混沌理论：人类认识自然灾害的工具之一

自然灾害实际上是“人-自然系统”呈现为一种无序的状态.在人类面临的众多的自然灾害中,有一些特殊类型的自然灾害具有“混沌性态”的无序性.当(1)人-自然系统内出现混沌无序并超过某一临界值时,或(2)人-自然系统的某一纯粹的自然子系统出现混沌无序性且继而引发了整个人-自然系统的无序性时,危及人类生存,便产生了自然灾害。在人-自然系统中,导致混沌性自然灾害的条件至少有四种:(1)三个或三个以上作用源加上非线性关系;(2)某些变量的周期性解变得不稳定;(3)控制参量超过临界值导致周期倍增;(4)周期性扰动作用于非线性项.在此基础上,本文进一步提出了防灾或减灾的如下四条原则措施:在人—自然系统中,(1)减弱某些非线性机制;(2)隔离某些相互作用的要素及其子环路;(3)控制某些关键性参量的变化,(4)提高(或降低)某些重要变量的临界值.     

1991年世界地震灾情及地震活动特征

为适应“国际减灾十年活动”的需要,系统整理了1991年世界地震灾情及重要地震。统计结果表明:全世界1991年全年因地震死亡人数为2084人,中国只有一人;受伤人数约6500人,中国将近700人;倒塌房屋约62万间。全年直接经济损失粗略估算,国外2.7～3.2亿美元,国内约3.3亿人民币。对1991年度地震活动特点进行了简要分析。     

灾难危急时刻的管理

灾难危急时刻的管理往往是出乎于原有的抗灾计划的。研究发现,成功的灾害管理主要来源于应急组织的作用,特别是当管理中存在着信息交流、职权行使和协调发展等方面的问题时更是如此。事先的救灾计划可以减少但却不能完全消除这些管理上的问题。     

论人口-资源-环境-灾害恶性循环的严重性与减灾工作的新阶段

人口、资源、环境、灾害.这是当今世界考虑人类的生存与发展的四大基本问题,目前均已发出“黄牌警告”.抑制社会与自然向恶性循环方向发展,需唤起全人类的觉醒和国家领导更高的责任感:保护环境和防御大灾.需组织国际交流与协作:协词社会的发展与生存.需促使环保减灾工作纳入发展规划;提高环保减灾的效能.需推动其内部机制走向综合化和社会化,这是90年代国际和国内共同奋斗的目标. 我国是四大基本问题最为严重的少数国家之一,本文列述了有关的一些重要资料,以求在严酷的四大“黄牌”的总况面前.激起社会更广泛的觉醒和行动.最后,简述了对减灾工作的一些设想.     

Landfill gas - a potential environmental hazard

Methane derived from the decomposition of organic material contained within a landfill may escape beyond the site boundary where it can pose an explosion or fire hazard. Methods are described to prevent die occurrence of such lateral gas migration. Problems due to the accumulation of gas in buildings, erected on landfill sites, have occurred and techniques are now available to overcome these at some sites. However, it is recognized that at other sites, redevelopment should not be allowed to take place on die grounds of safety.     

Food aid and relief-development strategies*

This paper begins by setting out the main arguments on which a proposal for "relief-development strategies" rest. The second part of the paper is concerned with a discussion of the way the objectives of a "relief-development strategy" might be achieved and the roles emergency food aid might have. In the third part of the paper, a number of strategic issues are discussed. A stylized account is presented of how a broad "relief development strategy" might be mounted. The last part of the paper draws together the discussion by considering how emergency projects should be assessed. If the principles on which this paper are based are accepted, then the evaluation of emergency projects should extend well beyond convention.     

Evolution of disaster relief law under multiple transformations: Progressive learning or walking in a circle?

The aim of this paper is to examine the association between double-loop disaster learning and transformations of political systems. The particular question is how disasters increase the rapidity and complexity, with which the transforming regimes face the unsuitability and inadequacy of the past forms and processes of disaster governance. The centennial evolution of the disaster relief law at a country scale (Czech Republic, resp. Czechoslovakia, 1918-present) is used as an example. The thorough search in digital repository of Czech and Slovak Parliamentary Library was performed to obtain legislative norms and protocols from parliamentary debates, whereas major disasters that induced new laws (1927 flash flood, 1947 drought, 1997 and 2002 floods) were identified from existing databases and from detailed reconstructions of historical disastrous events. The described cases enabled to add new empirical evidence contesting (i) the process scheme of disaster politics during critical junctures and institutional transformations, and (ii) the progressive nature of the double-loop learning approach related to disasters. It is shown that the double-loop learning from disasters and its benefits should be considered as time-dependent and related to permissive and productive conditions that facilitated the adoption of the new disaster relief law (i.e. the learning process). Finally, the implications for the research agenda (historical disaster research) and for disaster policy (evaluation of disaster relief effectiveness) are summarized.     

乌海吴源煤矿地下水勘探及防治

通过对昊源煤矿地下水开展水文勘查工作,摸清了矿区的水文地质条件,为地下水防治和应急处理提供了措施和方法。     

Participatory modelling for sustainable development: Key issues derived from five cases of natural resource and disaster risk management

Stakeholder participation is considered a key principle for sustainable development in the context of natural resource and disaster risk management. Participatory modelling (PM) is an interactive and iterative process in which stakeholder involvement is supported by modelling and communication tools. Planning and decision-making for sustainable development (SD)integrate three substantive dimensions − social, ecological and economic. The procedural dimension of SD, however, is equally important, and here we see great potential for PM. In this study, we evaluate five PM research projects against criteria for the procedural dimension of SD. This provides a basis for identifying key issues and needs for further research into PM for SD. While the cases show great potential, especially for supporting knowledge integration, learning and transparent handling of values and perspectives, they indicate a particular need to develop PM in respect of organizational integration. This issue is closely connected to the possibility of effectively implementing PM in practice.     

Disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk: A study in an alpine valley in Italy

Italy is a country highly vulnerable to floods and landslides. The present study aims to investigate disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk in a group of people living in an alpine valley in the north of Italy. Four hundred seven adult residents in nine communities exposed to hydrogeological risk were interviewed by using a structured questionnaire. Participants were asked about the adoption of a set of protective behaviors that can prevent negative consequences of floods. Perception of flood risk was assessed by means of a one-dimensional scale that was developed and validated by the authors. Items included in this scale asked participants to estimate likelihood of occurrence of different flood consequences and to express feelings of worry associated to them. Socio-demographic and experiential information on respondents were also collected. Overall, results showed that most of respondents were fairly well prepared to deal with a future flood disaster. Correlational and regression analyses indicated that disaster preparedness was positively associated with risk perception. In accordance with literature, there was not a significant relation between likelihood judgments and adoption of protective behaviors, while feelings of worry were associated with disaster preparedness. Authors interpret their results in relation to the socio-environmental characteristics of the studied communities. Theoretical, empirical and practical implications of the findings are also discussed.