全耦合活性污泥模型(FCASM3)Ⅱ:模型校验

以采用AAO污水处理工艺的德清县狮山污水处理厂作为全耦合活性污泥模型(FCASM3)校验的现场试验基地,分别进行了常规水质指标测定和进水水质特征分析等试验研究,依据现场试验结果,完成了对活性污泥系统生物去除营养物质细观机理模型FCASM3的校验工作,动态校验结果表明,FCASM3模型可以对AAO连续流工艺系统实现较准确的细观模拟,营养物质生物去除过程的动态数值模拟结果与实测结果相一致.     

循环经济调控模式研究

借鉴国内外循环经济探索的最新成果,立足国情,研究提出发展循环经济的基本模式和政策措施,主要内容包括四个方面:循环经济理论;国外发展循环经济的实践与探索;我国发展循环经济的基本模式;我国发展循环经济的政策措施。     

西安市LUCC预测生态系统服务价值损失

人类活动作用于土地资源,使LUCC（土地利用／土地覆被变化）在全球环境变化过程中起主导作用,随着国际LUCC研究计划的进展,各国依据本国的实际情况开展研究。对西安市以往五年（2000-2004年）的土地利用基础数据开展调查统计分析,建立灰色系统动态GM（1,1）模型,预测2005—2010年西安市土地利用结构变化状况,尝试计算西安市土地生态系统服务价值损失（简称生态损失）,用一种直观经济指标-货币来反映这种生态损失。预测2010年西安市生态损失为331、84×10^6元。     

Simulation analysis of environmental risk accident and management of high-sulfur gas field development in complex terrain

Environmental risk of high sulfur gas field exploitation has become one of the hot spots of environmental management studies. Severe gas H₂S blowout accidents in recent years have shown that poor understanding and estimates of the poisonous gas movement could lead to dangerous evacuation delays. It is important to evaluate the real concentration of H₂S, especially in complex terrain. Traditional experiential models are not valid in the case of rough terrain, especially in low-lying areas where the gas accumulates. This study, using high sulfur content gas field of Sichuan “Pu Guang gas field” as study object and adopting objective diagnosis of wind field of land following coordinate three dimensions, applied Lagrangian Puff Model and breaking up technique of puffs to simulate the H₂S diffusion condition of blowout accidents produced in the high sulfur content gas field of complex terrain area. The results showed that the H₂S distribution did not occur mainly in low wind direction, and due to the obstruction of the mountain’s body, it accumulated in front of mountain on produced turn over, flowed around submitted jumping type distribution. The mountain waist near the hilltop and low hollow river valley site rapture points simulating contrast showed that the higher the rapture point, the better the diffusing condition of pollutant, the distribution of risk sensitive point decided piping rupture environmental risk size combining the H₂S diffusion result and residential area dispersing in the study area, synthetic judge located in the high rapture point environmental risk was smaller than the low hollow point, thus it was suggested to carryout laying of lining build of equal high line of higher terrain. According to simulation results, the environmental risk management measures aimed at putting down adverse effects were worked out.     

国家环境保护模范城市现状分析及展望

改革开放以来,在我国经济快速发展的同时,产生了巨大的环境问题,为此,原国家环保总局审时度势,开展了创建国家环境保护模范城市的活动。本文对“创模”考核指标的调整情况进行概括,从总体情况、所属行政区、所属行政区级别、面积4个方面对目前“环保模范”城市状况进行了深入地分析,并对日后的“创模”工作进行了展望。     

Modelling forest management within a global vegetation model—Part 2: Model validation from a tree to a continental scale

The construction of a new forest management module (FMM) within the ORCHIDEE global vegetation model (GVM) allows a realistic simulation of biomass changes during the life cycle of a forest, which makes many biomass datasets suitable as validation data for the coupled ORCHIDEE-FM GVM. This study uses three datasets to validate ORCHIDEE-FM at different temporal and spatial scales: permanent monitoring plots, yield tables, and the French national inventory data. The last dataset has sufficient geospatial coverage to allow a novel type of validation: inventory plots can be used to produce continuous maps that can be compared to continuous simulations for regional trends in standing volumes and volume increments. ORCHIDEE-FM performs better than simple statistical models for stand-level variables, which include tree density, basal area, standing volume, average circumference and height, when management intensity and initial conditions are known: model efficiency is improved by an average of 0.11, and its average bias does not exceed 25%. The performance of the model is less satisfying for tree-level variables, including extreme circumferences, tree circumference distribution and competition indices, or when management and initial conditions are unknown. At the regional level, when climate forcing is accurate for precipitation, ORCHIDEE-FM is able to reproduce most productivity patterns in France, such as the local lows of needleleaves in the Parisian basin and of broadleaves in south-central France. The simulation of water stress effects on biomass in the Mediterranean region, however, remains problematic, as does the simulation of the wood increment for coniferous trees. These pitfalls pertain to the general ORCHIDEE model rather than to the FMM. Overall, with an average bias seldom exceeding 40%, the performance of ORCHIDEE-FM is deemed reliable to use it as a new modelling tool in the study of the effects of interactions between forest management and climate on biomass stocks of forests across a range of scales from plot to country.     

基于景观中性模型的不同竞争力外来种入侵对栖息地毁坏的响应

栖息地毁坏和生物入侵被认为是全球物种多样性的两大威胁,也是当前研究的热点。同时,两者的共同作用将比单独作用所带来的物种多样性丧失更大。本文基于竞争-扩散均衡机制,考虑了外来种的不同竞争力,结合景观中性模型和元胞自动机模型,模拟了外来种入侵对栖息地毁坏（栖息地破碎和面积丧失）的响应。研究结果表明：1）外来种入侵成功将首先威胁竞争力与其相邻的弱物种;2）栖息地毁坏与种间竞争共同决定着外来种入侵的成功与否。当栖息地破碎促进了与外来种竞争力相邻的本地强物种时,将会抑制入侵;当其抑制了与外来种竞争力相邻的本地强物种时,则会促进入侵。当栖息地丧失促进了外来种相邻的本地强物种时,将会抑制入侵;当栖息地丧失抑制了外来种相邻的本地强物种,将一定程度地促进入侵,但随着丧失面积的增加,则转为抑制。因此,为了抑制不同竞争力的外来种入侵,应采取不同的栖息地保护策略,并保护和促进其竞争力相邻的本地强物种。     

Mechanistic insight into the biofilm formation and process performance of a passive aeration ditch (PAD) for decentralized wastewater treatment

• A Passive Aeration Ditch was developed to treat decentralized wastewater. • A model was developed to describe the process performance. • A high C/N ratio facilitates microbial growth but nitrification deteriorates. • A high salinity decreases both organic and nitrogen contaminants removal. Decentralized wastewater containing elevated salinity is an emerging threat to the local environment and sanitation in remote coastal communities. Regarding the cost and treatment efficiencies, we propose a passive aeration ditch (PAD) using non-woven polyester fabric as a feasible bubbleless aerator and biofilm carrier for wastewater treatment. Consideration has been first given to PAD’s efficacy in treating saline decentralized wastewater, and then to the impact of chemical oxygen demand-to-nitrogen (C/N) ratio and salinity on biofilm formation. A multispecies model incorporating the salinity effect has been developed to depict the system performance and predict the microbial community. Results showed that the PAD system had great capacity for pollutants removal. The biofilm thickness increased at a higher C/N ratio because of the boost of aerobic heterotrophs and denitrifying bacteria, which consequently improved the COD and total nitrogen removal. However, this led to the deterioration of ammonia removal. Moreover, while a higher salinity benefited the biofilm growth, the contaminant removal efficiencies decreased because the salinity inhibited the activity of aerobic heterotrophs and reduced the abundance of nitrifying bacteria inside the biofilm. Based on the model simulation, feed water with salinity below 2% and C/N ratio in a range of 1 to 3 forms a biofilm that can reach relatively high organic matter and ammonia removal. These findings not only show the feasibility of PAD in treatment of saline decentralized wastewater, but also offer a systematic strategy to predict and optimize the process performance.     

Assessing the impact of biological control of Plutella xylostella through the application of Lotka–Volterra model

The Lotka–Volterra model was applied to the population densities of diamondback moth (DBM), Plutella xylostella (L.) and its exotic larval parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum (Hellen) data that was collected earlier by icipe's DBM biological control team. The collections were done for 15 months before the release and 36 months after release of the parasitoid in two areas; in Werugha, Coast Province of Kenya and Tharuni, Central Province of Kenya, respectively. For each area in pre- and post-release periods, we estimated Lotka–Volterra model parameters from the minimization of the loss function between the theoretical and experimental time-series datasets following the Nelder-Mead multidimensional method. The model estimated a reduction in the value of the steady state of DBM population from 4.86 to 2.17 in Werugha and from 6.11 to 3.76 and 3.45 (with and without exclusion of the time before D. semiclausum recovery) in Tharuni when transiting from the pre- and post-release periods, respectively. This change was a consequence of the newly introduced parasitoid, in the areas. The study presented a successful and detailed technique for non-linear model parameters restoration which was demonstrated by the correct mimicking of empirical datasets from the classical biological control with D. semiclausum, in different areas of Kenya. The applied model has measured the parasitoids impact on the DBM biological control through a quantitative estimate of the effectiveness of the newly introduced species D. semiclausum. These equations may therefore be used as tool for decision making in the implementation for such pests’ management system strategy.     

Recruitment and attrition of associated plants under a shading crop canopy: Model selection and calibration

Associated plant and animal diversity provides ecosystem services within crop production systems. The importance of the maintenance or restoration of diversity is therefore increasingly acknowledged. Here we study the population dynamics of associated annual plants (‘weeds’) during the growth of a crop in a season and introduce a minimal model to characterize the recruitment and attrition of the associated plants under the influence of shading by the crop. A mechanistically based, logistic, light interception model was parameterized with light interception measurements in two single crops (barley and rye) and in mixtures of these cereals with peas. Population dynamics data were collected for the annuals Papaver rhoeas, Centaurea cyanus, Chrysanthemum segetum, and Misopates orontium. A minimal population dynamics model was identified for each annual plant species, using system identification techniques as model selection and calibration.