长江流域点源氮磷营养盐的排放、模型及预测

通过分析1985～2003年长江流域向河口/东海排放的点源营养盐的时空变化规律,建立长江点源营养盐排放模型,并预测2020年长江流域点源氮磷排放情况.模型基于人口密度、国内生产总值、人均氮磷排放量、以及污水处理率等因子,在99%的置信度上,氮磷模型的方差解释量分别达到92.3%及93.2%.基于此模型预测2020年长江流域点源氮排放量将达到(95 9±6 6)×104t,点源磷排放量达到(12.3±0.6)×104t.此外,研究结果进一步表明,点源营养盐通量仍然是长江输送营养盐总量的主要部分,是影响河口/近海水质的主要因素.     

Dams in the Amazon: Belo Monte and Brazil’s Hydroelectric Development of the Xingu River Basin

Hydroelectric dams represent major investments and major sources of environmental and social impacts. Powerful forces surround the decision-making process on public investments in the various options for the generation and conservation of electricity. Brazil’s proposed Belo Monte Dam (formerly Kararaô) and its upstream counterpart, the Altamira Dam (better known by its former name of Babaquara) are at the center of controversies on the decision-making process for major infrastructure projects in Amazonia. The Belo Monte Dam by itself would have a small reservoir area (440 km²) and large installed capacity (11, 181.3 MW), but the Altamira/Babaquara Dam that would regulate the flow of the Xingu River (thereby increasing power generation at Belo Monte) would flood a vast area (6140 km²). The great impact of dams provides a powerful reason for Brazil to reassess its current policies that allocate large amounts of energy in the country’s national grid to subsidized aluminum smelting for export. The case of Belo Monte and the five additional dams planned upstream (including the Altamira/Babaquara Dam) indicate the need for Brazil to reform its environmental assessment and licensing system to include the impacts of multiple interdependent projects.     

Catchment-Wide Wetland Assessment and Prioritization Using the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Method TOPSIS

It is widely accepted that wetland ecosystems are under threat worldwide. Many communities are now trying to establish wetland rehabilitation programs, but are confounded by a lack of objective information on wetland condition or significance. In this study, a multi-criteria decision-making method, TOPSIS (the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), was adapted to assist in the role of assessing wetland condition and rehabilitation priority in the Clarence River Catchment (New South Wales, Australia). Using 13 GIS data layers that described wetland character, wetland protection, and wetland threats, the wetlands were ranked in terms of condition. Through manipulation of the original model, the wetlands were prioritized for rehabilitation. The method offered a screening tool for the managers in choosing potential candidate wetlands for rehabilitation in a region.     

TUGAI: An Integrated Simulation Tool for Ecological Assessment of Alternative Water Management Strategies in a Degraded River Delta

The development of ecologically sound water allocation strategies that account for the needs of riverine ecosystems is a pressing issue, especially in semiarid river basins. In the Aral Sea Basin, a search for strategies to mitigate ecological and socioeconomic deterioration has been in process since the early 1990s. The Geographic Information System–based simulation tool TUGAI has been developed to support the policy determination process by providing a simple, problem-oriented method to assess ecological effects of alternative water management strategies for the Amudarya River. It combines a multiobjective water allocation model with simple, spatially explicit statistical and rule-based models of landscape dynamics. Changes in environmental conditions are evaluated by a fuzzy habitat suitability index for Populus euphratica, which is the dominant species of the characteristic riverine Tugai forests. Water management scenarios can be developed by altering spatiotemporal water distribution in the delta area or the amount of water inflow into the delta. Outcomes of scenario analysis are qualitative comparisons of the ecological effects of different options for a time period of up to 28 years. The given approach utilizes different types of knowledge, from quantitative hydrological data to qualitative local expert knowledge. The main purpose of the tool is to integrate the knowledge in a comprehensive way to make it available for discussions on alternative policies in moderated workshops with stakeholders. In this article, the modules of the tool, their integration, and three hypothetical scenarios are presented. Based on the experience gained when developing the TUGAI tool, we propose that the general framework can be transferred to other areas where tradeoffs in water allocation between the environment and other water users are of major concern. The potential for a simulation tool to structure and inform a complex resource management situation by involving local experts and stakeholders in the development of possible future scenarios will become increasingly valuable for transparent and participatory resource management.     

Assessing the Effects of Alternative Setback Channel Constraint Scenarios Employing a River Meander Migration Model

River channel migration and cutoff events within large river riparian corridors create heterogeneous and biologically diverse landscapes. However, channel stabilization (riprap and levees) impede the formation and maintenance of riparian areas. These impacts can be mitigated by setting channel constraints away from the channel. Using a meander migration model to measure land affected, we examined the relationship between setback distance and riparian and off-channel aquatic habitat formation on a 28-km reach of the Sacramento River, California, USA. We simulated 100 years of channel migration and cutoff events using 11 setback scenarios: 1 with existing riprap and 10 assuming setback constraints from about 0.5 to 4 bankfull channel widths (bankfull width: 235 m) from the channel. The percentage of land reworked by the river in 100 years relative to current (riprap) conditions ranged from 172% for the 100-m constraint setback scenario to 790% for the 800-m scenario. Three basic patterns occur as the setback distance increases due to different migration and cutoff dynamics: complete restriction of cutoffs, partial restriction of cutoffs, and no restriction of cutoffs. Complete cutoff restriction occurred at distances less than about one bankfull channel width (235 m), and no cutoff restriction occurred at distances greater than about three bankfull widths (∼700 m). Managing for point bars alone allows the setbacks to be narrower than managing for cutoffs and aquatic habitat. Results suggest that site-specific “restriction of cutoff” thresholds can be identified to optimize habitat benefits versus cost of acquired land along rivers affected by migration processes.     

苏南典型河段磷的分布及释放特性研究

通过测定常州典型河段河水和底泥中的磷含量,同时分析了磷在不同底泥颗粒中含量分布的变化,阐述了河流中磷的分布和转移趋势。结果表明:河水中的磷含量通常低于底泥间隙水中的磷含量,但当河流发生富营养化后,底泥中的磷大量向上层水体释放,使得河水中的磷含量不断增加。底泥有效磷与总磷含量之间没有明显相关性,而与底泥间隙水的磷含量之间存在着交换平衡。底泥颗粒以2μm~50μm的粒级为主,即以细砂和粉砂质有机-无机聚合体矿物颗粒为主。磷在底泥颗粒中的含量随着底泥粒径的增大而减少,且粒径越大的颗粒对磷的吸附能力越弱,其中的磷向外释放的可能性越大。     

大辽河水系主要污染物特征分析

对大辽河流域主要污染物CODMn(或CODCr)和氨氮多年时空变化特征进行分析,认为二者浓度在空间上都有从上游到下游显著升高的趋势,年内变化呈现明显的点源特征。     

重庆长江广阳岛生态修复设计与实践探索

广阳岛的生态修复设计以"长江风景眼,重庆生态岛"为价值追求,聚焦"生态"和"风景".生态修复设计围绕"摸清本底、自然恢复、生态修复、增加生物多样性"四个核心方面展开,通过运用土壤改良技术、海绵理水技术和生态疏田技术等生态修复技术提升生态修复科技内涵,使生态修复后的广阳岛以生态为魂、以风景为象.一期按照四种模式完成生态修...     

Soil erosion and non-point source pollution impacts assessment with the aid of multi-temporal remote sensing images

Soil erosion associated with non-point source pollution is viewed as a process of land degradation in many terrestrial environments. Careful monitoring and assessment of land use variations with different temporal and spatial scales would reveal a fluctuating interface, punctuated by changes in rainfall and runoff, movement of people, perturbation from environmental disasters, and shifts in agricultural activities and cropping patterns. The use of multi-temporal remote sensing images in support of environmental modeling analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) environment leading to identification of a variety of long-term interactions between land, resources, and the built environment has been a highly promising approach in recent years. This paper started with a series of supervised land use classifications, using SPOT satellite imagery as a means, in the Kao-Ping River Basin, South Taiwan. Then, it was designed to differentiate the variations of eight land use patterns in the past decade, including orchard, farmland, sugarcane field, forest, grassland, barren, community, and water body. Final accuracy was confirmed based on interpretation of available aerial photographs and global positioning system (GPS) measurements. Finally, a numerical simulation model (General Watershed Loading Function, GWLF) was used to relate soil erosion to non-point source pollution impacts in the coupled land and river water systems. Research findings indicate that while the decadal increase in orchards poses a significant threat to water quality, the continual decrease in forested land exhibits a potential impact on water quality management. Non-point source pollution, contributing to part of the downstream water quality deterioration of the Kao-Ping River system in the last decade, has resulted in an irreversible impact on land integrity from a long-term perspective.     

长江经济带绿色城镇化效率评价及其影响因素——基于多维城镇化视角

本文引入资源和环境因素,以城镇化综合指数为期望产出,运用SBM方向性距离函数测算了2010—2020年长江经济带112个地级市（州）的绿色城镇化效率,并采用空间面板模型和地理探测器对绿色城镇化效率的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明：长江经济带绿色城镇化效率整体水平不高,下游地区绿色城镇化效率高于上游和中游地区,资源消耗和环境污染是效率损失的主要来源;绿色城镇化效率表现出较为明显的热点—次热点—次冷点—冷点自东向西的带状分布格局,存在显著的空间正相关性。政府财政支出对绿色城镇化效率产生负向影响,外商直接投资和产业结构对提升绿色城镇化效率有显著的促进作用,且三者的影响具有地区差异性;市场力因素有利于绿色城镇化效率的提高。邻近城市间绿色城镇化效率的空间溢出效应明显,且空间溢出效应是长江经济带绿色城镇化效率空间差异的最主要因素,各因素的影响具有协同增强的作用。