广西春旱的时空分布特征及成因分析

利用广西具有气候代表性的32个站点1961-2007年逐日降水量资料,引入季节无雨日作为划分干旱的标准,采用EOF分析等方法,分析了广西春旱的时空分布特征;并用NCEP再分析资料、NOAA海温资料、国家气候中心的74项环流特征量资料等,对广西春旱的成因进行了分析。结果表明:从时间变化看,广西春旱的趋势变化不明显,主要以年际、年代际变化为主,从空间分布看,广西春旱以全区一致性型为主要空间分布型;在春旱年,广西上空对流层低层出现偏南-西南气流距平强辐散异常,伴随有明显的水汽通量辐散异常,同时东亚大槽偏弱,阿留申低压明显减弱,中纬度大陆高压减弱,中高纬环流平直,不利于冷空气南下华南;广西春旱年前冬阿留申低压明显增强,大陆高压也增强,冷空气活动频繁,当前冬印缅槽偏弱时,广西春季发生干旱的可能性较大。     

台风灾害债券设计——基于广东省数据的实证研究

台风作为全球发生频率最高,影响最严重的一种自然灾害,对我国的影响也非常严重。在巨灾风险证券化、巨灾债券已成为巨灾保险业大趋势的背景下,发展我国台风灾害债券具有重要的现实意义。以我国受台风灾害影响最严重的省份——广东省为研究对象,收集了其近30年相关台风损失数据,利用非寿险精算技术分析其台风的损失分布和次数分布,在此基础上利用CAMP模型和现金流分析对广东省的台风灾害债券做了初步设计。     

Impact of continental margins in the Mediterranean Sea: Hints from the surface colour and temperature historical record

The surface colour and temperature fields of the Mediterranean Sea, as appearing in time series, of basin-wide images available in the CZCS (1979–1985) and AVHRR (1982–1991) historical archives, differentiate between basin interior and continental margins affected by coastal patterns, river plumes, and mesoscale features. The original data were processed to apply calibration factors, to correct for atmospheric contamination, and to estimate chlorophyll-like pigment concentration and surface temperature. Composites were derived, as monthly and annual means, using a fixed equal-area projection with a 1-km² pixel grid. Enhanced pigment values and lower temperatures along the northern coastal areas (i.e. the Ligurian, Provençal and Balearic basins, as well as the Adriatic, and Aegean Seas) have been associated with the impact of runoff from continental margins (i.e. both a direct impact due to the sediment load and one induced on the planktonic flora by the associated nutrient load) and with vertical mixing due to the prevailing winds (i.e. the Mistral in the northwest, the Bora in the Adriatic, the Etesians in the Aegean). The pattern of increasing pigments and decreasing temperatures in seen to develop in the monthly images from the coastal zone towards the open sea from summer to winter, and then back from winter to summer. The southern coastal areas show different values, namely lower pigments and higher temperatures (except in areas where the data are altered by signal contamination). It is suggested that differences in geomorphology and meteorology of the basin margins have an impact on both water biogeochemistry and dynamics, influencing the biooptical and thermal properties of the various sub-basins, and of the entire Mediterranean region.     

贵州省煤中挥发性和半挥发性微量元素分布规律的初步研究

研究了贵州省四大煤田不同层位、不同煤种中Hg,As,Se,Pb,Cd,Tl,Zn,Sb等挥发性和半挥发性微量元素的分布规律。贵州省原煤中Hg,As,Se,Pb,Cd,Sb等元素的含量高于地壳克拉克值;Tl,Zn等的含量低于地壳克拉克值;另外,除了Pb,Zn外,贵州省原煤中Hg,As,Se,Cd的含量远远高于东北和内蒙古东部地区。微量元素聚类分析结果表明,Hg,As,Sb可能主要分布于煤的黄铁矿中;Zn和Se可能主要赋存于闪锌矿中;Cd可能部分存在于硫化物中,部分存在于硅酸盐矿物相中;Pb可能主要存在于硅酸盐矿物相中;而Tl在煤中的赋存形式较复杂。     

浙江省酸雨的空间分布格局及其未来变化趋势预测

利用浙江省1992、2002年的酸雨监测数据,并利用RAINS-ASIA模型模拟了1990-2030年浙江省酸雨前体物(SO2)的排放量,以及酸沉降超临界负荷面积占研究区域面积比例的变化情况.结果表明,浙江省的酸雨分布范围不断扩大、危害程度不断加重;未来一个时期内,SO2排放量都会维持在较高的水平;酸沉降超临界负荷面积所占比例在经历较快的增长阶段之后,会维持在较为恒定的水平,并呈现出明显的时滞性.     

湖北省近40年旱涝轻重程度的次序确定

本文用旱涝指标(即H=P/E)式计算了湖北省解放以来各年月的旱涝指数,它对给定的时间和空间上的旱涝轻重程度具有明显的分辨能力,由此确定了历年各自然季节的旱涝轻重年份的次序。     

陕西省1990年自然灾害和救灾工作回顾：兼谈1991年减灾对策

本文在回顾1990年陕西省灾情及救灾工作基础上,提出了强化政府在减灾中的职能,搞好灾情预测预报、及早制定防灾预案及灾前准备工作的减灾对策。     

Socioeconomic Impact of Forest Eco-compensation Mechanism in Hainan Province of China

The establishment of the forest eco-compensation mechanism could realize the value of the forest ecosystem services partly or thoroughly, stress the equality of the stakeholders, encourage public participation in forest ecosystem tendering, and strengthen the capacity of sustainable management. Taking the Hainan province as an example, this study focuses on the analysis of major socioeconomic and ecological impacts of forest eco-compensation in the Qiongzhong County and Lingshui County, and recommends approaches and practices for the establishment of the eco-compensation mechanism in the Hainan Province. Data were collected from a household questionnaire survey. Altogether 120 households have been interviewed, and Statistical Product and Service Solutions (SPSS) was applied for data analysis. Most of the respondents held a positive attitude toward the forest eco-compensation policy which has contributed to the improvement of environmental quality. However, forest protection has limited the opportunities for the income growth of local communities, who have never got sufficient compensation from either the central or local governments. Insufficient financial support to forest institutions and local communities involved in forest management has led to major conflicts in forest management, such as, the conflict between forest protection and local economic development, and decrease in arable land area and increase in surplus labor force. On the basis of case study results, the core issues of forest eco-compensation mechanism in Hainan province are discussed. Finally, suggestions and recommendations that cover forest eco-compensation standards, management institutions, and community capacity building and diversification of financing channels, have been made for the establishment of forest eco-compensation mechanism in Hainan.