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61.
本文分析了江苏省近几十年来、特别是80年代以来冬季气温的变化特征,根据农业灾害发生的条件,讨论了“暖冬”对农业生产及农业灾害的影响,为农业生产部门和防灾抗灾部门决策提供科学依据. 相似文献
62.
Kennett SA 《Environmental management》2002,30(5):0595-0608
Biosphere greenhouse gas (GHG) management consists of preserving and enhancing terrestrial carbon pools and producing biomass
as a fossil fuel substitute. The discussion of this topic has focused primarily on carbon-accounting and project-level issues,
particularly relating to carbon sequestration as a source of emissions credits under the Kyoto Protocol. While international
consensus on these matters is needed, this paper argues that an important domestic policy agenda also deserves attention.
National policies for biosphere GHG management are necessary to bring about large-scale changes in land-use, forestry, and
agricultural practices and can address some of the technical and policy issues that have proven to be particularly problematic
from carbon-accounting and project-level perspectives. These policies should minimize land-use and resource-management conflicts,
account for collateral benefits, and ensure institutional compatibility with existing resource-management regimes. Issues
relating to project permanence, leakage, and transaction costs should also be addressed. A range of policy instruments should
be used and biosphere GHG management should be one component of an integrated approach to environmental and resource management.
Countries promoting biosphere GHG management as an important element of their climate change strategies should be developing
these domestic policies to complement international negotiations and to demonstrate that carbon sequestration and biomass
production can make an effective contribution to the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations. 相似文献
63.
Advancement of renewables in Bangladesh and Thailand: Policy intervention and institutional settings
This article reviews and analyses the advancement of renewable sources of energy in Bangladesh and Thailand in terms of policy intervention and institutional settings. Since renewable forms of energy emit far smaller amounts of greenhouse gas compared with fossil fuels, their use should mitigate climate change impacts while contributing to the provision of energy services. The article turns first to a review of energy–environment trends and the potential for renewables in these two nations. It then discusses strategies for the advancement of renewables. It is argued that further significant efforts can be made towards the advancement of renewables in Bangladesh and Thailand. These two nations could also learn from the experience in industrialized nations and other developing nations with regard to requisite policy instruments and processes. A number of barriers remain to the advancement of renewables, especially in terms of policy arrangements, institutional settings, financing mechanisms and technologies. Resources, cooperation and learning are required in order to overcome such barriers and to foster the development of necessary policy measures. Implementation of the clean development mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol, and replication and adaptation of effective strategies from other settings are possible avenues for this. 相似文献
64.
水稻生产气象灾害危险性分析:—以湖南省常德市水稻生产为例 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
本文通过对研究区水稻气象灾害规律的研究和危险性评价,计算了不同等级的水稻综合风险率,为保险部门制定水稻保险费率提供了科学依据. 相似文献
65.
The impact of global warming on winter tourism and skiing: a regionalised model for Austrian snow conditions 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Possible climate change will modify snow-cover depth and change the characteristics of winter tourism and skiing districts.
Our model describes seasonal snow-cover depth related to altitude in six Alpine climate regions as the best fit of all snow
stations. Data cover 30 winter seasons (November to April values) from 1965 to 1995. We modified the data according to a scenario
of temperature and precipitation change (2 °C warming, no precipitation change) and achieve a new simulated snow-cover depth.
The indicators MARP (mean altitude of resident population) and MASPSL (mean altitude of starting point of ski lifts) serve
as references for “critical altitudes” of Austrian districts. A warming implies a reduction of snow in all districts, but
the loss is overproportional in lower altitudes. The direction of economic impacts is clear – income losses and adaptation
costs – but magnitude and time frames remain uncertain.
Received: 24 February 1999 · Accepted: 15 May 1999 相似文献
66.
Mareike Blum 《Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning》2020,22(2):226-238
ABSTRACTAfter the Paris Agreement the global carbon offset markets face regulatory uncertainty and new legitimation challenges. This paper examines the discursive legitimation of the carbon markets between 2015 and 2018 and is based on 37 qualitative interviews with market stakeholders. The results show that the carbon markets remain contested and require new ideas and concepts to construct legitimacy. Some stakeholders consider moving beyond carbon offsetting, mainly due to new risks of double counting. Others continue to portray carbon offsetting as a ‘false solution’. Nevertheless, the trust in carbon markets as an appropriate way to address climate change remains high. Therefore, new forms of international emission trading are likely to evolve under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. 相似文献
67.
Chen-Tung?Arthur?ChenEmail author James?T.?Liu Ben-Jei?Tsuang 《Regional Environmental Change》2004,4(1):39-48
Rapid economic and industrial development in Taiwan over the past five decades has elevated the islands standing and earned it a place in the group known as the Four Small Dragons of Asia. Such growth, however, has been at the expense of the environment. There are currently nearly 23 million people juggling for space on the small island of 35,873 km2. Aggravating the matter further, the central mountain ranges and hills take up 73.6% of the land area with some 156 peaks surpassing 3,000 m. As a result, most people live in coastal plains which amount to only 9,490 km2. Pressure to move people inland has led to road construction and deforestation, both of which have contributed to an already high denudation rate of topsoil. As a consequence of this, thirteen rivers in Taiwan are now ranked among the top 20 worldwide in terms of sediment yield. Aside from this, the frequency of both floods and droughts increased prior to 1990, perhaps because of deforestation and global warming. Fortunately, the new conservation-orientated forest management policy of 1991 has alleviated the problem, somewhat, and the occurrence of floods and droughts has since decreased. The problem of water shortage, however, has worsened because of the warming trend in atmospheric temperature. Damming may ameliorate the water shortage problem but may affect the shoreline stability, as well as the ecology and water quality in the estuaries. Furthermore, these detrimental effects may go far beyond the estuaries, and even fisheries on the continental shelves may be affected. 相似文献
68.
Numerous analyses of the possible impacts of future climatic changes on tree species composition have been published for
both lowland and high-elevation forests. Most of these studies were based on the application of forest "gap" models, and the
vast majority of them considered only changes in the average of climatic parameters over time. In this study, we use a unique
data set on reconstructed past climatic variations to analyse forest dynamics simulated by the forest gap model ForClim. This
analysis forms the basis for a systematic exploration of the ecological effects of changing means vs. changing variability
of climate on central European forests. A reconstruction of historical climate covering the last 470 years in the Swiss lowlands
(ClimIndex) is extrapolated to a transect across the alpine (cold) treeline and used to simulate the influence of climate
variations on the time scale of decades on forest biomass and tree species composition at both sites. While the simulation
at the low-elevation site shows little sensitivity to climate variations, the results from upper subalpine forests suggest
that two major dieback events would have occurred at elevations above the current but below the climatic tree line, induced
by clusters of exceptionally cold summers. The results are in agreement with available dendrochronological data and with documentary
evidence on massive negative impacts on flora and fauna at high elevations during these periods. We conclude that ForClim
is capable of capturing the effects on tree population dynamics of climate variability at these sites as reconstructed from
the ClimIndex record. A factorial design is used to address the sensitivity of ForClim to changes of the long-term averages
vs. changes of the variability of monthly temperature and precipitation data. To this end, the simulated tree species composition
of near-natural forests is examined along a climate gradient in Europe. The results indicate that there are three types of
forest response: (1) little sensitivity to both kinds of change, (2) strong sensitivity to changes in the means, but little
sensitivity to changing variability, and (3) strong sensitivity to changing variability at least in parts of the examined
climate space. Half of the cases investigated fall under the third category, suggesting that emphasis should be placed on
also assessing the sensitivity of ecosystems to future changes in climate variability rather than on changes of average values
alone.
Electronic Publication 相似文献
69.
Harald Sverdrup Salim Belyazid Bengt Nihlgård Lars Ericson 《Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus》2007,7(1-3):163-179
The ForSAFE model, designed for modelling biogeochemical cycles (water, acidity, base cation, nitrogen and carbon) in terrestrial
ecosystems, was modified with a vegetation response module (VEG), incorporating the effects of: nitrogen pollution, acidification,
soil moisture, temperature, wind chill exposure, light and shading by trees, grazing by animals, competition between plants,
above ground for light and below ground for water and nutrients. The model calculates the response of number ground vegetation
plant groups. The integrated model was tested and validated at integrated level II forest monitoring sites across Sweden,
four have been shown here, and used to assess the effect of acidification and nitrogen pollution in relation to factors such
as climate change, forest management and changing grazing pressure. The response functions have been derived from single-factor
experiments and integrated through the model structure for use on whole systems. The tests with the model suggest that the
ground vegetation composition is reasonably well predicted, that much research remains before the model is fully tested and
operational, and that the model may serve as a tool for assessing impacts of climate change, acid rain and forest management
on plant biodiversity in forested areas. 相似文献
70.
If the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to be achieved, Parties must commit themselves to meeting meaningful long‐term targets that, based on current knowledge, would minimize the possibility of irreversible climate change. Current indications are that a global mean temperature rise in excess of 2–3 °C would enhance the risk of destabilizing the climate system as we know it, and possibly lead to catastrophic change such as a shutdown of the deep ocean circulation, and the disintegration of the West Arctic Ice Sheet. Observations have shown that for many small island developing States (SIDS), life‐sustaining ecosystems such as coral reefs, already living near the limit of thermal tolerance, are highly climate‐sensitive, and can suffer severe damage from exposure to sea temperatures as low as 1 °C above the seasonal maximum. Other natural systems (e.g., mangroves) are similarly susceptible to relatively low temperature increases, coupled with small increments of sea level rise. Economic and social sectors, including agriculture and human health, face similar challenges from the likely impacts of projected climate change. In light of known thresholds, this paper presents the view that SIDS should seek support for a temperature cap not exceeding 1.5–2.0 °C above the pre‐industrial mean. It is argued that a less stringent post‐Kyoto target would frustrate achievement of the UNFCCC objective. The view is expressed that all countries which emit significant amounts of greenhouse gases should commit to binding reduction targets in the second commitment period, but that targets for developing countries should be less stringent than those agreed for developed countries. Such an arrangement would be faithful to the principles of equity and would ensure that the right of Parties to attain developed country status would not be abrogated. 相似文献