土地承载力研究范式的变迁、分化及其综论

基于Kuhn范式理论,将现有土地承载力研究成果显化、梳理为4种主要研究范式,即基于限制因子的研究范式、基于多因素综合的研究范式、基于参照区的研究范式、基于生态足迹的研究范式。以范式应用的时代背景、空间尺度为着眼点,对各类范式进行综合比较,结果显示：基于限制因子的土地承载力研究范式起源最早、发展最为成熟,基于多因素综合、基于参照区、基于生态足迹的3种研究范式,均是以前者为基础,按照不同的方向分化而成;范式分化的原因在于时空条件的变化所引致的亟需解释、解决的现实问题的变化。范式本身并无优劣之分,但有其独特的适应性：基于限制因子、基于生态足迹的两种研究范式适用于全球及国家等大尺度土地承载力问题,且发展较为成熟,其成果具有较强的理论和实践指导意义;基于多因素综合及基于参照区的两种研究范式适用于市县等中小尺度,但其研究较为薄弱,所得的承载力分值、承载力相对值对区域土地管理实践的指导价值有限。当前,市县等中小尺度土地承载力研究亟需加强,其指导实践的有效性与可操作性亟待大幅度提高。     

基于空间适宜性评价和人口承载力的贵溪市中心城区城市开发边界的划定

城市开发边界的划定能够合理引导城市空间的有序发展,控制其无序蔓延。论文以典型的资源型城市贵溪市为研究区,从空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模以及城市总体规划和土地利用总体规划（简称“两规”）衔接等方面探索有效的城市开发边界划定方法。空间适宜性评价综合考虑自然、空间可达性和生态条件,运用聚类分析法确定区域内不宜作为开发建设的生态底线区域和适宜建设开发区域的高低等级,以此确定城市开发边界的发展方向。通过灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测研究区2020年人口总量,并基于土地资源和水资源承载力验证当地所能容纳的最大人口总量,同时确定城市规模和划定城市开发边界。以空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模预测、两规衔接和空间形态控制等方法倒逼缩减建设用地,从而划定城市发展的刚性和弹性增长边界。     

我国饲料粮区域产消平衡特征及政策启示

我国饲料粮消耗量大且增长迅速,已经成为我国粮食安全的首要影响因素,准确判断我国饲料粮的区域产消平衡特征对农业相关政策的制订具有重要的现实意义。论文在详细分析各省区不同畜牧产品粮食转化系数的基础上,对区域饲料粮的产消平衡状态及其原因进行了研究。结果显示：1）近年来我国饲料粮消费量快速上升,由2000年的21 730万t增长到2015年的30 549万t,15 a间增长了8 819万t。2）2015年生猪饲料粮消耗量最大,比例达到了44.4%,占据了我国饲料消耗总量的半壁江山。其次为禽蛋与禽肉消耗,消费占比分别为15.8%与12.7%;牛肉、羊肉、牛奶与水产品的饲料粮消费量比例均在5%~9%之间。3）2015年全国饲料粮总计短缺4 276万t,区域上呈现“北余南缺”的格局,东北黑龙江、吉林、内蒙古三省（区）成为我国最重要的饲料粮供应区域。从粮食转换系数与饲养结构来看,“北粮南运”现象是粮食资源的合理配置。论文提出三点政策建议：1）转变消费结构,增加牛肉与牛奶的消费量;2）推动“以粮为纲”向“粮经饲”三元种植结构转变;3）充分利用国际市场,从全球视角保护粮食安全。     

Mercury flows in large-scale gold production and implications for Hg pollution control

Large-scale gold production(LSGP) is one of the five convention-related atmospheric mercury(Hg) emission sources in the Minamata Convention on Mercury. However, field experiments on Hg flows of the whole process of LSGP are limited. To identify the atmospheric Hg emission points and understand Hg emission characteristics of LSGP, Hg flows in two gold smelters were studied. Overall atmospheric Hg emissions accounted for 10%–17% of total Hg outputs and the Hg emission factors for all processes were 7.6–9.6 kg/ton. There were three dominant atmospheric Hg emission points in the studied gold smelters, including the exhaust gas of the roasting process, exhaust gas from the environmental fog collection stack and exhaust gas from the converter of the refining process. Atmospheric Hg emissions from the roasting process only accounted for 16%–29% of total emissions and the rest were emitted from the refining process. The overall Hg speciation profile(gaseous elemental Hg/gaseous oxidized Hg/particulate-bound Hg) for LSGP was 34.1/57.1/8.8. The dominant Hg output byproducts included waste acid, sulfuric acid and cyanide leaching residue. Total Hg outputs from these three byproducts were 80% in smelter A and 84% in smelter B. Our study indicated that previous atmospheric Hg emissions from large-scale gold production might have been overestimated.Hg emission control in LSGP is not especially urgent in China compared to other significant emission sources(e.g., cement plants). Instead, LSGP is a potential Hg release source due to the high Hg output proportions to acid and sludge.     

Economic development and environmental protection: an ecological economics perspective

This paper argues on both theoretical and empirical grounds that, beyond a certain point, there is an unavoidable conflictbetween economic development (generally taken to mean 'materialeconomic growth') and environmental protection. Think for a moment of natural forests, grasslands, marine estuaries, salt marshes, and coral reefs; and of arable soils, aquifers, mineraldeposits, petroleum, and coal. These are all forms of 'natural capital' that represent highly-ordered self-producing ecosystemsor rich accumulations of energy/matter with high use potential (low entropy). Now contemplate despoiled landscapes, eroding farmlands, depleted fisheries, anthropogenic greenhouse gases,acid rain, poisonous mine tailings and toxic synthetic compounds.These all represent disordered systems or degraded forms of energy and matter with little use potential (high entropy). The main thing connecting these two states is human economic activity. Ecological economics interprets the environment-economyrelationship in terms of the second law of thermodynamics. The second law sees economic activity as a dissipative process. Fromthis perspective, the production of economic goods andservices invariably requires the consumption of available energy and matter. To grow and develop, the economynecessarily 'feeds' on sources of high-quality energy/matter first produced by nature. This tends to disorder and homogenizethe ecosphere, The ascendance of humankind has consistently been accompanied by an accelerating rate of ecological degradation, particularly biodiversity loss, the simplificationof natural systems and pollution. In short, contemporary political rhetoric to the contrary, the prevailing growth-oriented global development paradigm is fundamentally incompatible with long-term ecological and social sustainability. Unsustainability is not a technical nor economic problem as usually conceived, but rather a state of systemic incompatibilitybetween a economy that is a fully-contained, growing, dependent sub-system of a non-growing ecosphere. Potential solutions fly inthe face of contemporary development trends and cultural values.     

Production,respiration and net ecosystem metabolism in U.S. estuaries

Primary production, respiration, and net ecosystem metabolism (NEM) are useful indicators of ecosystem level trophic conditions within estuaries. In this study, dissolved oxygen data collected every half hour between January 1996 to December 1998 by the National Estuarine Research Reserve System Wide Monitoring Program were used to calculate primary production, respiration, and net ecosystem metabolism. Data from two sites at each of 14 Reserves were analyzed. On average, three quarters of the data available could be used to calculate metabolic rates. Data from two of the Reserves were used to evaluate the assumption of homogeneity of water masses moving past the oxygen sensor. Temperature was the single most important factor controlling metabolic rates at individual sites, although salinity was also important at about half the sites. On an annual basis, respiration exceeded gross primary production demonstrating that all but 4 of the 28 sites were heterotrophic.     

2017年上半年北京市及周边地区空气质量特征分析

依托北京市、廊坊市和保定市高密度的地面空气质量监测、气象要素监测以及PM_2.5化学组分监测和后向轨迹分析等手段，对2017年上半年三地的空气质量进行分析。研究发现：三地中北京市空气质量较好，保定市较差。分污染物来看，保定市SO₂浓度水平明显高于廊坊市和北京市，颗粒物PM₁₀和PM_2.5也呈现保定市最高、北京市最低的规律。从污染物日变化来看，CO、SO₂、NO₂、PM₁₀和PM_2.5呈双峰型分布，O₃呈单峰型分布。从区域整体分布规律来看，PM_2.5和SO₂呈现明显的"南高北低"特征。PM_2.5化学组分分析结果表明：1—4月燃煤对该区域空气质量的影响较大，5—6月机动车排放的影响更为凸显。后向轨迹分析结果表明：在2017年上半年到达北京市的气流中有24%来自于北京市南部，且这些气流多为低空传输，表明区域传输对于北京市空气质量具有一定的影响。     

生物制氢技术的研究进展与应用前景

氢气作为一种清洁的、可更新的能源，正被进一步发展与利用。生物制氢技术与其他制氢方法相比，具有无污染、成本低、可再生等优点，受到广泛的关注。在综述了目前国内外生物制氢技术各个方面的研究进展和成果的基础上，详细描述前景。了光合产氢细菌及厌氧发酵产氢细菌等主要产氢生物的产氢机制，分析了面临的问题，论述了研究的发展方向和应用     

土壤环境容量数学模型——Ⅰ.土壤污染动力学模型

应用物质平衡原理,导出模拟土壤污染过程的动力学方程.可用于估算土壤环境容量、分析土壤污染动态和预测土壤超容年限.以测定残留率为基础的一类模型是本文提出的模型的一个特例.     

我国土地资源利用的几个战略问题

我国人均资源占有量远低于世界水平,资源供应日益紧缺,并将成为经济发展的一个重要的约束条件。从土地资源的潜力来看,我国土地理论的最高人口承载量可能是15—16亿人,并在相当长的时期内将处于临界状态。关键在于控制人口的增长和在农业方面采取超常规的增产措施,特别是大幅度增加农业投入。我国土地生产潜力东部大于西部,粮食生产的重点应放在中部地带。20亿亩耕地是我国国土资源的精华所在,种植业的主攻方向应放在中产田,并大力加强我国九片商品粮基地的建设。林业建设的战略重点应尽快转向山区。牧业应发展饲料生产,开辟新的饲料基地。从总体看,应强调发展资源节约型的农业,以内涵挖潜为主,向生产的深度和广度进军。