社区防灾减灾对策的复杂性科学问题

"社区研究"已有约150年的历史,社区的防灾减灾对策是一个综合性的科学问题。充分发挥社区的防灾减灾功能十分必要,确立社区防灾减灾最优对策在中国的现代化建设和可持续发展战略中具有重要意义。利用复杂性科学的理论和模型来处理社区的防灾减灾对策问题,是系统科学或复杂性科学中的一个有意义的发展方向。本文提出并分析了社区防灾减灾对策研究中的4个问题,即如何界定社区防灾减灾应急管理的角色和方向;何为防灾减灾安全社区;如何预警突发性灾难事件;社区防灾减灾系统是如何自组织的。本文引入复杂性科学理论对社区的防灾减灾对策进行了研究,讨论了复杂性科学应用于社区防灾减灾对策的理论框架。     

The urban poor in Dhaka City: their struggles and coping strategies during the floods of 1998

Bangladesh experienced one of the worst floods in recorded history in 1998. This paper focuses on the needs and coping strategies of the urban poor in Dhaka City, which had been very badly affected. The city's roads were completely under water, and most areas were water-logged with drainage and sewage systems blocked. Rising water levels compelled many slum dwellers to move to temporary shelters and relief camps. Women and children were the worst affected. The lack of sanitation facilities and privacy forced women and children to defecate in their own homes. There was an acute scarcity of safe drinking-water, and food prices rose dramatically. Diarrhoea, fever and colds were the most common illnesses affecting the poor. The floods left many of them unemployed, and in some families, the result was increased tension and incidents of domestic violence. In some areas, members felt pressured to repay micro-credit loans. Most NGOs, however, suspended loan repayments. During this period, a committee was set up to co-ordinate and work towards addressing some of the main post-flood problems.     

机场内部噪声现状多指标评价与防治研究

为分析飞机噪声对机场内部人员的影响，在某军用机场场区内选取九个主要建筑物作为研究对象，对其进行现场噪声测量，在实测数据的基础上，采用多项指标进行机场内部噪声环境评价和分析。结果表明：机场工作人员一直暴露在高噪声环境中，而且各类噪声事件均对其工作和身体健康产生影响，内场营区的声环境质量比外场工作区稍好，但离标准声环境仍有较大距离。最后结合军用机场的特点提出一些有针对性的防治措施。     

长江流域洪灾与生态破坏的关系浅析:Ⅲ生态重建与减灾对策

在分析长江流域１９９８ 年洪水灾害与生态环境破坏的关系的基础上，提出了生态重建规划应以可持续发展为指导思想，坚持经济建设、社会发展与生态环境保护相协调的基本原则；指出了生态保护、恢复、重建的要点与方略；提出了防灾、减灾的对策建议。     

Regulation (EC) No. 1107/2009 and upcoming challenges for exposure assessment of plant protection products--Harmonisation or national modelling approaches?

In the new European Pesticide Regulation (EC) No. 1107/2009, the harmonisation of approaches for estimation of the environmental exposure of pesticides is considered a major goal. Several member states currently require their own models for the calculation of predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) in surface water. The variety of methods makes risk evaluations rather time-consuming for both notifiers and evaluating authorities. In the present study we compare surface water concentrations of 19 compounds using EU and country-specific models and risk assessment approaches to evaluate to which extent the resulting estimated exposure concentrations differ. Our results show that EU and country specific approaches and the resulting surface water concentrations differ considerably regarding basic model assumptions and assessment methods. The results indicate that the aimed harmonisation of risk assessment approaches within the EU will be difficult based on current models. New scenarios may help to achieve a harmonisation taking country-specific features into account.     

“碳中和”愿景下我国碳排放现状和减排路径

控制以CO₂为主的温室气体排放，“力争2030年前实现碳达峰，争取2060年前实现碳中和”是我国近年来面临的重大任务。碳排放研究是实现“双碳”目标的基础和前提，从碳排放测算、碳排放影响因素分析、行业碳排放研究三个方面对我国碳排放研究现状进行梳理，对近年来研究的重点方向、主要成果和目前存在的主要问题进行分析，并结合我国的“双碳”目标提出现阶段我国“以完善政策标准与加大政府扶持为基础，以产业结构调整与新兴产业发展、能源结构调整与新能源技术发展为核心，以探索CCUS（碳捕集、利用与封存）技术和增加碳汇及对居民低碳消费倾向的引导和培养为导向”的碳减排路径。     

北京城市灾害及新世纪安全战略

在归纳分析北京城市灾害源的基础上 ,研究了北京城市综合减灾战略规划的指导思想、基本原则及技术路线。重点论述了城市科学减灾的研究模式及方法     

A synthesis of environmental and recreational mitigation requirements at hydropower projects in the United States

Environmental mitigation plays an important role in the environmentally sustainable development of hydropower resources. However, comprehensive data on mitigation required by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) at United States (US) hydropower projects is lacking. Therefore, our objective was to create a comprehensive database of mitigation required at non-federal hydropower projects and provide a synthesis of available mitigation data. Mitigation data was collated for over 300 plants licensed or relicensed from 1998 through 2013. We observed that the majority of FERC mitigation requirements deal with either hydrologic flows or recreation and that hydropower plants in the Pacific Northwest had the highest number of requirements. Our data indicate opportunities exist to further explore hydropower mitigation in the areas of environmental flows, fish passage, and water quality. Connecting these data with ecological outcomes, actual flow data, and larger landscape level information will be necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation and ultimately inform regulators, managers, and planners.     

Improving flood risk analysis for effectively supporting the implementation of flood risk management plans: The case study of “Serio” Valley

The EU Flood Directive 2007/60 requires the assessment and delineation of flood risk maps. The latter should provide the required knowledge for the development of flood risk management plans (FRMPs), that should deal with all features of risk management: e.g. preparation, protection and prevention, comprising also the phase of the flood forecasting and warning systems, in addition to the emergency management. The risk maps, delineated through the expert-drive qualitative (EDQ) approach currently adopted in several European countries, such as Italy, fail to represent the information base that needed by stakeholders for selecting the suitable objectives and designing the appropriate mitigation actions for flood risk management. In the EDQ approach, the flood hazard and the potential damage degree maps are combined by means of a matrix to obtain a qualitative flood risk map. However, the performance of the risk matrix is not usually rigorous validated and, therefore, presents limits, such as subjective and not careful explained interpretation of rating and poor resolution, (due to range compression), that can produce errors in comparative ranking of risk areas. In this context, this paper proposes the FloodRisk approach that aims to improve the efficacy of flood risk map overcoming the limits of EDQ approach in supplying the knowledge base that allow to analyze costs and benefits of potential mitigation measures. However, the proposed approach is also able to involve the citizens in the flood management process, enhancing their awareness. An application of FloodRisk procedure is showed on a pilot case in “Serio” Valley, (North Italy), and its strengths and limits, in terms of additional efforts required in its application compared with EDQ procedure, have been discussed focusing on the efficacy of the outcomes provided for the fulfillment of FRMPs. The results have demonstrated the ability of FloodRisk, respect to EDQ approach, to distinguish successfully different levels of vulnerability of exposure elements, thanks to the use of asset value and depth-damage curves, that allows a suitably evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. In this light, a successfully application of a cost-benefit analysis of FloodRisk approach on a portfolio of alternative mitigation actions, (i.e. structural and non-structural measurements), has been demonstrated on the proposed study case. However, FloodRisk requires additional information, e.g. water depths assessment and assets values, and it needs a proper analysis and communication of the uncertainty in its results. Although they still exist limitations that impede, at present, the FloodRisk application without an adequate understanding and a critical consideration of the hazard, exposure and vulnerability characteristics of the study area, considerations are supplied on how the utilization of this approach can be maximized in the light of the next flood risk maps revision due by December 2019.     

Protecting people and property: the influence of land-use planners on flood hazard mitigation in New Urbanist developments

Research suggests that characteristics of local government land-use planners help determine the priority that local communities place on flood hazard mitigation. However, research has not examined the significance of land-use planners' values and role orientations for flood hazard mitigation. Multiple regression analysis is used to examine the influence that land-use planners' values and role orientations have on flood hazard mitigation in a national sample of New Urbanist development projects. Findings indicate that land-use planners' values and role orientations have significant implications for flood hazard mitigation in these projects. The paper recommends that local governments adopt a land-use planning approach to flood hazard mitigation that relies on land-use planners to help direct development away from hazardous portions of development sites.