基于情景构建的应急预案体系优化策略及方法

为了进一步优化我国现有应急预案体系,从应急管理实践中分析梳理出4方面问题,包括:“在指导理念上依然没有充分体现应急准备的理念”“应急预案体系在微观、中观和宏观层面依然存在结构性问题”“应急预案的内容存在‘概念性’内容较多的情况,导致操作性和针对性不强”“预案动态管理滞后,持续改进机制尚未形成”;针对现存问题,提出基于情景构建的优化策略和方法,认为“情景构建”不但可以指导编制者分析应急需求、明确应急目标、规划应急程序,有效支撑应急预案的编制,而且可以派生出“基于情景链条的预案衔接策略”“基于任务协同的预案衔接策略”“基于资源约束的预案衔接策略”,进而从微观层面上推进预案体系的优化。研究结果可以作为各级政府和企业应急预案体系构建的参考和借鉴。     

制订县级生态市战略与规划的探讨

本文根据宜春生态市实施规划三年来在经济、社会、生态三方面取得的明显效益的实践,从三个方面探讨了县级生态市战略与规划的制订方法与具体内容,具有一定的实践性和可借鉴性.     

Are female boat-tailed grackle colonies neutral assemblages?

Female boat-tailed grackles (Quiscalus major) nest in colonies, and apparently settle independently of male activities. Associations between colony females may be mutually beneficial (cooperative hypothesis) or females may be penalized by associating (competitive hypothesis). Contrary to predictions based on either cooperative or competitive behavior, (1) reproductive success was not related to colony size nor to internest distance; (2) intracolony nesting synchronies were the same as those of the whole population, and within colonies, there was no relationship between the timing and spacing of nearest-neighbor nests; and (3) already established females were only occasionally aggressive toward females attempting to settle near them, and their aggressive response was independent of their stage of nesting. The results suggest that females act independently of each other and do not affect each other's fitness (neutral female hypothesis). Colonies may be neutral aggregations in sites secure from ground predators. Although females benefit by co-occupying predator-free sites, advantages and disadvantages of colomality do not appear to be related to intrasexual association.     

Inter-colonial selection for the maintenance of cooperative breeding in the ant Pristomyrmex pungens: a laboratory experiment

The queenless ant Pristomyrmex pungens has an unusual social structure, in which all workers reproduce parthenogenetically and help others. Laboratory experiments manipulating the proportion of post-reproductive foragers in the colony at various rates suggested that colonies with 5–10% forager ratios had the maximum efficiency per-worker. This result suggests that the cooperative colonies may be maintained by colony-level natural selection. Non-cooperative mutants that oviposit but do not forage should increase in relative frequency in the colony in the short term. However, decreased colony productivity and the resulting competition among colonies might eliminate colonies dominated by such mutants in the long term. P. pungens has a viscous population without migration between colonies, which may facilitate this process.     

Portuguese coastal zones and the new coastal management plans

Coastal zones in Portugal, as interface areas between land and sea, have problems related to the growing human pressure in terms of changes in land use associated with urban and industrial occupation, new accessibility (ports, motorways) and traffic flows, intensification of recreational use (beaches, water sports) and excessive fishing. Impacts include deterioration of water quality and sediments; alteration and degradation of natural habitats; new hydrodynamic situations; major landscape changes: and rapid changes in habits and way of life of the local populations and increased exposure of populations and assets to natural and induced risks (storms, accidents, spills, explosions). Plans for the Management of the Coastal Zone (POOC) have been developed and seven of them have been approved, while two similar plans are at a final stage of preparation. Together they cover the entire coast of Portugal. Their implementation and assessment could be a first step towards an integrated management of the Portuguese coastal zones. River Basin Management Plans (PBH) have been concluded and recently approved for the whole country. However, these plans do not consider estuarine systems and some other issues related to coastal systems. The National Water Plan (PNA) is under public presentation and discussion. Several ‘key messages’ are presented in this paper as a contribution for assessment of the proposals of this plan on issues related with coastal waters.     

大清河流域社会经济发展与水资源供需能力分析

本文着重研究了大清河流域社会经济发展与水资源之间的相互关系,运用可持续发展的观点,对大清河流域的发展进行了预测,并结合预测方案提出了解决问题的建议。     

关于荒漠化问题的几点想法

荒漠化问题是个全球问题,受到了广泛的关注.就目前我国的荒漠化问题,本文提出了几点想法.     

三维铝型材挤压模多参数优化

以一个导流组合模为例,利用神经网络建立模具参数的数学模型,用遗传算法对参数优化。其中由正交法设计得到实验样本,由软试模提取模具的SDV值,将其作为优化目标。最终实验结果与优化值吻合,为建立和控制挤压模参数提供了一种行之有效的手段。     

Upstream-downstream cooperation approach in Guanting Reservoir watershed

A case study is introduced and discussed concerning water dispute of misuse and pollution between up- and down-stream parts. The relations between water usage and local industrial structures are analyzed. Results show it is important to change industrial structures of the target region along with controlling water pollution by technical and engineering methods. Three manners of upstream-downstream cooperation are presented and discussed based on the actual conditions of Guangting Reservoir watershed. Two typical scenarios are supposed and studied along with the local plan on water resources development. The best solution for this cooperation presents a good way to help the upstream developing in a new pattern of eco-economy.     

城镇生活污水就近引浇防沙治沙工程林

城镇生活污水排入水体 ,严重影响水资源的使用价值。沙漠地区因缺水 ,造成许多地方造林失败。本文提出了将城镇生活污水就近引浇防沙治沙工程林的构想 ,并从经济和环境影响两个方面详细论述了该方案的比较优势