive use of STMs in managing vegetation change in arid and semiarid rangelands.  相似文献   
63.
Fire managers are now realizing that wildfires can be beneficial because they can reduce hazardous fuels and restore fire-dominated ecosystems. A software tool that assesses potential beneficial and detrimental ecological effects from wildfire would be helpful to fire management. This paper presents a simulation platform called FLEAT (Fire and Landscape Ecology Assessment Tool) that integrates several existing landscape- and stand-level simulation models to compute an ecologically based measure that describes if a wildfire is moving the burning landscape towards or away from the historical range and variation of vegetation composition. FLEAT uses a fire effects model to simulate fire severity, which is then used to predict vegetation development for 1, 10, and 100 years into the future using a landscape simulation model. The landscape is then simulated for 5000 years using parameters derived from historical data to create an historical time series that is compared to the predicted landscape composition at year 1, 10, and 100 to compute a metric that describes their similarity to the simulated historical conditions. This tool is designed to be used in operational wildfire management using the LANDFIRE spatial database so that fire managers can decide how aggressively to suppress wildfires. Validation of fire severity predictions using field data from six wildfires revealed that while accuracy is moderate (30-60%), it is mostly dictated by the quality of GIS layers input to FLEAT. Predicted 1-year landscape compositions were only 8% accurate but this was because the LANDFIRE mapped pre-fire composition accuracy was low (21%). This platform can be integrated into current readily available software products to produce an operational tool for balancing benefits of wildfire with potential dangers.  相似文献   
64.
How a landscape is represented is an important structural assumption in spatially-explicit simulation models. Simple models tend to specify just habitat and non-habitat (binary), while more complex models may use multiple levels or a continuum of habitat quality (continuous). How these different representations influence model projections is unclear. To assess the influence of landscape representation on population models, I developed a general, individual-based model with local dispersal and examined population persistence across binary and continuous landscapes varying in the amount and fragmentation of habitat. In binary and continuous landscapes habitat and non-habitat were assigned a unique mean suitability. In continuous landscapes, suitability of each individual site was then drawn from a normal distribution with fixed variance. Populations went extinct less often and abundances were higher in continuous landscapes. Production in habitat and non-habitat was higher in continuous landscapes, because the range of habitat suitability sampled by randomly dispersing individuals was higher than the overall mean habitat suitability. Increasing mortality, dispersal distance, and spatial heterogeneity all increased the discrepancy between continuous and binary landscapes. The effect of spatial structure on the probability of extinction was greater in binary landscapes. These results show that, under certain circumstances, model projections are influenced by how variation in suitability within a landscape is represented. Care should be taken to assess how a given species actually perceives the landscape when conducting population viability analyses or empirical validation of theory.  相似文献   
65.
Structural modifications to landscapes affect the ability of organisms to access different habitat patches. There exist, however, very few general methods by which to relate modifications to expectations of effects, and even fewer that enable understanding of how multiple modifications may interact. In the absence of any guiding principles, ecologists have assumed that interactions will result in complex landscape-scale effects. One way of understanding such effects is through rendering a landscape as a graph or network, among the simplest of which are dendritic networks typified by stream systems. Yet even for stream networks, there are no known general principles concerning the nature of interactions between multiple modifications. We developed a model to describe the ability of fish to access and use different habitat patches within dendritic networks. We used mathematical and numerical analyses of the model to investigate how the habitat value of a network is affected by changes in connectivity and habitat quality, and then to examine interactions between multiple modifications. Rather than showing complex interactions, our analytic and simulation-based results show that the combined effect of multiple modifications approximately equals the sum of individually predicted effects. Dendritic networks thus appear to respond far more simply to multiple modifications than has previously been assumed. These results have implications for stream management planning, and offer a firm foundation from which to better understand population processes within dendritic networks.  相似文献   
66.
浅谈城市绿化建设   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
城市绿化是改善城市生态环境,提升城市形象,提高城市居民生活质量的有效途径之一.笔者提出了城市绿化的概念和内涵,提出了城市绿化必须坚持的三个原则:生态原则、坚持景观效应、坚持经济原则,分析了当前我国城市绿化存在的主要问题,并提出了改进的思路和措施.参10.  相似文献   
67.
In this study territory densities of field-breeding farmland birds were compared on pairwise-selected organic and conventional arable farms for two years. Differences in territory densities between the two farm types were explained examining the effects of three factors on territory densities: (1) non-crop habitats, (2) crop types and (3) within-crop factors. In both years, densities of most species did not differ between organic and conventional farms. Only skylark and lapwing were more abundant on organic farms, but only skylarks showed a consistent pattern over both years. Differences in crop types grown between the two systems were the only explaining factor for differences in densities of skylark. For lapwing, the difference was only partly due to differences in crop type, but differences in within-crop factors (probably as a result of crop management) were likely to have had an effect as well. There were no significant differences in abundance of non-crop habitats between the two farming systems, so this could not explain differences in territory densities.  相似文献   
68.
结合黄河中上游能源化工区重点产业发展战略生态风险宏观性、综合性、复杂性的特点,论文以生态风险景观评价方法及3S技术等为研究手段,综合考虑重点产业发展战略人为风险源及自然风险源,以生态风险受体和终点选择、风险源分析、暴露危害分析、生态风险综合评价及生态风险分区为评价步骤,揭示了重点产业发展战略潜在生态风险空间分异特征。研究结果表明:黄河中上游重点产业战略实施区可划分为三类生态风险监控区,生态风险重点监控区自然风险源分布集中,重点产业人为风险源和自然风险源交织在一起,极易发生生态风险放大效应,生态风险次重点监控区自然生态风险源分布较单一,局部重点产业人为风险源强度增强,将增加区域生态风险水平,生态风险监控区自然生态风险源分布范围较小,潜在生态风险水平相对较低。论文探索了战略环评生态风险评价方法和评价思路,为国内重点产业发展战略生态风险评价提供了借鉴。  相似文献   
69.
Managing wildlife diseases requires an understanding of disease transmission, which may be strongly affected by host population density and landscape features. Transmission models are typically fit from time-series disease prevalence data and modelled based on how the contact rate among hosts is affected by density, which is often assumed to be a linear (density-dependent transmission) or constant (frequency-dependent transmission) relationship. However, long-term time-series data is unavailable for emerging diseases, and this approach cannot account for independent effects of landscape. We developed a mechanistic model based on ecological data to empirically derive the contact rate-density relationship in white-tailed and mule deer in an enzootic region of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Alberta, Canada and to determine whether it was affected by landscape. Using data collected from aerial surveys and GPS-telemetry, we developed empirical relationships predicting deer group size, home range size, and habitat selection to iteratively simulate deer distributions across a range of densities and landscapes. We calculated a relative measure of total per-capita contact rate, which is proportional to the number of other deer contacted per individual per unit time, for each distribution as the sum of pairwise contact rates between a target deer and all other individuals. Each pairwise contact rate was estimated from an empirical relationship developed from GPS-telemetry data predicting pairwise contact rates as a function of home range overlap and landscape structure. Total per-capita contact rates increased as a saturating function of density, supporting a transmission model intermediate between density- and frequency-dependent transmission. This pattern resulted from group sizes that reached an asymptote with increasing deer density, although this relationship was mediated by tree and shrub coverage in the landscape, such that in heavily wooded areas, the contact rate saturated at much lower densities. These results suggest that CWD management based on herd reductions, which require a density-dependent contact rate to be effective, may have variable effects on disease across a single management region. The novel mechanistic approach we employed for estimating effects of density and landscape on transmission is a powerful complement to typical data-fitting approaches for modelling disease transmission.  相似文献   
70.
State-and-transition models (STMs) can represent many different types of landscape change, from simple gradient-driven transitions to complex, (pseudo-) random patterns. While previous applications of STMs have focused on individual states and transitions, this study addresses broader-scale modes of spatial change based on the entire network of states and transitions. STMs are treated as mathematical graphs, and several metrics from algebraic graph theory are applied—spectral radius, algebraic connectivity, and the S-metric. These indicate, respectively, the amplification of environmental change by state transitions, the relative rate of propagation of state changes through the landscape, and the degree of system structural constraints on the spatial propagation of state transitions. The analysis is illustrated by application to the Gualalupe/San Antonio River delta, Texas, with soil types as representations of system states. Concepts of change in deltaic environments are typically based on successional patterns in response to forcings such as sea level change or river inflows. However, results indicate more complex modes of change associated with amplification of changes in system states, relatively rapid spatial propagation of state transitions, and some structural constraints within the system. The implications are that complex, spatially variable state transitions are likely, constrained by local (within-delta) environmental gradients and initial conditions. As in most applications, the STM used in this study is a representation of observed state transitions. While the usual predictive application of STMs is identification of local state changes associated with, e.g., management strategies, the methods presented here show how STMs can be used at a broader scale to identify landscape scale modes of spatial change.  相似文献   
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