Per-capita estimations of long-term historical land use and the consequences for global change research

Changes in land use and land cover are important in global climate change, but the many uncertainties in historical estimates seriously hamper climate modelling. We collected new data on estimated per capita land use over the last two millennia, using new data sources from the Humanities. In general, and in agreement with literature, we found that per capita land use indeed has not been constant in the past, but differ per region and over time. Land use in the distant past was mostly less than 1 ha/cap. However, the recently colonised regions show much higher values and have experienced a much higher per capita land use for the recent past. Most known trajectories follow a concave or bell-shaped curve towards the present.     

Patterns and drivers of forest land cover changes in tropical semi-deciduous forests in Ghana

This study was conducted to determine the patterns and drivers of forest land cover changes in Bobiri and Oboyow Forest Reserves (BFR and OFR, respectively), Ghana. Landsat images were employed to determine forest land cover types and changes in 1990, 2000 and 2010 using supervised classification method. Factors that drive forest land cover changes in the forest reserves were determined using a semi-structured questionnaire and field observations. Generally, closed-canopy forest decreased by 49% in both forests over 20-year period resulting in a tremendous increase in open-canopy forest (BFR: 85%; OFR: 46%) and non-forest land cover types (BFR: 48–80% OFR: 127–350%). Factors such as logging manual illiteracy among timber operators, offences of authorised timber operators, ineffective community participation, harvesting schedule revision, chainsaw logging, illegal logging, bushfires, fuel gathering and weak penalty for offences were identified as contributing to rapid depletion of closed canopy forest cover in the forest reserves.     

Bi-directional sex change in a coral-dwelling goby

Bi-directional sex change has recently been reported among obligate coral-dwelling gobies of the genus Gobiodon. However, neither the functional role of this pattern of sex change nor the frequency of sex change in either direction in natural populations is known. We investigated the social structure and pattern of sex change of Gobiodon histrio at Lizard Island on the Great Barrier Reef. The social structure of G. histrio within coral colonies usually consisted of a single juvenile or a heterosexual adult pair. The size of adult social groups was not constrained by coral colony size. In contrast to expectations for pair-forming species, G.␣histrio was primarily a protogynous hermaphrodite. All immature G. histrio were females and sex change from female to male occurred readily when two mature females were placed in a coral colony. In addition, male G. histrio were able to change back to females when two mature males were placed in a coral. Sex change from female to male, however, occurred with over twice the frequency of sex change from male to female. Where two males were placed in a coral colony, heterosexual pairs were most frequently re-established by immigration of females from outside the treatment population. This pattern might be predicted if sex change from male to female is more expensive than sex change from female to male for G. histrio. Where sex change is expensive, movement may be favoured over sex change, particularly where coral densities are high and movement among corals incurs little mortality risk. Received: 10 November 1997 / Accepted after revision: 16 May 1998     

网络创意产业、低碳经济与上海都市型工业园转型

兴起于1990年代的都市型工业园为大都市经济发展、城市充分就业、城市空间合理利用做出了积极贡献。然而面临信息技术快速发展、低碳城市建设和大都市新经济迅速兴起，都市型工业园转型势在必行。深入剖析网络创意产业与低碳经济的本质，认为网络创意产业是都市型工业园转型和发展低碳经济的首选。以上海为例，采用统计方法对比分析都市工业行业发展现状和制约因素，从创意产业和低碳经济的内涵针对都市工业园转型，建构了都市工业园转型的理念、路径和规划策略。通过建构上海典型都市工业园转型与网络创意产业发展耦合路径引介，为我国其他都市区工业园转型和建设提供借鉴     

210Pb deposition in the far East Asia: controlling factors of its spatial and temporal variations

In order to better understand the behavior of ²¹⁰Pb deposition in Far East Asia, comprehensive data of monthly ²¹⁰Pb deposition, which includes several time-series and spatial distribution data at 14 stations in Japan and 2 stations in Taiwan, were analyzed. Pb-210 deposition at most of the sites exhibited a typical seasonal change with higher values in winter and lower values in summer; especially, the greatest ²¹⁰Pb deposition in the world occurred in winter at sites beside the Japan Sea. The deposition behavior of ²¹⁰Pb in Far East Asia differed between winter and summer. The meteorological phenomenon peculiar to winter of the Japan Sea side, i.e., formation of the Japan Sea convergence zone, might cause the high ²¹⁰Pb concentration in rainwater, as may heavy snowfall. The ²¹⁰Pb concentration in rainwater showed long-term variability, although this differed between winter and summer. This long-term variability may be related to climatological factors such as El Niño.     

Influence of ionic strength and pH on the limitation of latex microsphere deposition sites on iron-oxide coated sand by humic acid

This study, for the first time, investigates and quantifies the influence of slight changes in solution pH and ionic strength (IS) on colloidal microsphere deposition site coverage by Suwannee River Humic Acid (SRHA) in a column matrix packed with saturated iron-oxide coated sand.Triple pulse experimental (TPE) results show adsorbed SRHA enhances microsphere mobility more at higher pH and lower IS and covers more sites than at higher IS and lower pH. Random sequential adsorption (RSA) modelling of experimental data suggests 1 μg of adsorbed SRHA occupied 9.28 ± 0.03 × 10⁹ sites at pH7.6 and IS of 1.6 mMol but covered 2.75 ± 0.2 × 10⁹ sites at pH6.3 and IS of 20 mMol. Experimental responses are suspected to arise from molecular conformation changes whereby SRHA extends more at higher pH and lower ionic strength but is more compact at lower pH and higher IS. Results suggest effects of pH and IS on regulating SRHA conformation were additive.     

Changes in the upper limits of tree species distribution in the Western Caucasus (Belaya River basin) related to recent climate warming

To estimate the response of tree vegetation to recent climate warming in the Western Caucasus, the population state of several tree species at the upper limit of their distribution has been estimated in three mountain massifs in the Belaya River basin. For this purpose, the average and maximum stem diameters, vitality, and age of trees have been determined in the transitional zone between middle-mountain and high-mountain beech-fir forests (1400–1700 m a.s.l.) and in crooked birch forests growing at the upper timberline (1810–2025 m). The upper limits of Acer platanoides, A. pseudoplatanus, Ulmus glabra, and Betula litwinowii have shown a tendency to rise. The upper limit of Abies nordmanniana has remained unchanged over the past few decades, which may be explained by a decrease in moisture supply during the warm season.     

Identifying Reefs of Hope and Hopeful Actions: Contextualizing Environmental, Ecological, and Social Parameters to Respond Effectively to Climate Change

Abstract:  Priorities for conservation, management, and associated activities will differ based on the interplay between nearness of ecosystems to full recovery from a disturbance (pristineness), susceptibility to climate change (environmental susceptibility [ES]), and capacity of human communities to cope with and adapt to change (social adaptive capacity [AC]). We studied 24 human communities and adjacent coral reef ecosystems in 5 countries of the southwestern Indian Ocean. We used ecological measures of abundance and diversity of fishes and corals, estimated reef pristineness, and conducted socioeconomic household surveys to determine the AC of communities adjacent to selected coral reefs. We also used Web-based oceanographic and coral mortality data to predict each site's ES to climate warming. Coral reefs of Mauritius and eastern Madagascar had low ES and consequently were not predicted to be affected strongly by warm water, although these sites were differentiated by the AC of the human community. The higher AC in Mauritius may increase the chances for successful self-initiated recovery and protective management of reefs of this island. In contrast, Madagascar may require donor support to build AC as a prerequisite to preservation efforts. The Seychelles and Kenya had high ES, but their levels of AC and disturbance differed. The high AC in the Seychelles could be used to develop alternatives to dependence on coral reef resources and reduce the effects of climate change. Pristineness weighted toward measures of fish recovery was greatest for Kenya's marine protected areas; however, most protected areas in the region were far from pristine. Conservation priorities and actions with realistic chances for success require knowledge of where socioecological systems lie among the 3 axes of environment, ecology, and society.     

Behavioural responses to climate change: Asymmetry of intentions and impacts

In seeking to determine whether climate change mitigation strategies are effective, researchers and policy-makers typically use energy consumption as an indicator. UK government data show that energy use amongst the public is rising, despite measures to encourage energy conservation. Yet, research to date has not explicitly asked which actions the public are taking with the express intention of mitigating climate change. Using Stern's classification of impact-oriented and intent-oriented behaviour research, the research described in this paper examines both actions taken ‘out of concern for climate change’ and energy conservation practices amongst the UK public. The findings show a clear divergence between actions prescribed by policy-makers (i.e. energy conservation) and those taken by the public to mitigate climate change (e.g., recycling). Furthermore, those who take action to conserve energy generally do so for reasons unconnected to the environment (e.g., to save money). Regression analyses highlight the distinct determinants of these two behavioural categories. These findings imply that surveys using energy reduction as an indicator of public response to climate change falsely assume that these can be equated; consequently, they will provide a distorted picture of behavioural response. Possible reasons for the asymmetry of intentions and impacts, and policy implications, are discussed.     

基于SWAT模型的汉江流域水资源对气候变化的响应

汉江流域未来的气候变化趋势和对水资源的影响，将直接关系到南水北调工程和引江济汉工程的使用和效益。因此，分析研究汉江流域水资源对气候变化的响应特点，可为地面调水、空中水资源开发、应对气候变化的不利影响和更好地保护南水北调中线水源区的水资源提供科学依据。以1971～2000年为基准期，应用SWAT模型对汉江流域基准期内的逐月径流进行了模拟；在30 a基准期径流模拟的基础上,以全球变化背景下可能出现的25种不同气候变化模式为假设条件,模拟出各假设气候变化模式下汉江流域水资源状况，获得了各气候变化模式下汉江流域水资源相对于基准期的变化率，研究了汉江流域水资源对气候变化的响应程度。结果表明：模型模拟精度高于评价标准（〖WTBX〗Ens>05，r2>06〖WTBZ〗），SWAT模型适用于汉江流域的径流模拟；不同气候变化情景下,汉江流域径流变化较实际蒸散发的变化明显；降水对地表径流、基流的影响要大于气温；气温对实际蒸散发的影响大于降水;降水增加或气温降低都会导致径流增加,而降水增加或气温增加都会导致实际蒸散发的增加.