On the Estimation of Dispersal Kernels from Individual Mark-Recapture Data

We present a new method for estimating a distribution of dispersal displacements (a dispersal kernel) from mark-recapture data. One conventional method of calculating the dispersal kernel assumes that the distribution of displacements are Gaussian (e.g. resulting from a diffusion process) and that individuals remain within sampled areas. The first assumption prohibits an analysis of dispersal data that do not exhibit the Gaussian distribution (a common situation); the second assumption leads to underestimation of dispersal distance because individuals that disperse outside of sampling areas are never recaptured. Our method eliminates these two assumptions. In addition, the method can also accommodate mortality during a sampling period. This new method uses integrodifference equations to express the probability of spatial mark-recapture data; associated dispersal, survival, and recapture parameters are then estimated using a maximum likelihood method. We examined the accuracy of the estimators by applying the method to simulated data sets. Our method suggests designs for future mark-recapture experiments. Received: January 2004 / Revised: July 2005     

Scenarios of major terrestrial ecosystems in China

The spatial pattern and mean-center shift of major terrestrial ecosystems, termed Holdridge Life Zones (HLZ), during the periods from 1961 to 1990 (T1), from 2010 to 2039 (T2), from 2040 to 2069 (T3) and from 2070 to 2099 (T4) were analyzed by combining the zonal patterns of climatic change in China and the climatic change scenarios of HadCM2 and HadCM3. The results showed that nival area would decrease rapidly with temperature increase in the future. HadCM2 and HadCM3 predicted that the nival areas might disappear in 552 years and 204 years, respectively. Using both HadCM2 and HadCM3, the five HLZ types with the largest areal extent are nival zone, cool temperate moist forest, warm temperate moist forest, subtropical moist forest and boreal wet forest, which collectively account for more than 50% of China's land mass. Among these five HLZ types, nival zone, warm temperate moist forest and boreal wet forest would decrease continuously, whereas subtropical moist forest and cool temperate forest would increase continuously during the four periods. HLZ diversity and patch connectivity would increase continuously in the 21st century. The shift distances of mean centers of HLZ types simulated using HadCM3 were markedly greater than those simulated using HadCM2, in general. The results from both HadCM2 and HadCM3 showed that boreal wet forest, subtropical moist forest, tropical dry forest, warm temperate moist forest and subtropical wet forest had bigger shift ranges, indicating that these HLZ types are more sensitive to the climatic change scenarios of HadCM2 and HadCM3.     

Model-based combination of spatial information for stream networks

Evolutionary improvements in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) now routinely allow the management and mapping of spatial-temporal information. In response, the development of statistical models to combine information of different types and spatial support is of vital importance to environmental science. In this paper we develop a hierarchical spatial statistical model for environmental indicators of stream and river systems in the United States Mid-Atlantic Region by combining information from separate monitoring surveys, available contextual information on hydrologic units and remote sensing information. These models are used to estimate the indicators throughout the riverine system based on information from multiple sources and aggregate scales. The analysis is based on information underlying the Landscape Atlas of the mid-Atlantic region produced by the US Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). We also combine information from two overlapping separate monitoring surveys, the EMAP Stream and River Survey and the Maryland Biological Streams Survey. We present a general framework for comparative distributional analysis based on the concept of a relative spatial distribution. As an application, the spatial model is used to predict spatial distributions and relative spatial distributions for a watershed.     

广东省雾霾天气能见度的时空特征分析Ⅰ:季节变化

雾霾已经成为一种新的气象及环境灾害性现象,分析雾霾天气下低能见度的时空分布特征,对掌握雾霾的发生规律和减灾预报具有重要意义。文章利用1980—2003年广东省沿海地区26个地面气象观测站23年的气象观测资料,分析了广东省雾霾天气下能见度的时空分布特征。分析结果发现,1980—2003年广东地区雾霾天气下能见度的季节变化规律与雾天气时能见度的季节变化规律大体一致,即广东地区低能见度天气主要受雾天气的影响;另一方面,雾、霾天气时能见度的季节变化规律有很大不同,雾天气时能见度观测值在冬、春两季相对较高,最低值出现在3月份,最高值出现在9月份,其年变化表现为峰—谷型、稳定型和不规则波动型三种变化;霾天气时能见度的值在秋、冬两季相对较高,最低值出现在6月份,而且在5、6、7三个月中能见度值都很低;受广东沿海地形特征影响,雾天能见度的空间分布从西到东呈低—高—低—高的波列状分布,而霾天气时能见度的空间分布则没有明显的区域差异。     

Cluster detection using Bayes factors from overparameterized cluster models

In this paper, we consider the use of a partition model to estimate regional disease rates and to detect spatial clusters. Formal inference regarding the number of partitions (or clusters) can be obtained with a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. As an alternative, we consider the ability of models with a fixed, but overly large, number of partitions to estimate regional disease rates and to provide informal inferences about the number and locations of clusters using local Bayes factors. We illustrate and compare these two approaches using data on leukemia incidence in upstate New York and data on breast cancer incidence in Wisconsin.     

Contrasting home-range size and spatial partitioning in cryptic and sympatric pipistrelle bats

The extent of spatial partitioning in insectivorous bats, whose prey is patchily distributed and transient in nature, remains a contentious issue. The recent separation of a common Palaearctic bat, the pipistrelle, into Pipistrellus pipistrellus and Pipistrellus pygmaeus, which are morphologically similar and sympatric, provides an opportunity to examine this question. The present study used radio telemetry to address the spatial distribution and foraging characteristics of P. pipistrellus and P. pygmaeus in northeast Scotland, to test the hypothesis that coexistence between these species is facilitated through spatial segregation. We reveal large and significant differences in the spatial distribution and foraging characteristics of these two cryptic species. Individual P. pipistrellus home ranges were on average three times as large as that of P. pygmaeus, and they foraged for approximately an hour longer each night. Inter-specific spatial overlap was minimal (<5%) and core foraging areas of either species were essentially mutually exclusive despite the proximity of the two roosts. Inter-specific differences in range size were associated with the spatial dispersion of productive foraging sites within individual foraging ranges. P. pipistrellus foraging sites were highly dispersed, necessitating larger ranges. It is predicted that the spatial segregation revealed by the present study is a result of selection favouring the avoidance of competition in these species through differential habitat use.     

地统计学在土壤重金属研究中的应用及展望

从采矿学与地质学研究中发展起来的地统计学是应用数理统计学的一个分支。与传统的统计学相比，地统计学可应用于土壤重金属研究中，能探索土壤重金属的空间分布特征及其变异规律。地统计学的基础理论与方法主要包括：区域化变量、半方差函数、克立格空间插值技术。半方差函数可以用来描述研究土壤重金属分布的空间相关性；而克立格插值可以对未采样区土壤重金属的含量进行无偏最优估计。在对地统计学理论进行简要阐述的基础上，回顾了近些年在土壤重金属研究的采样设计、空间结构分析、空间插值等方面的应用，并就其应用前景作了展望。     

A genetic component to size in queens of the ant,<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Formica truncorum</Emphasis>

The genetic basis of morphological traits in social insects remains largely unexplored. This is even true for individual body size, a key life-history trait. In the social insects, the size of reproductive individuals affects dispersal decisions, so that small size in queens is often associated with reduced dispersal, and large size with long-range dispersal and independent colony founding. Worker size is connected to division of labour when workers specialize in certain tasks according to their size. In many species, variation in worker size has been shown to increase colony performance. In this study, we present the first evidence of an additive genetic component to queen size in ants, using maternal half sib analysis. We also compared intra-colony size variation in colonies with high (queen doubly mated) versus low (queen singly mated) genetic variability. We found a high and significant heritability (h²=0.51) for queen size in one of the two study years, but not in the other. Size variation among queens was greater in colonies headed by a doubly mated queen in one of the study years, but not in the other. This indicates that genetic factors can influence queen size, but that environmental factors may override these under some circumstances. The heritability for worker size was low (h²=0.09) and non-significant. Increased genetic diversity did not increase worker size variation in the colonies. Worker size appeared largely environmentally determined, potentially allowing colonies to adjust worker size ratios to current conditions.Communicated by J. Heinze     

苏州河市郊段底泥中COD_(Cr)和NH_3-N的空间分布特征

对苏州河截流区外河段(城郊段)东大盈河口—北新泾,按河道形态,支流与城镇分布等因素,沿程采集24个底泥柱样,测定其不同部位不同深度底泥中COD_(Cr)和NH_3-N含量,分析COD_(Cr)和NH_3-N在沿程和垂向上的分布特征及其成因。结果表明,底泥中污染沿程分布呈不规则波状起伏,东大盈河、蕴藻浜、盐铁塘、封浜、华漕港、新槎浦等支流口,浮泥层中COD_(Cr)含量达2万mg/kg,超过背景值2—3倍,支流口下游200m范围内均较高;黄渡小支流口、华漕港支流口浮泥层中NH_3-H含量达250mg/kg,超过背景值3倍。在垂向分布上,底泥柱样都出现峰值分布,在某些弯道及支流口出现递减分布。底泥耗氧污染程度主要与支流及其排污量有关,其次是弯道凸岸处污染物易于沉积富集。这为苏州河市郊段环境综合治理、底泥疏浚和处置提供了科学依据。