Addressing Data Deficiency in Classifying Extinction Risk: a Case Study of a Radiation of Bignoniaceae from Madagascar

Abstract:  Of the roughly 12,000 known plant species in Madagascar, only 3% are found in the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List of Threatened Species. We assigned preliminary IUCN categories of threat to the species of a comparatively well-known tribe, Coleeae (Bignoniaceae), which comprises an endemic, species-rich radiation in Madagascar. Because the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria 3.1 discourage the use of the data-deficient category, we developed a novel method for differentiating between range-limited species and poorly sampled species. We used the Missouri Botanical Garden (MBG) gazetteer to determine where other collection efforts had taken place. We drew buffers around each Coleeae locality and determined how many times the surrounding area had been visited since the last sighting of the specimens by intersecting the buffers with all known botanical localities from the MBG gazetteer. We determined that at least 54% of the Coleeae species are threatened with extinction. Assignments of species to this category were often due to predicted future decline within their current area of occupancy and their lack of inclusion within the protected-area network (only 42% of species are known to occur in protected areas). Three species were presumed extinct, and an additional 12 have not been seen in decades. Among the species threatened with extinction, we "rescued" six of them from the data-deficient category by considering both the sample dates and localities of places where they occurred in relation to additional collections that took place in the immediate area. Due to their recent discovery, 15 species remained in the data-deficient category. If Coleeae is representative of the Malagasy flora, or at least of other endemic-radiated plant groups, then species loss in Madagascar may be even more extreme than is realized.     

Adversarial safety analysis: borrowing the methods of security vulnerability assessments

INTRODUCTION: Safety and security share numerous attributes. The author, who heads the (Security) Vulnerability Assessment Team at Los Alamos National Laboratory, therefore argues that techniques used to optimize security might be useful for optimizing safety. OPTIMIZING SECURITY: There are three main ways to attempt to improve security-security surveys, risk assessment (or "design basis threat"), and vulnerability assessments. The latter is usually the most effective. SAFETY ANALOGS: Vulnerability assessment techniques used to improve security can be applied to safety analysis--even though safety is not ordinarily viewed as having malicious adversaries (other than hazards involving deliberate sabotage). Thinking like a malicious adversary can nevertheless have benefits in identifying safety vulnerabilities. SUGGESTIONS: The attributes of an effective safety vulnerability assessment are discussed, and recommendations are offered for how such an adversarial assessment might work. CONCLUSION: A safety vulnerability assessment can potentially provide new insights, a fresh and vivid perspective on safety hazards, and increased safety awareness.     

青藏铁路列车运行控制系统的安全性分析

分析了青藏铁路中多种不利因素对轨道电路参数的影响 ;提出了在青藏铁路不宜采用现行基于轨道电路的列车运行控制系统 ,而应选择基于通信的列车运行控制系统的理由 ;给出了系统的基本结构及提高系统可靠性的措施 ;与此同时 ,就人们关心的无线传输列车控制数据的可靠性和安全性难题 ,通过建立马尔可夫模型的方法进行了分析     

Development of a Methodology for Selecting Criteria and Indicators of Sustainable Forest Management: A Case Study on Participatory Assessment

This paper describes an application of multiple criteria analysis (MCA) in assessing criteria and indicators adapted for a particular forest management unit. The methods include: ranking, rating, and pairwise comparisons. These methods were used in a participatory decision-making environment where a team representing various stakeholders and professionals used their expert opinions and judgements in assessing different criteria and indicators (C&I) on the one hand, and how suitable and applicable they are to a forest management unit on the other. A forest concession located in Kalimantan, Indonesia, was used as the site for the case study. Results from the study show that the multicriteria methods are effective tools that can be used as structured decision aids to evaluate, prioritize, and select sets of C&I for a particular forest management unit. Ranking and rating approaches can be used as a screening tool to develop an initial list of C&I. Pairwise comparison, on the other hand, can be used as a finer filter to further reduce the list. In addition to using these three MCA methods, the study also examines two commonly used group decision-making techniques, the Delphi method and the nominal group technique. Feedback received from the participants indicates that the methods are transparent, easy to implement, and provide a convenient environment for participatory decision-making.     

FISH RESPONSES TO TEMPERATURE TO ASSESS EFFECTS OF THERMAL DISCHARGE ON BIOLOGICAL INTEGRITY1

ABSTRACT: The applicability of the U.S Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) water temperature criteria in evaluating the impact of a thermal discharge from the P. H. Glatfelter Paper Company, Spring Grove, Pennsylvania, is analyzed. A review of the literature relative to 11 temperature Criteria was conducted for six fish species designated by the USEPA as “representative important species” (RIS) of the West Branch Codorus Creek, Susquehanna River drainage. The species were: Notemigonus crysolcucas (golden shiner), Notropis analostanus (satinfin shiner), Rhinichthys atratulus (blacknose dace), Catostomus comme-soni (white sucker), Lepomis gibbosus (pumpkinseed). and Micropterous salmoides (largemouth bass). It was found that by applying only USEPA suggested criteria that a complete evaluation was not satisfactory. Temperature behavior data, specifically preference and avoidance information, coupled with field sampliug was needed to properly assess the effects of the thermal effluent. The final analysis indicated that the thermal discharge of the paper company should have minimal effect on the fish community of Codorus Creek.     

Criteria for the Assessment of Sustainable Water Management

Pressure on the world’s water resources is increasing, restraining social and economic development in many countries, and threatening ecological values in others. In order to manage water resources in a more sustainable manner, new planning methodologies/processes for river basin management need to be developed. This study attempts to construct a set of useable normative criteria for the analysis and evaluation of such processes. The criteria were designed as a response to the lack of deductive approaches in the evaluation of methodologies and working procedures used in the context of river basin management, making it possible to highlight their potential for sustainable development. The criteria are based on the twin concepts of participation and integration. These concepts function as well-established dimensions of both sustainable development and sustainable river basin management, and they are of significant methodological relevance. A synthesis of the key aspects connected to the two concepts is undertaken, based on a broad literature review. Focus is laid on how in methodological terms, and in relation to regional water management, to achieve participation and integration in a decision-making or planning process. The criteria are concerned with how knowledge and values are integrated into the planning process and how commitment, legitimacy, or acceptance for the resulting plan is generated.     

水资源对人类安全的负面影响

水是丰富的.但水不等于水资源.由于水资源分布不均、人类需求的不断膨胀以及水资源污染等,造成了水资源的短缺.水资源关乎着人类的安全:冲突、战争因水而起;水污染威胁人类健康;水资源缺乏威胁着食品(粮食)安全;水资源制约着经济乃致社会的发展,成为人类生存的最大限制因子.     

洗浴用小型锅炉的测试与评价

经过多次对煤炭气化高温蒸汽锅炉、型煤锅炉、常压反烧锅炉和蒸汽锅炉等洗浴用小锅炉的测试、分析与评价,确认煤炭气化高温蒸汽锅炉的节能环保指标都比其他锅炉具有显著的优越性。它可以在常压下产生150℃的高温蒸汽,燃烧散煤时其排放的SO2和烟尘都达到国家一级排放标准,锅炉平均热效率可达78.05%,比同吨位的常压热水锅炉和蒸汽锅炉节能30%,比型煤锅炉节能约50%,比燃油锅炉、燃气锅炉、电锅炉节能约60%以上。     

生态健康、生态风险、生态安全概念辨析

在人类活动影响下,生态系统退化的速度越来越快,作为衡量生态系统存在状态的生态健康、生态风险、生态安全评价日益受到重视。然而,目前对于3个概念的界定不够明晰,在评价过程中指标体系混淆混用,致使理论研究也固步不前,影响了对实践的指导意义。生态健康、生态风险、生态安全的联系体现在评价主体的一致性和生态安全评价需要以生态健康评价、生态风险评价为基础;而三者的区别体现在内涵、评价对象以及评价的指标体系3个方面。     

生态企业的构架与考核指标的探讨

从论述生态企业的构架———经营思想、理念、生产方式、环境管理、环境建设入手 ,对生态企业创建的考核指标进行了探讨 ,提出了五个方面共 2 5项指标的考核体系 ,为生态企业的创建及验收提供了依据。