加速腐蚀当量加速关系研究方法综述

为了进一步研究当量加速关系,归纳了现有腐蚀损伤当量化的研究方法,详细介绍了基于电化学原理、物理参量和力学损伤的当量折算法,讨论了各种方法的优劣和所适用范围。基于电化学原理的当量加速关系研究方法适合用于制定飞机金属结构加速试验环境谱,以物理参量为基准的当量折算法适用于建立疲劳关键部位、腐蚀关键部位的涂层及金属基体等各种加速试验环境谱的当量加速关系,力学损伤对比法适合用于结构疲劳关键部位。最后得出针对不同材料、不同部位应该采用不同的当量加速关系的结论。     

基于相关性分析的PCBA热力学模型修正

目的精确且高效地对印制电路板组件热力学模型进行修正。方法采用基于拉丁超立方抽样试验设计和Speraman等级相关系数计算公式的相关性分析方法,找出电子产品热仿真试验中对元器件表面温度值影响较大的输入参数,然后进一步分析得出输入与输出之间的函数关系。在此基础上给出印制电路板组件(PCBA)热力学模型修正的一般方法流程。最后利用该方法对某航空电子产品中一块PCBA的热力学模型进行修正。结果修正结果较精确且只调用2次有限元软件。结论该热模型修正方法具有较高的精确性和高效性,可推广用于工程实践。     

郁江、黔江和浔江广西桂平段水质变化趋势分析

根据2003-2012年水质监测资料,采用秩相关系数法对郁江、黔江和浔江广西桂平段水质变化趋势进行分析。结果表明,黔江和浔江水质呈明显好转趋势;郁江水质呈好转趋势,但不明显。提出了继续加强水污染防治工作的建议。     

大连星海地区环境空气中挥发性有机物的臭氧生成潜势研究

以该实验的观测资料为基础,通过数据分析表明,对大连星海地区OH自由基消耗的主要环境VOCs组分是烯烃类物质,对O3生成潜势贡献最高的环境VOCs组分是芳香烃类物质;综合LiOH及OFP值评价,识别影响大连星海地区O3生成的关键环境VOCs反应活性物种为丙烯、甲苯、间对二甲苯等物质。     

基于距离相关系数和支持向量机回归的PM2.5浓度滚动统计预报方案

针对目前空气质量统计预报方法存在的主要缺陷,本文提出了距离相关系数和支持向量机回归相结合的统计预报方案DC-SVR.利用淮安市2013年1—12月PM_(2.5)观测资料和常规气象观测资料,首先在选入预报当日气象要素的基础上,增加选取前期污染物和气象要素作为预报因子,再采用距离相关系数分季节从预报因子中筛选出重要预报因子,最后采用支持向量机回归对PM_(2.5)浓度值进行逐日滚动统计预报.研究发现,淮安地区气温和气压对PM_(2.5)的距离相关性要高于其他气象要素,夏秋季PM_(2.5)与气象要素的距离相关性较春冬季好.基于距离相关系数和支持向量机回归建立DC-SVR模型,PM_(2.5)的试预报值和实测值的全年相关系数高达0.76,平均偏差仅为1.13μg·m~(-3),平均绝对误差为23.47μg·m~(-3).通过与支持向量机回归、人工神经网络的统计预报效果对比,DC-SVR模型有效降低预报因子维数且能自适应选取最佳参数,预报精度显著优于其他3种统计预报方案,可为业务化预报提供参考.     

Plant/soil concentration ratios for paired field and garden crops, with emphasis on iodine and the role of soil adhesion

In the effort to predict the risks associated with contaminated soils, considerable reliance is placed on plant/soil concentration ratio (CR) values measured at sites other than the contaminated site. This inevitably results in the need to extrapolate among the many soil and plant types. There are few studies that compare CR among plant types that encompass both field and garden crops. Here, CRs for 40 elements were measured for 25 crops from farm and garden sites chosen so the grain crops were in close proximity to the gardens. Special emphasis was placed on iodine (I) because data for this element are sparse. For many elements, there were consistent trends among CRs for the various crop types, with leafy crops > root crops ≥ fruit crops ≈ seed crops. Exceptions included CR values for As, K, Se and Zn which were highest in the seed crops. The correlation of CRs from one plant type to another was evident only when there was a wide range in soil concentrations. In comparing CRs between crop types, it became apparent that the relationships differed for the rare earth elements (REE), which also had very low CR values. The CRs for root and leafy crops of REE converged to a minimum value. This was attributed to soil adhesion, despite the samples being washed, and the average soil adhesion for root crops was 500 mg soil kg⁻¹ dry plant and for leafy crops was 5 g kg⁻¹. Across elements, the log CR was negatively correlated with log Kd (the soil solid/liquid partition coefficient), as expected. Although, this correlation is expected, measures of correlation coefficients suitable for stochastic risk assessment are not frequently reported. The results suggest that r ≈ −0.7 would be appropriate for risk assessment.     

Use of co-combustion bottom ash to design an acoustic absorbing material for highway noise barriers

The present study aims to determine and evaluate the applicability of a new product consisting of coal bottom ash mixed with Portland cement in the application of highway noise barriers. In order to effectively recycle the bottom ash, the influence of the grain particle size of bottom ash, the thickness of the panel and the combination of different layers with various particle sizes have been studied, as well as some environmental properties including leachability (EN-12457-4, NEN-7345) and radioactivity tests. Based on the obtained results, the acoustic properties of the final composite material were similar or even better than those found in porous concrete used for the same application. According to this study, the material produced presented no environmental risk.     

IS IT REALISTIC TO DEFINE A 100-YEAR DROUGHT FOR WATER MANAGEMENT?1

ABSTRACT: The concept of recurrence interval has been used for years in engineering designs. Can the same concept be applied to the drought analysis? This paper uses the plotting position method to define drought of various recurrence intervals based on stream-flow data. The method of truncation level was applied to the same data to examine the defined drought. Based on the method of truncation level, drought duration and its corresponding flow deficit were investigated. Eighteen flow gage stations from the Scioto River Basin in Ohio were selected for the study. The results show that flows of 100-year droughts using the plotting position method are practically nil. On the other hand, flows of droughts using the truncation method are gradually decreasing with an increase in truncation level, where flows of 95 percent are approximately equal to those of two-year droughts defined by the plotting position. It is also shown that there is a strung correlation between drought duration and deficit.     

A NEW LOOK AT FLOOD RISK DETERMINATION1

ABSTRACT: The probability distributions of annual peak flows used in flood risk analysis quantify the risk that a design flood will be exceeded. But the parameters of these distributions are themselves to a degree uncertain and this uncertainty increases the risk that the flood protection provided will in fact prove to be inadequate. The increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is small when a fairly long record of data is available and the annual flood peaks are serially independent, which is the standard assumption in flood frequency analysis. But standard tests for serial independence are insensitive to the type of grouping of high and low values in a time series, which is measured by the Hurst coefficient. This grouping increases the parameter uncertainty considerably. A study of 49 annual peak flow series for Canadian rivers shows that many have a high Hurst coefficient. The corresponding increase in flood risk due to parameter uncertainty is shown to be substantial even for rivers with a long record, and therefore should not be neglected. The paper presents a method of rationally combining parameter uncertainty due to serial correlation, and the stochastic variability of peak flows in a single risk assessment. In addition, a relatively simple time series model that is capable of reproducing the observed serial correlation of flood peaks is presented.     

贵州省自然灾害区域分异规律及分析方法研究

贵州省自然灾害严重，且种类多，区域差异明显。为了分析自然灾害区域分异规律，本文提出了灾害模数、灾害区域差异系数等概念，编制了贵州省灾害等级图。