The influence of field-scale heterogeneity on the infiltration and entrapment of dense nonaqueous phase liquids in saturated formations

Numerical simulations are used for the systematic exploration of the migration and entrapment of dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) in heterogeneous formations. Ensembles of realizations of random, spatially correlated permeability fields are generated and employed in model simulations of a spill event. Statistical techniques are then used to quantify the sensitivity of model predictions to input parameters, thereby identifying the parameters or processes that may be of primary importance in the determination of organic liquid distributions in heterogeneous systems. Results of the study indicate that the most critical factors in modeling organic entrapment include the spill release rate, reliable estimates of the mean, variance, and vertical correlation scale of the formation permeability, and an accurate representation of the correlation between the capillary pressure–saturation function and the permeability. In contrast, the hydraulic gradient and cross-correlation of residual saturations with permeabilities are found to have only minor influence on organic liquid distributions in such heterogeneous formations.     

Description of hydrogeologic heterogeneity and evaluation of radionuclide transport at an underground nuclear test

Realistic models of contaminant transport in groundwater demand detailed characterization of the spatial distribution of subsurface hydraulic properties, while at the same time programmatic constraints may limit collection of pertinent hydraulic data. Fortunately, alternate forms of data can be used to improve characterization of spatial variability. We utilize a methodology that augments sparse hydraulic information (hard data) with more widely available hydrogeologic information to generate equiprobable maps of hydrogeologic properties that incorporate patterns of connected permeable zones. Geophysical and lithologic logs are used to identify hydrogeologic categories and to condition stochastic simulations using Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS). The resulting maps are populated with hydraulic conductivity values using field data and Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS). Maps of subsurface hydrogeologic heterogeneity are generated for the purpose of examining groundwater flow and transport processes at the Faultless underground nuclear test, Central Nevada Test Area (CNTA), through large-scale, three-dimensional numerical modeling. The maps provide the basis for simulation of groundwater flow, while transport of radionuclides from the nuclear cavity is modeled using particle tracking methods. Sensitivity analyses focus on model parameters that are most likely to reduce the long travel times observed in the base case. The methods employed in this study have improved our understanding of the spatial distribution of preferential flowpaths at this site and provided the critical foundation on which to build models of groundwater flow and transport. The results emphasize that the impacts of uncertainty in hydraulic and chemical parameters are dependent on the radioactive decay of specific species, with rapid decay magnifying the effects of parameters that change travel time.     

An estimating function approach to the inference of catch-effort models

A class of catch-effort models, which allows for heterogeneous removal probabilities, is proposed for closed populations. The model includes three types of removal probabilities: multiplicative, Poisson and logistic. The usual removal and generalized removal models then become special cases. The equivalence of the proposed model and a special type of capture-recapture model is discussed. A unified estimating function approach is used to estimate the initial population size. For the homogeneous model, the resulting population size estimator based on optimal estimating functions is asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimator. One advantage for our approach is that it can be extended to handle the heterogeneous populations in which the maximum likelihood estimators do not exist. The bootstrap method is applied to construct variance estimators and confidence intervals. We illustrate the method by two real data examples. Results of a simulation study investigating the performance of the proposed estimation procedure are presented.     

环境异质性对三峡库区支流香溪河附石硅藻群落的影响及驱动作用

环境异质性在一定程度上不仅可以增加物种多样性,而且影响了陆生生物群落的稳定性.然而,环境异质性如何影响水生态系统附石硅藻群落的物种多样性却较少报道.因此,以三峡库区支流香溪河的附石硅藻为研究对象,通过量化和比较香溪河在时间尺度上的环境异质性,探究其在驱动物种多样性变化的作用.结果表明,环境异质性、分类β-多样性和功能β-多样性均表现为非蓄水期显著高于蓄水期,且周转组分均对不同水文期β-多样性贡献较大,而分类α-多样性则是蓄水期显著高于非蓄水期.此外,功能α-多样性中除功能丰富度非蓄水期显著高于蓄水期外,功能均匀度和功能分散度均无显著差异.基于相似或相异度矩阵的多元回归(MRM)分析表明,NH⁺₄-N和SiO^2-₃-Si是影响非蓄水期香溪河附石硅藻群落的关键环境异质因子,而影响蓄水期香溪河附石硅藻群落的关键环境异质因子为NH⁺₄-N、 SiO^2-₃-Si和TP.这表明三峡库区不同水文期的环境异质性显著影响附石硅藻的...     

区域水-能源-粮食绿色效率、地区差异及影响因素

基于绿色发展理念建立多维角度投入-产出指标体系,构建Meta-SSBM和Meta-Malmquist-Luenberger模型,测度2004～2018年中国30个省(区)水-能源-粮食绿色静态和动态效率,并运用泰尔指数分解东部、中部和西部绿色发展水平的时空分异特征.结果表明:(1)由于技术差距无效率而导致的在共同前沿和...     

云南拉市海流域退耕还湿对农户的增收效应

基于云南拉市海流域2005～2016年的农户面板数据,采用双重差分法(DID)并借助PSM-DID、工具变量、安慰剂测试等多种稳健性检验工具,对退耕还湿的增收效应进行实证分析.研究发现,退耕还湿对农户增收具有显著的促进作用,使家庭总收入和人均收入分别提高了39.2％和43.5％,这一结论在进行多项稳健性检验后仍然成立;...     

环境规制对技术创新效率的影响分析——基于创新链视角的两阶段实证检验

新古典经济学理论认为,严格的环境规制会提高污染治理成本,挤占技术创新活动的资金,对技术创新产生"挤出效应"。而"波特假说"认为,长期内适当的环境规制政策将对企业的科技创新活动起到刺激性推动作用,可弥补因规制而增加的额外成本,从而形成"创新补偿效应"。这个观点表明环境规制对于企业的技术创新可能存在非线性影响效应。另外,技术创新要经历研究开发阶段与成果转化阶段,即从资源投入到产生经济效益的过程。本文基于系统观和创新链视角,创新性地构建两阶段关联DEA模型测算技术创新活动的投入产出效率,并运用中国2011——2017年间的省级面板数据进行回归检验,探讨环境规制强度对研究开发阶段和成果转化阶段技术创新效率的非线性影响效应,同时将中国划分为东部、中西部两大区域分别考察,进一步揭示环境规制对技术创新效率影响的空间异质性和阶段性特点,最后提出相应政策建议。     

基于地理探测器的中国陆地生态系统土壤有机碳空间异质性影响因子分析

中国陆地生态系统土壤有机碳库对全球生态系统碳平衡具有显著影响.为揭示土壤碳库空间分布的潜在主控因子并为今后建立碳库空间分布模型提供依据,利用地理探测器对中国陆地生态系统表层土壤(0—20 cm)有机碳密度的影响因子(气温、降水量、DEM、NDVI、陆地生态系统类型、人口密度)进行空间分异性探测和定量归因.结果表明:自然...     

邻里效应对牧户载畜率决策的影响——北方牧区的经验证据

草畜平衡管理已经在中国实施近20年,但天然草原超载过牧问题尚未得到根本解决,仍然是制约北方草原生态恢复和畜牧业健康发展的关键因素。如何进一步降低牧户载畜率,实现草畜平衡是亟待解决的问题。该研究基于社会经济学视角,理论分析了牧户载畜率决策邻里效应的存在性及其对牧户载畜率的影响效应、作用机制及异质性,并利用2020年在内蒙古、甘肃两省牧区对820户牧户的微观调查数据,采用线性均值模型、中介效应模型和分组回归等方法进行了实证检验。结果表明:(1)牧户载畜率决策存在邻里效应,表现出"近墨者黑"特征,且这一效应在控制内生性后依旧存在;牧户会受邻里高载畜率、高超载过牧比例的消极驱动呈现出高载畜率和高超载过牧概率,从而陷入超载过牧的恶性循环。(2)机制分析表明,邻里效应通过提高牧户畜牧业预期收益和降低牧户的心理负担提升牧户载畜率。(3)调节作用分析表明,邻里效应会受到榜样群体的调节,村干部、党员、富人和能人等榜样群体的负向示范强化了载畜率决策的邻里效应,抑制牧户降低载畜率。(4)异质性分析表明,邻里效应在低载畜率、贫困牧户、汉族牧户和受教育程度高的牧户群体中作用更小;当政府外部生态监管严格和村域内部非正式制度健全时,邻里效应对牧户降低载畜率的抑制作用更小。根据以上结论,建议政府在微观草畜平衡管理中,通过打造高效畜牧业样板、树立生态典型、强化舆论压力、改善生态监管和注重政策瞄准等方式,破解载畜率决策邻里效应的负面影响,降低牧户载畜率。     

工业园区和城区VOCs组成及化学活性的空间差异对清远大气臭氧污染分布的影响

工业化与城镇化交替演进使珠三角及其周边地区土地利用类型较为复杂。快速的城市化进程使城市建成区与大量村镇工业园区互相交错。这种变化势必会增加挥发性有机物(VOCs)在组分构成和空间分布上的复杂性,并对臭氧(O₃)污染的时空变化产生影响。为厘清这种排放的空间异质性特征及其对O₃污染分布的影响,分别选取可以代表清远市典型工业园区和城市建成区的站点开展观测研究。结果表明:工业园区和城市建成区VOCs浓度水平和污染特征有较大的空间差异,其中代表村镇工业园区的龙塘站VOCs日均浓度为30.42×10^-9,高于代表城市建成区的技师学院站(17.32×10^-9)。龙塘站二甲苯和甲苯的臭氧生成潜势(OFP)比技师学院站高57.6×10^-9,且该值相当于技师学院站排名前10位物种OFP的总和。气象分析表明:2个站点之间并非彼此的上、下风向,而是共同受到局地气团的影响。源解析结果表明:源排放是造成这种空间异质性的内因,其中交通源对技师学院的贡献更高,而工业相关排放源对龙塘的贡献更高。该研究进一步比较了周边站点O₃时间序列的一致性,并模拟2个站点的O₃生成速率。研究发现O₃在局地范围内变化较小,高VOCs排放的地点对局地O₃有较高的贡献,局地内不同地点的O₃生成过程也存在较大差异。据此,笔者提出O₃污染防控建议:短期内可通过技术手段和观测数据发现O₃污染的重要贡献点,并进行针对性的"散乱污"清理整治和涉VOCs行业综合整治,长期看应科学合理规划城市发展布局和产业布局,预留城市通风廊道,以有效减少O₃污染。