美缝剂TVOC释放量与释放规律的测试与分析

提出了环境舱法测试美缝剂总挥发性有机化合物(TVOC)释放量的方法,对市场常见的美缝剂产品的TVOC进行了测试,并研究了美缝剂的TVOC释放规律和主要污染物.同时对美缝剂的甲醛释放量进行了测试.通过对16种环氧树脂美缝剂产品的数据分析显示,美缝剂产品的甲醛释放量风险较低;75%的产品在第7天的TVOC释放量可达到500μg·m^-3以下.但个别产品在28 d时仍有明显的VOC释放,显示其具有长期缓慢释放的特点.美缝剂释放的主要污染物为苯甲醛与苯甲醇,个别产品检出有甲苯和邻苯二甲酸酯类物质.     

Disinfection byproducts in drinking water and regulatory compliance: A critical review

Disinfection by-products (DBPs) are regulated in drinking water in a number of countries. This critical review focuses on the issues associated with DBP regulatory compliance, including methods for DBP analysis, occurrence levels, the regulation comparison among various countries, DBP compliance strategies, and emerging DBPs. The regulation comparison between China and the United States (US) indicated that the DBP regulations in China are more stringent based on the number of regulated compounds and maximum levels. The comparison assessment using the Information Collection Rule (ICR) database indicated that the compliance rate of 500 large US water plants under the China regulations is much lower than that under the US regulations (e.g. 62.2% versus 89.6% for total trihalomethanes). Precursor removal and alternative disinfectants are common practices for DBP regulatory compliance. DBP removal after formation, including air stripping for trihalomethane removal and biodegradation for haloacetic acid removal, have gained more acceptance in DBP control. Formation of emerging DBPs, including iodinated DBPs and nitrogenous DBPs, is one of unintended consequences of precursor removal and alternative disinfection. At much lower levels than carbonaceous DBPs, however, emerging DBPs have posed higher health risks.     

Interspecific association among main plant species in the unstable slope with high-frequency debris flow北大核心CSCD

To determine the characteristics of vegetation community structure and the relationship between species in the frequent watersheds of debris flow in fragile ecological environments, based on sample survey and 2 × 2 joint table techniques, we used analysis of variance test, χ2 test, Jaccard index, Pearson correlation coefficient, and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient test to study the main plant species correlations in the stable zone, instable zone, and deposit zone of the unstable slope. The analysis of variance test showed that all 45 species pairs had a significant negative correlation in the stable zone and instable zone, whereas there was no significant negative correlation in the deposit zone, which showed that the species had an independent distribution trend. The results from the different tests showed that there were 1 pair, 4 pairs, and 4 pairs from the stable zone, instable zone, and deposit zone, respectively, which had significant interspecific association under the χ2 test and the ratios of positive correlation pairs to negative correlation pairs were 0.55, 0.67, and 0.67 in the stable zone, instable zone, and deposit zone, respectively. There were 8 pairs, 5 pairs, and 5 pairs from the stable zone, instable zone, and deposit zone, respectively, which had significant interspecific association from the Pearson correlation analysis test, and the ratios of positive correlation pairs to negative correlation pairs were 0.36, 0.45, and 0.45 in the stable zone, instable zone, and deposit zone, respectively. There were 10 pairs, 6 pairs, and 9 pairs from the stable zone, instable zone, and deposit zone, respectively, which had significant interspecific association from the Spearman's rank correlation analysis test and the ratios of positive correlation pairs to negative correlation pairs were 0.5, 0.55, and 0.6 in the stable zone, instable zone, and deposit zone, respectively. The three test results showed general similarities but there were some differences. Most species pairs did not reach a significant level in the three zones and the number of negatively related species was more than the number of positively related species. In brief, this loose interspecific relationship indicates that the entire plant community was not stable, and the interspecific relationships among species are susceptible to environmental interference in the ecologically fragile areas of the debris flow basin. Therefore, rational selection and configuration of species should be applied to promote community structure development and ecological environmental improvement in vegetation restoration process areas with high-frequency debris flow. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.     

地铁施工风险应急管理研究

针对近年来地铁施工事故频发,难以快速、有针对性地进行应急处置的问题,通过对近年来地铁施工事故案例的统计,分析导致地铁施工事故的相关因素,用Protege软件对以往地铁施工事故应急案例建立知识本体模型。通过目标案例与本体库中的源案例进行相似度计算与匹配,检索出案例库中相似度超过阈值的源案例,然后再对比筛选后的源案例与目标案例之间的关键属性相似度,从而决定进行规则推理或直接参考该案例的应急措施,以此提高应急处置的速度与针对性。     

基于危化品事故案例的决策规则提取算法研究*

为充分解析文本形式的危化品事故案例,探讨事故类型与大量事故致因间的因果关联,从化工行业入手,通过扎根理论对175起危化品事故案例进行因素提取,共确定5个子系统、19个因素、80个子因素,提出基于事故生命周期的事故致因框架;在此基础上,提出改进的Gra Apriori算法,以解决经典的Apriori无法考虑属性类别关系的问题,最终获得14个以事故类型为决策属性的规则。结果表明:这些规则从不同事故阶段细致地剖析了危化品事故所遵循的规律,重现事故的演变过程,为危化品事故风险管理提供准确可靠的预防策略和决策支持。     

Estimating dyad association probability under imperfect and heterogeneous detection

In animal behaviour studies, association indices estimate the proportion of time two individuals (i.e. a dyad) spend in association. In terms of dyads, all association indices can be interpreted as estimators of the probability that a dyad is associated. However, traditional indices rely on the assumptions that the probability to detect a particular individual (p) is either approximately one and/or homogeneous between associated and not associated individuals. Based on marked individuals we develop a likelihood based model to estimate the probability a dyad is associated (ψ) accounting for p < 1 and possibly varying between associated and not associated individuals. The proposed likelihood based model allows for both individual and dyadic missing observations. In addition, the model can easily be extended to incorporate covariate information for modeling p and ψ. A simulation study showed that the likelihood based model approach yield reasonably unbiased estimates, even for low and heterogeneous individual detection probabilities, while, in contrast, traditional indices showed moderate to strong biases. The application of the proposed approach is illustrated using a real data set collected from a population of Commerson's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus commersonii) in Patagonia Argentina. Finally, we discuss possible extensions of the proposed model and its applicability in animal behaviour and ecological studies.     

FUZZY ITERATION METHODOLOGY FOR RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Reservoir flood control is operated in real time so finding the optimal solution is unnecessary since it may not be practical. The key to reservoir flood control operation is quickly generating some feasible and effective alternatives and then selecting one among them. A fuzzy iteration methodology, which gives the objective weight and the relative membership degree of alternatives at the same time, is presented. Since the weight and relative membership degree are directly acquired from the recommended alternatives provided by decision makers, the results are more reasonable and realistic. Besides, the difficulty in giving weights is also avoided. With the aid of a robust and flexible decision support system, the effectiveness of decision making can be improved.     

A model of Cellular Automata for the spatial and temporal analysis of Citrus Sudden Death with the fuzzy parameter

Citrus Sudden Death (CSD) is a disease that has affected sweet orange trees grafted on Rangpur lime in the south of Minas Gerais state and in the north of São Paulo state (Brazil). This is a worrying characteristic because the Rangpur lime responds to 85% of the Brazilian citrus rootstocks. This disease is believed to be caused by a virus transmitted by aphids (vector) of the citrus. In this work, we have adopted the Cellular Automata model (CA) to study the temporal evolution of the disease. We take into account the effect of the wind in the space covered by the aphid. To establish the relationship between the space covered by the aphid and the intensity of the wind, we have adopted the rule-based fuzzy system. Simulations were performed and compared to real data. Through the use of the mean absolute error (MAE) method, it was possible to verify a 70% of similarity between our model of data and the real one.     

Anti-predation behaviour of red colobus monkeys in the presence of chimpanzees

Predator-prey interactions are usually regarded as evolutionary “arms races”, but evidence is still scarce. We examined whether the anti-predation strategies of red colobus monkeys (Procolobus badius) are adapted to the hunting strategies of chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) in the Taï National Park, Ivory Coast. Taï chimpanzees search for red colobus groups, approach them silently and hunt co-operatively. Our playback experiments and observations of natural encounters revealed that red colobus hid higher up the trees in positions where exposure to the forest floor is minimal and became silent, when chimpanzees were close. They moved away silently through the canopy, when chimpanzees were still at some distance. However, if a group of diana monkeys was nearby in the latter situation, red colobus sought their presence even if they had to move towards the chimpanzees. Chimpanzees refrained from hunting associated red colobus groups, probably because diana monkeys are excellent sentinels for predators approaching over the forest floor. Thus several elements of both the predator's and the prey's strategies correspond to each other. Finally, we compared the interactions between the two species in Taï and in Gombe, Tanzania. We suggest that the difference in size ratio between the two species at the two sites and adaptation of hunting techniques and of escape modes to different forest structures can explain why Gombe red colobus attack chimpanzees while Taï red colobus try to escape. We conclude that predator-prey interactions can indeed lead to evolutionary arms races, with the specific form of co-adaptations depending on environmental factors.     

四川省乐至县红层地下水分布富集规律及资源开发初探

通过对乐至县红层地下水形成的地质环境、水文地质特征及地下水富集规律的分析,初步总结了乐至县红层区地下水资源的开发利用模式,并提出了一些开采地下水的保护措施。