煤矿顶板冒落预报的分形研究

应用分形理论，研究了煤矿顶板运动过程中所表现的分形特征，提出了用顶板下沉速度的分数维值的变化预报顶板来压、冒落的方法，使得预报顶板来压、冒落的指标定量化成为可能，预报更加科学，把预报的理论与方法推进到新阶段。这对保障煤矿生产安全具有重要的应用价值。     

A hierarchical approach to fisheries planning and modeling in the Columbia River Basin

The Columbia River Basin is the scene of a massive effort to restore populations of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and steelhead (O. mykiss). Efficient restoration is confounded by a high level of complexity, competing sociopolitical goals and values, and uncertainty about key system properties. Simulation models and other tools of systems analysis are important to development of a comprehensive, regionally acceptable strategy. Hierarchy theory provides a useful paradigm for organized complexity within the Columbia Basin and the basis for a trilevel hierarchical structure for organizing and integrating models. Life-stage models compose the most basic simulation units at the lowest level in the proposed hierarchical modeling structure. Each life-stage model simulates a distinct period in the life cycle of anadromous salmonids. Population models at the intermediate level simulate the complete life cycles of salmon and steelhead populations. At the highest level in the hierarchy, interpopulation models simulate extensive, long-term processes that affect multiple species and stocks. A hierarchical system of models is preferable to a single model or to a group of models lacking formal structure. A principal advantage is that models have the correct spatial and temporal resolution for analyzing questions at different scales. A hierarchical structure also facilitates the flow of information among models, and aids in understanding the impacts of uncertainty. Constructing a hierarchy of models should involve both bottom-up and top-down perspectives that maintain logical consistency among models, while allowing unique model structures appropriate for each level in the hierarchy.     

全息理论与灾害周期性

地球系统是宇宙系统的全息缩影，地球上的灾害和天体之间具有全息关系，同样有恒定的周期性。本文根据全息理论对灾害进行分析预测，并建议在灾害研究中应用全息理论．     

分形块体理论及其在三峡高边坡稳定分析中的应用

把分形几何与块体理论相结合，提出了分形块体理论，建立了分形块体理论赤平解析法，并将其应用于三峡永久船闸高边坡稳定性分析中。结果表明：分形块体理论符合工程实际，是分析裂隙岩体工程稳定性行之有效的可靠方法。     

Theory in practice: the anatomy of a borough plan

This paper focuses on the development plan activities of the London Boroughs and simply seeks to explain the relatively limited progress that has been made in the preparation and adoption of statutory local plans, by showing how production was constrained as local planners were caught up in the shifting ground of contemporary planning theory. The author suggests that uncertainty about the acceptable scope and content of local plans, at a time when planners were being encouraged to extend the emphasis of their work beyond the purely physical, led to serious problems as planners began to experiment with new approaches to local planning but failed to appreciate the operational implications of each approach.     

Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution Abatement Strategies in Urban Areas: Application to the Greater Athens Area

This paper presents an integrated system for the assessmentof technical and non-technical measures that are putforward in order to reduce air pollution levels in urbanareas. In contrast to the majority of the currentlyemployed assessment tools, this system allows for theevaluation of any proposed air pollution control measure interms of its combined impact on air quality and socialwelfare, by correlating the environmental and economicaspects of alternative air pollution abatement solutions.Based on the multi-pollutant, multi-effect concept, thesystem presented aims in providing policy-makers with areliable tool for the objective assessment of the mostcost-effective packages of measures, the latter beingallocated according to the particular features and needs ofthe areas examined.     

矿产资源经济区划的理论与方法

矿产资源经济区划是保护与合理开发利用矿产资源、实现资源优化配置和区域经济可持续发展的基础。本文依据经典的区位理论和地域分工理论,应用系统分析的方法,建立了矿产资源经济区划的一般程序,并归纳了定量分析中必要的技术手段和方法路线。     

A GAME-THEORETIC APPROACH TO ACID RAIN ABATEMENT: CONFLICT ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL LOAD ALLOCATION1

ABSTRACT: The detrimental impacts of acid rain have become widely publicized, but effective and equitable methods to mitigate the acid rain problem remain to be found. This paper focuses on conflicts involved in allocation of the total emission loads to be reduced to respective pollution sources of acid rain, and proposes a game-theory approach to the resolution of the conflict. With an example abstracted from a hypothetical case study in the United States of America and Canada, a systematic analysis is performed and policy implications of the results examined to assess the applicability of the proposed model.     

灰关联分析在故障树诊断中的应用

介绍一种灰色诊断法。在故障诊断模式识别中,运用灰关联分析,依据故障树的底事件重要度,通过关联度计算及排序,对故障树分析中,各种故障模式发生的可能性大小作出了准确的判断,从而为处理事故的先后、缓急提供了依据。     

US Government Natural Disaster Assistance: Historical Analysis and a Proposal for the Future

Governments often provide grants or low-interest loans to disaster victims. Yet these programmes have proven to be quite costly. In addition, questions have been raised about associated behavioural incentives. Conceptually, government disaster insurance programmes should be more efficient, consistent and equitable than ex post facto disaster relief in the form of grants and loans. Yet the performance of government disaster insurance programmes has been mixed, at best. This article reviews the history of US federal natural disaster assistance to individuals and concludes with a recommendation for a new government role in the provision of disaster insurance.