混凝土结构可靠度的Monte Carlo模拟

简介了靠度与安全系数的区别；以混凝土结构为例，介绍了用Monte Carlo模拟来计算结构可靠度的方法。     

钙基脱硫剂孔隙网络动态生成特性

钙基脱硫剂孔隙结构特性直接影响到脱硫效果及脱硫剂的利用率,对其空间网络特性的描述将有助于分析SO2的扩散及反应特性. 在石灰石分解动力学和烧结机理的基础上,结合固体分解的成核机理,运用Monte-Carlo 方法,建立了脱硫剂孔隙网络的动态生成模型,对钙基脱硫剂分解形成的孔隙结构进行了动态模拟,并对生成孔结构的分形特性进行研究.结果表明,运用动态生成模型,可以给出石灰石分解形成的CaO内部孔隙的微观空间结构,且模拟生成的孔隙网络的分形维数与实验测定值基本吻合.     

Three long-range transport models compared to the ETEX experiment: a performance study

For operational or research purposes (dispersion computations of radioactive effluents during nuclear emergency situations, simulations of chemical pollution in the vicinity of thermal power plants), different models of passive dispersion in the atmosphere have been developed at the Environment Department of EDF’s R and D Division. This report presents the comparison of the performances of three such models: DIFTRA (lagrangian puff model, with operational goal), DIFEUL (three dimensional eulerian) and DIFPAR (Monte Carlo particle model) for the simulation of the first ETEX release, an international tracer campaign during which a passive tracer cloud has been followed over Europe. The results obtained in this study give model vs. experience differences of the same order as the model vs. experience differences observed during an international model comparison experiment using data of the Chernobyl release, the ATMES exercise. In addition to the standard statistical scores used in the evaluation of the performances of the transport models two asymmetric scores (in contradistinction with the Figure of Merit in Space) are proposed: “efficiency” and “power”. Their aim is to separate the two manners in which a model may be wrong: by predicting presence of pollutant while none is measured or conversely predicting absence when pollutant is actually detected.     

Does the African social spider Stegodyphus dumicola control the sex of individual offspring?

By scoring the chromosome number of developing embryos, we show that the sex ratio bias of the African social spider Stegodyphus dumicola Pocock is the result of an overproduction of female embryos. Only 17% of 585 embryos sexed from 14 egg sacs were male, a significant departure from a 1:1 sex ratio. We also explored the possibility of direct control of the sex of individual offspring in this species by examining the variance in the number of males per sac and the spatial distribution of male and female embryos within the sacs. We postulated that a variance in the number of males per sac lower than binomial (i.e., underdispersed or precise sex ratios) or a non-random distribution of male embryos within the sacs would suggest direct control of the sex of individual offspring. We found that the variance in the number of males per sac was indistinguishable from binomial and significantly larger than expected under exact ratios. Likewise, the spatial distribution of male embryos within three sacs examined was no more clustered than expected by chance. The sex ratio biasing mechanism in this species, therefore, apparently only allows control of the mean sex ratio but not of its variance. We present randomization and Monte Carlo methods that can be applied to test for departures from a random spatial arrangement of male and female embryos in an egg mass and for departures from binomial or exact ratios when not all members of a clutch have been sexed. Received: 21 October 1998 / Received in revised form: 23 March 1999 / Accepted: 26 April 1999     

基于ANSYS-PDS的含缺陷压力容器可靠性分析

为更准确地分析含缺陷压力容器的可靠性,提出采用ANSYS软件中的PDS模块建模求解,从本质上克服API 581压力容器可靠性分析的局限性,采用将压力容器的内径、原始壁厚、缺陷深度、压力容器内压设置为服从正态分布的随机变量的方法,基于响应面法结合蒙特卡洛法抽样分析,通过编写APDL代码,探讨含缺陷压力容器的可靠性.结果表...     

金属矿区周边农田土壤与农作物重金属健康风险评估

为探明金属矿区周边农田土壤与农作物重金属污染特征与人体健康风险,通过对矿区周边农田土壤和农作物进行样品采集并分析测定其Cd、Pb和As等重金属含量,采用地累积指数法、富集系数法和综合潜在生态风险指数法,研究土壤和农作物重金属的污染特征与综合潜在生态风险,采用蒙特卡罗模拟法进行土壤和农作物重金属的健康风险评估.结果表明,凉桥村土壤重金属污染主要是Cd、As和Pb,分别有100%、100%和75%以上土壤样品超过农田土壤筛选值（GB 15618-2018）,农作物中Cd、Pb、As、Cr和Ni这5种重金属的含量,均超标《食品安全国家标准食品中污染物限量》（GB 2762-2017）严重;地累积指数和富集系数表明Cd和As污染严重,综合潜在生态风险指数（RI）普遍高于600,具有极高生态风险,其中Cd、As和Pb贡献最大,贡献率分别为77.8%、14.4%和3.1%.健康风险评估表明,凉桥村居民通过摄入农作物以及误食土壤造成较高的致癌风险（致癌风险>10-6）以及非致癌健康风险（危害商值>1）;蒙特卡罗模拟人群健康风险分析显示,凉桥村土壤重金属污染暴露途径下具有较高致癌与非致癌风...     

多米诺事故情景下的区域环境风险评价

将多米诺效应纳入化工区环境风险评价中,采用扩展概率模型和蒙特卡洛模拟的方法计算多米诺事故的概率,运用大气和水扩散模型模拟污染事故的后果,进而利用地理信息系统分析在多米诺事故情景下的区域环境风险水平.结果表明,研究区域67.5%的风险源能引发二次事故,平均每个初始事故引发9.58次二次事故、17.21次三次事故.二次事故情景和三次事故情景下的区域环境风险值分别是一次事故的6.40倍和12.33倍,多米诺效应明显放大了区域环境风险值,应成为今后风险防范的重点.     

土壤理化性质对污染场地环境风险不确定性的影响

以某化工污染场地中挥发性有机物苯的环境风险评价为例,研究了土壤有机质含量、土壤含水率、土壤容重等理化性质对风险评价结果的影响.在土壤污染物苯浓度不变的前提下,土壤有机质含量、土壤含水率和土壤容重在场地条件下随机取值的变异范围分别为0.31%～2.31%、0.12～0.25和1.25～1.75 g/cm3.10 000次蒙特卡罗模拟结果表明,在95%置信水平下,苯的总致癌风险(概率值)在1.45×10-5～2.74×10-5之间.在该场地条件下,土壤有机质含量是影响苯风险不确定性的最主要因素,其对风险评价结果不确定性的贡献率高达90.2%;土壤含水率和土壤容重的贡献率分别为5.6%和4.2%.因此,在土壤污染健康风险评价过程中,应对理化参数进行敏感性分析,对评价结果影响较大的关键参数取值需慎重.      

Inverse uncertainty characteristics of pollution source identification for river chemical spill incidents by stochastic analysis

Identifying source information after river chemical spill occurrences is critical for emergency responses. However, the inverse uncertainty characteristics of this kind of pollution source inversion problem have not yet been clearly elucidated. To fill this gap, stochastic analysis approaches, including a regional sensitivity analysis method, identifiability plot and perturbation methods, were employed to conduct an empirical investigation on generic inverse uncertainty characteristics under a well-accepted uncertainty analysis framework. Case studies based on field tracer experiments and synthetic numerical tracer experiments revealed several new rules. For example, the release load can be most easily inverted, and the source location is responsible for the largest uncertainty among the source parameters. The diffusion and convection processes are more sensitive than the dilution and pollutant attenuation processes to the optimization of objective functions in terms of structural uncertainty. The differences among the different objective functions are smaller for instantaneous release than for continuous release cases. Small monitoring errors affect the inversion results only slightly, which can be ignored in practice. Interestingly, the estimated values of the release location and time negatively deviate from the real values, and the extent is positively correlated with the relative size of the mixing zone to the objective river reach. These new findings improve decision making in emergency responses to sudden water pollution and guide the monitoring network design.

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Sensitivity analysis of North American bird population estimates

The Partners in Flight North American Landbird Conservation Plan provided estimates of population sizes for 448 landbird species using a multiplicative model. Input parameters in this calculation included the area of state × Bird Conservation Region polygons, area-specific mean Breeding Bird Survey counts circa 1995, and adjustment factors for the distance over which species may presumably be correctly counted, the assumed pairing of singing males with non-singing females, and variability in the propensity of birds to sing over the course of the survey day. I assessed the sensitivity of this population calculation to changes in the input parameters. I assessed both local and global sensitivity of the model to changes in the parameters with Monte Carlo one-at-a-time simulations and the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (FAST). Monte Carlo simulations were an estimate of local model sensitivity whereas FAST estimated global model sensitivity, accommodating the potential shared variance between model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations suggested population estimates were 39% more sensitive to changes in the detection distance adjustment than to the other parameters; the other parameters were nearly equal in their contribution to model sensitivity. Conversely, FAST analysis determined that each of the input variables aside from the pair adjustment provided roughly equal contributions to variability in population estimates. The most efficient means for improving continental population estimates for birds surveyed by the Breeding Bird Survey will be through increased scrutiny of the species-specific distance detection and time-of-day adjustments and improved understanding in the spatial and temporal variability in the mean Breeding Bird Survey count.