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71.
J. R. M. Hosking 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1985,21(4):677-682
ABSTRACT: Fractional differencing is a tool for modeling time series which have long-term dependence; i.e., series in which the correlation between distant observations, though small, is not negligible. Fractionally differenced ARIMA models are formed by permitting the differencing parameter d in the familiar Box-Jenkins ARIMA(p, d, q) models to take nonintegral values; they permit the simultaneous modeling of the long-term and short-term behavior of an observed time series. This paper discusses the usefulness of fractional differencing to time-series modeling, with emphasis on hydrologic applications. A methodology for fitting fractionally differenced ARIMA models is described, and examples are presented. 相似文献
72.
Sheryl L. Franklin David R. Maidment 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1986,22(4):611-621
ABSTRACT: A cascade model for forecasting municipal water use one week or one month ahead, conditioned on rainfall estimates, is presented and evaluated. The model comprises four components: long term trend, seasonal cycle, autocorrelation and correlation with rainfall. The increased forecast accuracy obtained by the addition of each component is evaluated. The City of Deerfield Beach, Florida, is used as the application example with the calibration period from 1976–1980 and the forecast period the drought year of 1981. Forecast accuracy is measured by the average absolute relative error (AARE, the average absolute value of the difference between actual and forecasted use, divided by the actual use). A benchmark forecast is calculated by assuming that water use for a given week or month in 1981 is the same as the average for the corresponding period from 1976 to 1980. This method produces an AARE of 14.6 percent for one step ahead forecasts of monthly data and 15.8 percent for weekly data. A cascade model using trend, seasonality and autocorrelation produces forecasts with AARE of about 12 percent for both monthly and weekly data while adding a linear relationship of water use and rainfall reduces the AARE to 8 percent in both cases if it is assumed that rainfall is known during the forecast period. Simple rainfall predictions do not increase the forecast accuracy for water use so the major utility of relating water use and rainfall lies in forecasting various possible water use sequences conditioned on sequences of historical rainfall data. 相似文献
73.
J. P. Haltiner J. D. Salas 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1988,24(5):1083-1089
ABSTRACT: Time series models of the ARMAX class were investigated for use in forecasting daily riverflow resulting from combined snowmelt/rainfall. The Snowmelt Runoff Model (Martinec-Rango Model) is shown to have a form similar to the ARMAX model. The advantage of the ARMAX approach is that analytical model identification and parameter estimation techniques are available. In addition, previous forecast errors can be included to improve forecasts and confidence limits can be estimated for the forecasts. Diagnostic checks are available to determine if the model is performing properly. Finally, Kalman filtering can be used to allow the model parameters to vary continuously to reflect changing basin runoff conditions. The above advantages result in improved flow forecasts with fewer model parameters. 相似文献
74.
75.
快速断电安全技术中半导体中性点开关结构性能的研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
对我国目前半导体中性点开关的结构 ,工作过程 ,性能进行了分析 ;现行中性点开关所存在的问题为电路拓扑结构不合理 ,关断时间过长或过短 ,过长不满足快速断电安全技术的要求 ,过短又易引起过电压 ,使中性点开关失控。笔者提出了采用绝缘门极双极性晶体管 (IGBT) ,构成半导体中性点开关的可行方案。同时指出 ,开发新型快速断电安全技术装置 ,将大大提高我国煤矿安全技术水平 相似文献
76.
高层建筑火灾人员疏散和人员伤亡的模拟 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
基于建筑火灾全风网网络模型的基础上 ,结合紧急疏散模型 ,模拟火灾时期疏散时间和建筑物内人员滞留的情况 ,同时也可以模拟可能出现的伤亡情况 ,有助于高层建筑的疏散系统设计 ,为火灾的再现提供了一个有效的分析工具 ,也为高层建筑火灾的风险评价提供了理论数据 相似文献
77.
陕西大暴雨时空分布特征及减灾对策 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
通过对陕西1957~1998年共42年97个测站的逐日降水量中大暴雨资料进行时间和空间尺度分析,总结归纳出陕西灾害性大暴雨的天气气候基本特征和规律性,并提出相应的减灾对策。 相似文献
78.
Gideon Fishelson 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1973,9(4):801-815
The study contains the methodology of finding the optimal time to start the operation of a desalting plant or any other non conventional source of water for agricultural use in Israel. The essence of the methodology is the moving equilibrium price and quantity of agricultural products. The market of agricultural products is represented by a single demand curve and a supply curve which is derived from the agricultural sector production function. Both the demand for and the supply of agricultural products functions are shifting over time. The marginal value product of water is the critical value that determines the optimal time of a desalting plant. The study is static in the sense that dynamic aspects per se are not dealt with-e.g. learning by doing of building and operating desalting plants. The empirical results although used for illustrative purposes can be used as reference points for other detailed and more ‘exact’ studies on water desalination. 相似文献
79.
Differences between scientist and policy-maker response types and times, or the “how” and “when” of action, constrain effective
water resource management in suburbanizing watersheds. Policy-makers are often rushed to find a single policy that can be
applied across an entire, homogeneous, geopolitical region, whereas scientists undertake multiyear research projects to appreciate
the complex interactions occurring within heterogeneous catchments. As a result, watershed management is often practiced with
science and policy out of synch. Meanwhile, development pressures in suburban watersheds create changes in the social and
physical fabric and pose a moving target for science and policy. Recent and anticipated advances in the scientific understanding
of urbanized catchment hydrology and pollutant transport suggest that management should become increasingly sensitive to spatial
heterogeneities in watershed features, such as soil types, terrain slopes, and seasonal watertable profiles. Toward this end,
policy-makers should encourage funding scientific research that characterizes the impacts of these watershed heterogeneities
within a geopolitical zoning and development framework. 相似文献
80.
近场地震作用下框架结构的损伤机理 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
首先讨论了近场地面运动的特征及各种抗震规范对近场地震的设防,然后采用非线性时程分析方法,对一个10层框架结构在近场地震作用下的响应特性进行了研究。同时对该框架结构进行了Pushover分析,通过与非线性时程分析结果进行对比,说明Pushover分析方法不能正确评估结构在近场地震作用下的抗震性能。 相似文献