代际财富均衡模型研究

本文通过对可持续发展的核心内容分析。探讨了代际均衡的内含,并建立了一组代际财富均衡模型。     

土地流转契约稳定性对转入土地农户化肥施用强度和环境效率的影响

本研究目的在于分析土地流转契约稳定性对转入土地农户化肥施用强度和环境效率的影响,并利用安徽省414户种粮大户的调研数据进行实证检验。研究方法包括DEA-SBM模型、多元回归模型和Tobit模型。结果表明：（1）土地租期、土地租金对种粮大户种植小麦、水稻、玉米的化肥施用强度分别有显著负向和显著正向的影响。（2）种粮大户种植小麦、水稻、玉米的平均环境效率分别为0.54、0.58、0.59,存在比较严重的环境效率损失;土地租期、土地租金对种粮大户种植小麦、水稻、玉米的环境效率分别有显著正向和显著负向的影响。本文主要结论是提高土地流转契约的稳定性有利于降低转入土地农户的施肥强度,进而提高农地规模经营的环境效率。     

中国农地流转与农民收入的时空耦合关系及空间效应

基于中国省域2003—2018年面板数据,通过构建耦合协调发展模型,分析农地流转与农民收入耦合协调发展时空演变特征,并运用空间杜宾模型剖析农地流转对不同类型农民收入的空间效应。结果表明：（1）在时间维度上,农地流转与农民收入的耦合协调发展程度趋于优化,但农地流转一直以滞后于农业收入为主,农地流转由同步于非农收入转为超前于非农收入。（2）在空间维度上,农地流转与不同类型农民收入的耦合协调发展程度在不同省区之间差异明显。（3）农地流转显著促进了本地区农业收入与非农收入的提高,且农地流转对农民人均收入产生直接效应与溢出效应;虽然户均农地规模增加并没有显著提高非农收入,但农地的规模经济使得户均农地规模增加,显著促进了农业收入提高。     

环境信息公开有助于我国的污染防治攻坚战吗？

环境信息公开作为信息化时代环境治理的新型武器,对我国这样一个具有特殊财政体制和政治激励模式的发展中国家而言,其在污染防治攻坚战中的效果有待深入探究。本文基于城市污染源监管信息公开指数(PITI),以2008—2016年120个城市数据为样本,采用动态面板数据模型和系统GMM估计方法,实证检验了环境信息公开的污染减排效应,并重点分析了不同城市区位和城市规模下存在的异质性效应。结果表明:环境信息公开有助于污染防治,改善环境质量,还能有效缓解财政分权引致的环境污染问题。环境信息公开对污染排放的抑制作用呈现“马太效应”,对东、中、西部地区和大、中、小城市的影响均依次递减。对东、中部地区和大、中型城市,其治污效应较显著,而在西部地区和小城市尚不见效。积极推动全面环境信息公开,构建环境多元共治的长效机制,是决胜污染防治攻坚战的关键所在。     

Government liabilities for disaster risk in industrialized countries: a case study of Australia

This paper explores sovereign risk preferences against direct and indirect natural disasters losses in industrialized countries. Using Australia as a case study, the analysis compares expected disaster losses and government capacity to finance losses. Utilizing a national disaster loss dataset, extreme value theory is applied to estimate an all-hazard annual loss distribution. Unusually but critically, the dataset includes direct as well as indirect losses, allowing for the analysis to consider the oft-ignored issue of indirect losses. Expected annual losses (direct, and direct plus indirect) are overlaid with a risk-layer approach, to distinguish low, medium and extreme loss events. Each risk layer is compared to available fiscal resources for financing losses, grounded in the political reality of Australian disaster financing. When considering direct losses only, we find support for a risk-neutral preference on the part of the Australian government for low and medium loss levels, and a risk-averse preference in regard to extreme losses. When indirect losses are also estimated, we find that even medium loss levels are expected to overwhelm available fiscal resources, thereby violating the available resources assumption underlying arguments for sovereign risk neutrality. Our analysis provides empirical support for the assertion that indirect losses are a major, under-recognised concern for industrialized countries. A risk-averse preference in regard to medium and extreme loss events recommends enhanced investment in both corrective and prospective risk reduction in relation to these risks level, in particular to reduce indirect losses.     

WATER EXCHANGES: TOOLS TO BEAT EL NIÑO CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE1

ABSTRACT: Using a case study of the Yakima River Valley in Washington State, this paper shows that relatively simple tools can be used to forecast the impact of the El Niño phenomenon on water supplies to irrigated agriculture, that this information could be used to estimate the significantly shifted probability distribution of water shortages in irrigated agriculture during El Niño episodes, and that these shifted probabilities can be used to estimate the value of exchanges of water between crops to relieve some of the adverse consequences of such shortages under western water law. Further, recently devised water‐trading tools, while not completely free under western water law to respond to forecasted El Niño episodes (ocean circulation patterns), are currently being employed during declared drought to reduce the devastating effects of water shortages in junior water districts on high valued perennial crops. Additional institutional flexibility is needed to take full advantage of climate forecasting, but even current tools clearly could prove useful in controlling the effects of climate variability in irrigated agriculture. Analysis shows the significant benefit of temporarily transferring or renting water rights from low‐value to high‐value crops, based on El Niño forecasts.     

WATER AND WATER RIGHTS TRANSFERS: A NEW POLICY FOR NEBRASKA1

ABSTRACT: Nebraska has abundant supplies of high quality surface and ground water. The U.S. Supreme Court decision in 1982, declaring ground water to be an article of commerce, is widely perceived as giving neighboring states easier access to Nebraska water. Some neighboring states, particularly Colorado and Wyoming, are in water short situations. Additionally, current legal restrictions on certain types of transfers within the State could be inhibiting the “highest and best use” of Nebraska's water. Thus, in 1987 the Nebraska Legislature called for the development of a new water policy for Nebraska that would promote the economically efficient use of water, yet protect the environment as well as the rights of individuals (for example, third parties) and the public. Through an interagency study employing an extensive public involvement process, a policy to be recommended to the Legislature in 1989 emerged. The policy revises the basic definition of water rights and transfers and eliminates most of the inconsistencies in the water allocation system by treating most types of water resources, most types of water users, and most locations of use similarly in the permitting process. (The principal exception is the individual irrigator using ground water on the overlying land where overlying land is one government surveyed section; such use is not defined to be a transfer nor is a permit required.) An impact assessment would be required of most new water uses except on site uses of ground water. Compensation measures could be specified as a condition of the permit where appropriate. The permit would be issued only if the benefits of the proposed transfer clearly outweigh adverse effects that could not be avoided or effectively compensated. The policy allows for the sale or lease of “salvaged” water. It calls for the State to facilitate transfers by acting as a clearinghouse for potential buyers and sellers, and it allows the State to sponsor water projects. An annual fee to be paid by many water users, in order to provide a fund for compensation and for state sponsored water projects, was proposed. However, it met with extensive opposition. Thus, the policy recommends only that the Legislature examine potential funding programs and equitable user fees.     

Finding Water for Growth: New Sources,New Tools,New Challenges1

Abstract: Rapidly growing regions such as the western United States face difficult challenges in mobilizing new water supplies to meet new demands. Environmental concerns have curtailed the scope for large new surface storage projects, and widespread basin overdraft has limited ground water’s potential as a source of expansion. Drawing on the California experience, this article explores modern water planning approaches, which focus on a portfolio of options including nontraditional sources (recycling, desalination, underground storage) and more efficient use of existing supplies (conservation and water marketing). It reviews the advantages and drawbacks of the elements of the portfolio, provides examples of innovative planning approaches, and assesses the role for supportive government policies.     

财政自主能力与碳经济绩效：产业结构升级的中介效应

本文基于1997-2016年中国省级动态面板数据,从产业结构升级视角实证分析了区域财政自主能力作用于碳经济绩效的影响机理。研究发现：产业结构升级在财政自主能力影响碳经济绩效中发挥了中介效应;在高分权地区,财政自主能力能够通过产业结构升级促进碳经济绩效的增长;在低分权地区,财政自主能力会抑制产业结构升级并对碳经济绩效产生不利影响。进一步研究发现,在非农产业占比与非国有企业占比较高的省（区、市）域,财政自主能力能够通过产业结构升级对碳经济绩效产生更强的促进作用。本研究结论能够对地方政府从自身财政自主能力推动产业结构升级,为实现区域经济增长和环境优化的协同发展的政策制定提供理论指导。     

The politics of interbasin transfers: socio‐environmental impacts and actor strategies in Tunisia

Mediterranean wetlands are of key interest in the preservation of biodiversity. However, their ecological water requirement is in constant competition with human uses, particularly in a context of aridity and climate change. This paper examines the case of the Ichkeul Lake‐Lagoon system located in the north of Tunisia in a river basin that is heavily contributing to the water supply of southern regions through water transfers. It maps out the various actors involved, their stakes, discourses and strategies, and explains the current degradation of the Ichkeul system by unpacking the decision‐making power of these actors. It confirms that marginal social groups, ecosystems and next generations are the main parties affected by current water allocation patterns.