Estimating contribution of wildland fires to ambient ozone levels in National Parks in the Sierra Nevada, California

Data from four continuous ozone and weather monitoring sites operated by the National Park Service in Sierra Nevada, California, are used to develop an ozone forecasting model and to estimate the contribution of wildland fires on ambient ozone levels. The analyses of weather and ozone data pointed to the transport of ozone precursors from the Central Valley as an important source of pollution in these National Parks. Comparisons of forecasted and observed values demonstrated that accurate forecasts of next-day hourly ozone levels may be achieved by using a time series model with historic averages, expected local weather and modeled PM values as explanatory variables. Results on fire smoke influence indicated occurrence of significant increases in average ozone levels with increasing fire activity. The overall effect on diurnal ozone values, however, was small when compared with the amount of variability attributed to sources other than fire.     

Prediction of the PCDD/F and dl-PCB 2005-WHO-TEQ content based on the contribution of six congeners: Toward a new screening approach for fish samples?

Current European Union regulation regarding polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCBs) in food and feed is based on Toxic Equivalent Quotient (TEQ) concept. For confirmatory purpose, the isotope-dilution method associated to a measurement by gas chromatography coupled with high resolution mass spectrometry is usually the method of choice for precisely measuring the 29 target congeners in three separated fractions. Time and cost related to these analyses are very significant. Various kinds of screening concepts can be considered. In the present study, we elaborated and validated a prediction model for the 2005 World Health Organization TEQ in fish, based on the measurement of 4 PCDD/F and 2 non-ortho dl-PCB congeners, potentially analyzable in a single extracted fraction by gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry. Large independent datasets have been used for model elaboration (n = 108) and validation (n = 363, n = 357 and n = 6).     

基于气象因子的PM_(2.5)回归预测模型研究

采用Pearson相关系数分析了2013—2016年3大典型城市北京、南京和广州的ρ(PM_(2.5))与各气象因子的关系。结果表明,3个城市ρ(PM_(2.5))与各风速因子最大的相关系数依次为-0.44,-0.29和-0.37,与各气温因子最大的相关系数依次为-0.44,-0.33和-0.37,气压与南京和广州的ρ(PM_(2.5))正相关,气压因子最大的相关系数分别为0.25和0.34,湿度与北京ρ(PM_(2.5))正相关,与广州ρ(PM_(2.5))负相关,湿度因子最大的相关系数分别为0.49和-0.36,日照时数与北京ρ(PM_(2.5))相关系数为-0.46,降水量与南京和广州ρ(PM_(2.5))相关系数分别为-0.20和-0.24;采用逐步线性回归方法建立城市次日ρ(PM_(2.5))与气象因子的预测模型,复合相关系数分别为0.722 8,0.770 6和0.809 9。模型预测3个城市2016年PM_(2.5)年均值分别偏高4,5和3μg/m3,日均值平均相对误差为±45.6%,±32.9%和±26.0%,模型对高ρ(PM_(2.5))普遍低估。     

SLFP: a stochastic linear fractional programming approach for sustainable waste management

A stochastic linear fractional programming (SLFP) approach is developed for supporting sustainable municipal solid waste management under uncertainty. The SLFP method can solve ratio optimization problems associated with random information, where chance-constrained programming is integrated into a linear fractional programming framework. It has advantages in: (1) comparing objectives of two aspects, (2) reflecting system efficiency, (3) dealing with uncertainty expressed as probability distributions, and (4) providing optimal-ratio solutions under different system-reliability conditions. The method is applied to a case study of waste flow allocation within a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. The obtained solutions are useful for identifying sustainable MSW management schemes with maximized system efficiency under various constraint-violation risks. The results indicate that SLFP can support in-depth analysis of the interrelationships among system efficiency, system cost and system-failure risk.     

Factor analysis and linear regression model (LRM) of metal speciation and physico-chemical characters of groundwater samples

An approach is described for viewing the interrelationship between different variables and also tracing the sources of pollution of groundwater of north Chennai (India). The data set of 43 variables which include major ions, minor ions and trace metal speciation (Cu, Pb, Cd and Zn) collected during the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons of the year 2000–2001, was subjected to R-mode factor analysis to comprehend the distribution pattern of the said variables. It was found that first factor measures salinity and hardness which explained 19.12% of the total variance (comprised of variables EC, TDS, Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, total hardness, Cl⁻ and SO₄ ²⁻) during pre-monsoon, while it was 25.08% during post-monsoon. The second and third factors were attributed to speciation of zinc and copper ions during both pre-monsoon and post-monsoon. Although there were two more factors, loaded with speciation parameters of lead and cadmium, the variance of them were less than 10%. From this study it is seen that sea water intrusion, municipal solid waste disposal are the identified sources of component of pollution. The importance of metal ions is taking a secondary role and the anthropogenic origin-industrial activity, is the reason in the evaluation of pollution status as they come in the second, third, fourth and fifth factors. As the trace metal speciation was grouped in separate factors, linear regression model (LRM) with correlation analysis was applied to check its validity for prediction of speciation and to apply LRM for rapid monitoring of water pollution.     

Alternative soil quality indices for evaluating the effect of intensive cropping, fertilisation and manuring for 31 years in the semi-arid soils of India

Soil quality assessment provides a tool for evaluating the sustainability of alternative soil management practices. Our objective was to develop the most sensitive soil quality index for evaluating fertilizer, farm yard manure (FYM), and crop management practices on a semiarid Inceptisol in India. Soil indicators and crop yield data from a long-term (31 years) fertilizer, manure, and crop rotation (maize, wheat, cowpea, pearl millet) study at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) near New Delhi were used. Plots receiving optimum NPK, super optimum NPK and optimum NPK + FYM had better values for all the parameters analyzed. Biological, chemical, and physical soil quality indicator data were transformed into scores (0 to 1) using both linear and non-linear scoring functions, and combined into soil quality indices using unscreened transformations, regression equation, or principal component analysis (PCA). Long-term application of optimum inorganic fertilizers (NPK) resulted in higher soil quality ratings for all methods, although the highest values were obtained for treatment, which included FYM. Correlations between wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield and the various soil quality indices showed the best relationship (highest r) between yield and a PCA-derived SQI. Differences in SQI values suggest that the control (no NPK, no manure) and N only treatments were degrading, while soils receiving animal manure (FYM) or super optimum NPK fertilizer had the best soil quality, respectively. Lower ratings associated with the N only and NP treatments suggest that one of the most common soil management practices in India may not be sustainable. A framework for soil quality assessment is proposed.     

Mapping nitrate leaching to upper groundwater in the sandy regions of The Netherlands, using conceptual knowledge

The European Community asks its Member States to provide a comprehensive and coherent overview of their groundwater chemical status. It is stated that simple conceptual models are necessary to allow assessments of the risks of failing to meet quality objectives. In The Netherlands two monitoring networks (one for agriculture and one for nature) are operational, providing results which can be used for an overview. Two regression models, based upon simple conceptual models, link measured nitrate concentrations to data from remote sensing images of land use, national forest inventory, national cattle inventory, fertiliser use statistics, atmospheric N deposition, soil maps and weather monitoring. The models are used to draw a nitrate leaching map and to estimate the size of the area exceeding the EU limit value in the early 1990s. The 95% confidence interval for the fraction nature and agricultural areas where the EU limit value for nitrate (50 mg/l) was exceeded amounted to 0.77–0.85 while the lower 97.5% confidence limit for the fraction agricultural area where the EU limit value was exceeded amounted to 0.94. Although the two conceptual models can be regarded as simple, the use of the models to give an overview was experienced as complex.     

A GIS-based Study for Optimizing the Total Emission Control Strategy in Lanzhou City

A geographic information system (GIS)-based approach with spatial analysis advantages was developed to optimize the total emission control scheme on air pollution in Lanzhou, combined with Models-3 modeling system and a linear programming model. GIS system is mainly used for establishing a multifactor assessment model to quantitatively divide environmental functional zone, and also used for selecting control sites in linear programming model. The results show that most of the urban area belongs to the second type of function, which is 122.8 km² occupying about 76.5% and the third type of about 32.9 km² occupying 20.5%. To reach the air quality up to the national standard in the entire control area, some large-emission factories need to cut emissions from 19% to 27%. For small but low-emission height sources, the cut may be as high 40%. The improvement of the ecological environment is urgently needed for controlling the background particle pollution in Lanzhou city.     

Are politicians office or policy motivated? The case of U.S. governors' environmental policies

Are elected politicians primarily motivated by holding office, thus choosing environmental policies accordingly? Or are they motivated by the chance to implement their preferred environmental policies? Do governors have character, in the sense that they promise and implement environmental policies consistent with their own preferences? To answer these questions, we study the differences in environmental spending across both re-electable and lame duck governors from the two main political parties. In our empirical analysis, we make use of parametric and non-parametric regression-discontinuity approaches. While re-electable governors do not set significantly different policies, lame duck governors do. We argue that in the area of environmental policy governors appear to be primarily office motivated and lack character.     

Trade-offs between time, predation risk and life history, and their implications for biogeography: A systems modelling approach with a primate case study

Group sizes are often considered to be the result of a trade-off between predation risk and the costs of feeding competition. We develop a model to explore the interaction between different ecological constraints on group sizes, using a primate (baboons) case study. The model uses climatic correlates of time budgets to predict maximum ecologically tolerable group size, and climatic predictors of predation risk (reflected mainly in predator density and female body mass) to predict minimum tolerable group size for any given habitat. As well as defining the range of sustainable group sizes for a given habitat, the model also allows us to reliably predict our exemplar taxon's biogeographical distribution across Africa. We also explore the life history implications of the model to ask whether baboons form group sizes which maximise survival or fecundity in the classic trade off between these two key life history variables. Our results indicate that, within the range of study sites in our sample, baboons prefer to maximise fecundity. However, the data indicate that in higher predation risk habitats they would switch to maximising survival at the expense of fecundity. We argue that this is due to the fact that interbirth interval and developmental rates have a ceiling that cannot be breached. Thus, while females can shorten interbirth intervals to compensate for increased predation risk, there is a limit to how much these life history variables can be altered, and when this is reached the best strategy is to maximise survivorship.