中国人力资本积累的空间特征及其对经济增长的影响

教育是一个国家或地区积累人力资源的重要途径之一,也是经济可持续发展的重要基础.通过空间计量经济学方法和模型,以2000年中国县级数据为对象,进行实证研究分析,发现在中国经济可持续发展过程中,通过教育而积累的人力资本存量的作用不容忽视.教育发展对经济增长的影响会因性别不同而有所差异,男性平均接受教育的年限和女性接受教育的年限对经济增长的影响都是正向且显著,但前者贡献更大.此外,中国教育发展具有明显的空间聚集效应,在地区教育发展模式上,存在四种聚集模式,分别是H-H类型、L-L类型、H-L类型和L-H类型,这种教育发展的不均衡性,加剧了经济发展韵不平衡,对地区经济长期可持续均衡发展产生了重要影响.在方法上,当探讨具有空间聚集效应的经济可持续发展问题上,空间误差模型要优于最小二乘回归模型.     

社会和谐与可持续发展

本文运用系统科学原理阐释了社会和谐的内涵,指出社会和谐须以人与自然和谐为基础,以人与人之间的平等、友爱和同合作为表征,其构建与实现应遵从人类社会的演化规律,依赖予在把握人类社会需求演绎、协同人与自然关系的基础上推动生产力的高效有序发展和自然资源、生态环境的可持续支持.进而从可持续发展角度,提出了人与自然和谐的"双剩余理论",以揭示其间的供瓣枧理和协同准则;推导出了社会收益分配的相对公平系数,以衡量人与人公平要求下的社会和谐.针对国情和战略目标要求,提出了以加强小城镇建设为轴心的城市、小城镇与农村人流、物流、财流和信息流合理聚散的"三元结构"发展模式,以促进我国和谐社会的建设和可持续发展战略的有序实践.     

现行财税体制下我国耕地资源数量变化的实证研究

耕地资源数量变化受到人口、经济等诸多因素的影响，而财税体制是影响耕地资源数量变化的更深屡次原因。通过数量关系的初步观察和作用机理分析说明我国现行财税体制对耕地资源数量变化存在正反两方面作用，总体来看，对耕地资源保护不利。计量结果进一步证实了我国现行财税体制对耕地资源数量变化存在显著影响。揭示了其影响的方向和大小。根据研究结果，文章有针对性地提出了增加地方财政预算收入，合理分配土地出让金比例和科学使用土地出让金等相关政策建议。     

Fecal source tracking by antibiotic resistance analysis on a watershed exhibiting low resistance

The ongoing development of microbial source tracking has made it possible to identify contamination sources with varying accuracy, depending on the method used. The purpose of this study was to test the efficiency of the antibiotic resistance analysis (ARA) method under low resistance by tracking the fecal sources at Turkey Creek, Oklahoma exhibiting this condition. The resistance patterns of 772 water-isolates, tested with nine antibiotics, were analyzed by discriminant analysis (DA) utilizing a five-source library containing 2250 isolates. The library passed various representativeness tests; however, two of the pulled-sample tests suggested insufficient sampling. The resubstitution test of the library individual sources showed significant isolate misclassification with an average rate of correct classification (ARCC) of 58%. These misclassifications were explained by low antibiotic resistance (Wilcoxon test P < 0.0001). Seasonal DA of stream E. coli isolates for the pooled sources human/livestock/deer indicated that in fall, the human source dominated (P < 0.0001) at a rate of 56%, and that human and livestock respective contributions in winter (35 and 39%), spring (43 and 40%), and summer (37 and 35%) were similar. Deer scored lower (17–28%) than human and livestock at every season. The DA was revised using results from a misclassification analysis to provide a perspective of the effect caused by low antibiotic resistance and a more realistic determination of the fecal source rates at Turkey Creek. The revision increased livestock rates by 13–14% (0.04 ≤ P ≤ 0.06), and decreased human and deer by 6–7%. Negative misclassification into livestock was significant (0.04 ≤ P ≤ 0.06). Low antibiotic resistance showed the greatest effect in this category.     

浅论国家环境权

随着全球环境的日益恶化和公民环保意识的不断增强，环境权理论迅速发展。国家环境权作为一项重要的环境权。在环境法理论逐步变革和权利内涵不断演进的趋势下，已成为法学界研究探讨的重要课题。通过分析国家环境权的国内、国际法律基础。论证了国家环境权的确立。利用类比的方法。阐述了国家环境权与其他宪法权利的不同之处。从权利义务的对等统一和国内国际两个层面。重新归纳了国家环境权的内容。初步构建了国家环境权的基本理论框架。     

草原旅游发展中旅游管理部门环境意识的调查研究

根据环境意识结构．设计了旅游管理部门环境意识调查问卷。其主要的指标体系包括：旅游环境知识水平、旅游环境态度、旅游环境评价和旅游环境行为四个方面。对指标体系各部分之间以及每一指标部分的每一题目之间的相对重要性进行权重的确定．而且对各部分的每道题目的各个选项予以赋分。基于权重和赋分．结合调查问卷的实际情况，设计了指标体系各部分评价模型和环境意识总体评价模型。以此来计算草原旅游发展中旅游管理部门环境意识水平的综合得分。经过分析得知，旅游管理部门环境意识模式是“环境知识制约型”模式。     

Sustainable Development and Strategic Thinking

From an economic point of view, the industrial economy is efficient to overcome situations of a scarcity of goods. From a technological point of view, the resource efficiency of the manufacturing processes of the industrial economy has been permanently improved during the last 200 years. In addition, cleaner processes have been developed. However, from an ecologic point of view, an increasing world population with increasing consumption has produced a ＂global footprint＂ which approaches the carrying capacity of the planet. A circular economy and its high-value spin-offs-a lake economy and a performance or functional service economy-can fulfil customers＇ needs with considerably less resource consumption, less environmental impairment in production and considerably less end-of-life product waste, especially in situations of affluence, when a considerable stock of physical goods and infrastructures exists. Also, in situations of a scarcity of natural resources, both energy and materials, often characterised by rapidly rising resource prices, the economic actors of a circular economy have a high competitive advantage over the actors of the industrial economy, due to much lower procurement costs for materials and energy. From a social point of view, a circular economy increases the number of skilled jobs in regional enterprises. However, the shift from a linear manufacturing economy to a circular or service economy means a change in economic thinking from flow （throughput） management to stock （asset） management： in a manufacturing economy with largely unsaturated markets, total wealth increases through accumulation as resource throughput （flow） is transformed into a higher stock of goods of better quality （but in a manufacturing economy with largely saturated markets, wealth represented by the stock of goods will no longer increase）; in a circular or service economy, total wealth increases through a smart management of existing physical assets （stock） that are adapted to changes in both technology and customer demand. This second approach not only applies to physical capital but equally to social capital, such as health and education and green GDP. To measure the social wealth of a population, it is not the amount of money spent on schools and hospitals that matters, butif this expenditure has led to a better education of the students, and a better health of the people.     

最优环境税:庇古法则与税制协调

从经济学的角度对国外关于最优环境税的经典理论——庇古法则及近十年来研究的前沿内容——一般均衡模型等作出阐释，并在外部性理论的基础上通过一个一般均衡模型考察环境税的效率特性和在次优情形下最优环境税的决定因素。随后是对我国开征环境税的几点思考：环境税的课征范围应暂定为排放各种废水、废气（烟尘）和固体废弃物的行为。环境税税率的确定可以采用“反复迭代”的方法，即“环境效益优先，兼顾税收协调和收入分配等效应。”其他相关问题的处理，如环境税和其它政策手段的配合使用，环境税税收的使用等。     

典型污染源中多环麝香的污染特征

合成麝香是一类近十多年才引起人们关注的有机污染物.合成麝香广泛分布于环境中.难降解,易生物富集,对水生生物和人体均呈现一定的生物毒性.文章对某一化妆品厂生产车闯内、外及工厂外的上、下风向大气中多环麝香进行了定性定量分析,结果表明,除ATⅡ之外,大气中检测出了五种多环麝香,其中作为对照点的上风向多环麝香总浓度为5.43ng/m3,而工厂室内、外及下风向的多环麝香浓度范围为17.25～5543.4ng/m3;气固分配实验研究发现,超过68.43%的多环麝香分布于气相中.