干旱、农业旱灾与农户旱灾脆弱性分析——以邢台县典型农户为例

从微观农户角度分析了干旱、农业旱灾和农户旱灾脆弱性的成因。文章认为，自然降水不足或与作物需求匹配不均是造成农业干旱的动力，农户对干旱的应付能力不足是导致干旱成灾的原因。这种应付能力既受区域水资源可利用量的限制，也与农户的作物种植结构、灌溉支付能力、风险认识和对农业的依赖程度有关。农户旱灾脆弱性既与农业干旱有关，又受到人均资源和收入、种植和消费结构、生态环境质量、政策、市场价格等多重因素的作用。最脆     

长江中游地区防洪与农业现代化

１９９８年长江大洪水后开始实施的“平垸行洪，退田还尖”的土地利用调整方案，从长远来说应录求农业安且且收入逐渐提高条件下的土地利用，长江中游地区应积极推进农业现代化，提高农业劳动生产率，转移，减水分蓄洪区的人口，移民建镇，对区内的土地要促进其规模经或，由优秀的有文化的农民经营，平时只有少量的直接从事农业生产的经营管理人员，农忙时则大量地作用委节性合同工或实现机械化；大洪水时退田还湖，减轻长江干流大洪     

甘肃省农业循环经济发展评价与区域差异分析

综合评价值的计算已成为农业循环经济发展水平定量评价的主要方法，也是目前循环经济研究领域定量研究的热点之一。构建一套系统科学的农业循环经济发展评价指标体系，对区域农业循环经济发展水平进行综合评价，以改善农业环境，杜绝资源浪费，实现农业可持续发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。依据循环经济发展的“4R”原则和可持续发展理论，构建了甘肃省农业循环经济评价指标体系，采用因子分析法和加权函数法对甘肃省及其14个地州市的农业循环经济发展水平进行了综合评价与分析，提出了甘肃省及其各区域的农业循环经济发展建议。     

土壤重金属的植物污染化学研究进展

针对中国土壤重金属污染加剧的趋势,为改善土壤环境质量和保障农产品安全,提出了土壤重金属的植物污染化学研究领域.结合多年的研究工作,从土壤重金属的植物根际化学行为、土壤重金属的植物吸收与解毒机制和重金属污染土壤的植物-微生物交互作用等方面简要阐述了土壤-植物系统中重金属的分布、存在形态、迁移转化、累积及生物学效应和控制规律的研究进展,并对将来的植物污染化学理论研究提出了展望.     

A Note on the Use of Conservation Practices in U.S. Agriculture

This article measures the effect of an increase in productivityattributable to an increase in soil organic carbon associated with theincrease in the use of conservation practices in agriculture in theUnited States. Both the direct and indirect effects are calibrated. Theanalytical approach used consists of a dynamic computable generalequilibrium model composed of 14 producing sectors, 10 consumingsectors, seven household categories classified by income, and agovernment. The results suggest that the impact of a change inproductivity is an increase in output over a six year period starting in1998 in field crops. The most significant impact is felt in thelivestock sector. This is because field crops are a major input in theproduction of livestock. The food processing sector also exhibits arelatively large increase because of the increase in inputs of both fieldcrops and livestock. Manufacturing output increases primarily becauseoverall investment rises and most investment utilizes manufacturinggoods. The other producing sectors are generally unaffected by theincrease in agricultural production due to an increase in soil organiccarbon. Coincident with the increase in the production of field cropsis a relatively large decrease in the price of field crops. Othernoticeable price reductions occur in the livestock sector and the foodprocessing sector. For the consuming sectors, the consumption offood and alcohol and tobacco increase but consumption in all of theother sectors remains basically unchanged. Prices in the food andalcohol and tobacco sectors decline by about 1% while theprices in the other sectors remain static. Household welfare increasesin the aggregate by only 0.1% with this increase occurringuniformly across all household categories. Revenue received by thegovernment increases a modest 2% in response to an increase inoutput and, hence, an increase in taxes paid. The results indicate thatthere are significant production benefits for several sectors that can berealized by an increase in the use of conservation practices inagricultural production which, in turn, enhances soil organic carbon.There are a number of policy options available to promote the use ofconservation practices. These include education and technicalassistance, financial assistance, research and development, landretirement, and regulation and taxes.     

东北地区农业现代化与新型城镇化协调发展研究

新型城镇化与农业现代化作为"三化"、"四化"乃至"五化"战略的重要核心内容,研究新型城镇化与农业现代化的协调发展对于开创中国未来城乡经济社会发展一体化的新格局至关重要。以东北三省34个地级城市为研究对象,构建农业现代化与新型城镇化的评价指标体系,结合熵值赋权、变异系数赋权的综合确权法测算城市农业现代化与新型城镇化的发展水平,基于耦合协调度模型探讨二者的耦合度与协调发展度,并划分其阶段类型,研究表明:(1)东北三省新型城镇化的发展水平排序:辽宁省吉林省黑龙江省,农业现代化的发展优势排序:黑龙江省辽宁省吉林省;辽宁与吉林省的新型城镇化发展速度超前于农业现代化,仅黑龙江省的新型城镇化发展滞后于农业现代化;(2)东北三省新型城镇化的高值区分布在以哈尔滨为核心的黑龙江省西南、以长春为核心的吉林省中部、以沈阳和大连为核心的辽宁省中部及南端,农业现代化的高值区分布在哈—大—齐—绥沿线的松嫩平原;沈阳、大连、哈尔滨、长春新型城镇化水平居于东北三省前列,哈尔滨、沈阳、齐齐哈尔、绥化农业现代化水平位于首位;(3)辽宁省新型城镇化与农业现代化的耦合协调发展度均强于黑龙江省,吉林省略低;耦合度高值区位于黑龙江省东北部的三江平原、辽宁省的沿海经济带,协调发展度高值区位于黑龙江省西南部的松嫩平原及以长春、沈阳、大连为核心的小范围圈层区域;仅哈尔滨与沈阳市处于勉强协调阶段,多数城市处于高强度、中高强度拮抗耦合与轻度、中度失调阶段。     

Ecological impacts of early 21st century agricultural change in Europe – A review

The impacts of agricultural land use are far-reaching and extend to areas outside production. This paper provides an overview of the ecological status of agricultural systems across the European Union in the light of recent policy changes. It builds on the previous review of 2001 devoted to the impacts of agricultural intensification in Western Europe. The focus countries are the UK, The Netherlands, Boreal and Baltic countries, Portugal, Hungary and Romania, representing a geographical spread across Europe, but additional reference is made to other countries. Despite many adjustments to agricultural policy, intensification of production in some regions and concurrent abandonment in others remain the major threat to the ecology of agro-ecosystems impairing the state of soil, water and air and reducing biological diversity in agricultural landscapes. The impacts also extend to surrounding terrestrial and aquatic systems through water and aerial contamination and development of agricultural infrastructures (e.g. dams and irrigation channels). Improvements are also documented regionally, such as successful support of farmland species, and improved condition of watercourses and landscapes. This was attributed to agricultural policy targeted at the environment, improved environmental legislation, and new market opportunities. Research into ecosystem services associated with agriculture may provide further pressure to develop policy that is targeted at their continuous provisioning, fostering motivation of land managers to continue to protect and enhance them.     

农业化学品投入状况及其对环境的影响

农业生产中,农业化学品的大量使用产生了明显的负外部性影响,尤其是农业的面源污染问题随化肥、农药投入的增加而不断加剧。通过统计分析方法,对农业化学品投入数量及区域分布特征、农业化学品投入存在的问题及其所造成的面源污染问题进行分析。结果表明:化肥和农药总投入不断增加,其中河南、山东、江苏、安徽、湖北和湖南6省投入总额接近全国的一半;农业化学品使用存在过量投入、投入结构失衡和施肥施药技术落后等问题;农业化学投入品的过量使用造成的环境污染问题正不断加剧,农业面源污染排放对污染总量的贡献率不断上升。最后提出了相关政策建议,包括加强农业面源污染控制的政策框架和配套制度建设、推广成熟的化肥农药施用技术和加强农业环保教育。     

中国农村经济制度变迁与农业周期性增长分析

农业增长除受到基本投入要素的影响,还受制度因素的影响。对于制度因素对农业增长的影响的研究,大多文献是从定性的角度分析。本文运用计量经济学和统计方法,通过对1978-2007年总体和不同阶段农业增长与农村土地制度、价格制度、财政制度和税费制度进行理论和实证分析,探讨制度变迁对农业生产总值增长的推动作用。文章通过分析发现,我国农业在要素投入并没有周期性变化的情况下,农业总产值增长率却呈现一定的周期性。为了探究农业周期性增长的原因,本文结合我国农村经济制度变迁的路径和农业总产值指数变化的特点,将改革开放以来我国农业增长分为三个阶段进行分析,同时根据Griliches生产函数构造计量分析模型。通过分析发现,正是由于不同阶段农村土地制度、价格制度、财政制度和税费制度的变迁,导致农业生产总值增长率周期性起伏。因此,制度变迁是改革开放后中国农业经济增长的内在决定性因素。     

资源贫瘠地区农户技术采用的影响因素分析

引入双槛模型,分两个阶段考察滇西南资源贫瘠地区农户改良陆稻技术采用行为的影响因素。第一,农户决定是否采用改良陆稻技术(采用决定)的影响因素;第二,如果采用,农户决定改良陆稻技术采用程度(采用程度决定)的影响因素。研究发现,影响农户决定是否采用改良陆稻技术的因素和影响农户决定改良陆稻技术采用程度的因素存在很大差异。农户所拥有的资源禀赋状况,例如耕地面积、市场远近、缺粮程度、海拔高度和有无技术推广项目等对农户的采用决定有显著的正向影响;而家庭劳动力比重和水田面积比例则有显著的负向影响。农户家庭规模和台地面积比例对农户技术采用程度决定呈现显著的正向影响,而耕地面积、水田面积比例和海拔高度则对其呈现显著的负向影响。因此,在制定资源贫瘠山区的农业技术推广政策时,应该充分注意区分影响技术推广广度和深度的不同因素,使不同政策措施更能在资源缺乏的情况下具有适应性和针对性。