A Sensitivity Analysis of an Integrated Modelling Approach to Assess the Risk of Wind-borne Spread of Foot-and-mouth Disease Virus from Infected Premises

The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline, based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be factored into contingency plans.

我国海岸侵蚀灾害及对策

文章通过大量实际资料展现了我国海岸侵蚀灾害的严重性;从入海泥沙、人类活动、地面沉降、海岸特性、海平面上升等方面分析了造成海岸侵蚀的原因;提出了一系列防治海岸侵蚀灾害的对策。     

爆炸事故过程分析中不确定性问题处理方法

针对事故过程分析中的不确定性问题,指出了不确定问题在危险分析中的重要性及处理该问题的复杂性和难点,列出了几种基于非线性数学方法处理不确定问题的基本方法,如微分法、MonteCarlo模拟、Fourier方法、响应表面法等,并对之进行了比较.建议在处理事故过程的不确定性时采用Monte Carlo模拟.     

长江中游平原湖区农业开发地域分工与农产品专业化生产研究

农业生产地域分工与农产品专业化生产是使农业从自然经济阶段向以市场为导向的商品农产品生产转变的一个标志。本文在分析该区农业布局现状及其存在问题的基础上，提出了农业总体布局的设想与不同类型地域农业开发的主攻方向与对策，并对市场经济体制下粮食、棉花、猪、禽、水产品等农产品生产基地的地域选择、建设规模与技术措施等进行了探讨。     

区域性“减灾十年初步规划”的编制原则

本文简要介绍区域性“减灾十年初步规划”编制的一般原则，包括规划编制的意义、目的、编制顺序和规划应注意的几个方面，并提出规划成果的实施意见。可供各地编制规划时参考。     

Ecophysiological indicators of the state of animal populations exposed to damaging factors

Indices of abundance and reproduction rate are considered in some groups of aquatic and terrestrial vertebrates from the zones of technogenic disasters. Upon a critical population decline caused by external destructive factors, such as emissions of acute ecotoxicants, the ecophysiological and behavioral compensatory mechanisms are activated, which provide for restoration of the total population size to the optimum within a short period of time. Environmental pollution with substances disturbing the reproductive function has the gravest consequences for animals. In this case, population size may remain fairly high, and, therefore, the effect of enhanced reproduction as a response to population decline does not take place, which eventually leads to a gradual but irreversible destruction of the population. Pathologies of reproduction should be used as a criterion for assessing the state of animals in the zones of technogenic disasters.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 1, 2005, pp. 32–38.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Shilova, Shatunovskii.     

Paleoecology and dynamics of forest ecosystems in Central Evenkia during the past 2400 years

New data on the composition of surface assemblages of plant macroremains from soil and swamp samples have been obtained in the study of geomorphologically different localities in the middle reaches of the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River. The results of paleocarpological analysis of forest soil sections supported by relevant palynological and geochronological data are presented. Natural changes of the forest cover over the past 2400 years and quantitative characteristics of the paleoclimate during each stage are described.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 1, 2005, pp. 3–10.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Koshkarova, Koshkarov.     

区域排污权交易模型研究

本文在分析了排污权交易研究进展的基础上，指出区域污染权交易比传统的排污权交易意义更大，并提出排污权交易地区交叉补贴的设想：将发达地区的排污权交易所得向欠发达地区转移，以解决欠发达地区产业结构调整乏力以及对发达地区的二次污染和发达地区环境容量资源短缺问题。在不考虑交易成本的假设下，通过建立不同地区排污权交易模型以确定排污权交易总量及其交易价格以及交易所获净增纯收益等。太湖流域由于经济最为发达，环境问题十分突出，是目前我国最适宜率先进行区域排污权交易试点的地区。通过假定太湖流域无锡和常州两市进行排污权交易，并利用两市1991—2000年的环境统计资料等相关资料进行了验证。计算结果表明区域排污权交易不仅具有明显的经济和环境效益，而且也是协调环境区域矛盾的重要手段。因此，不同地区间进行排污权交易在我国具有重要意义，在太湖流域等经济发达地区收效尤其明显。