Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

长江三峡柑桔的冻害和热害（二）

本文从柑桔冻害和热害的危害因子和指标等级划分的研究和选取入手,着重探讨了长江三峡地区(湖北境内)两害显著的时空变化特征、差异与关联性及对柑桔生产的影响;揭示了80年代以来冬暖春热的重大气候变化是使两害向“两极分化”的根本原因;讨论了三峡水利工程对两害时空格局的可能调整及减灾原理;最后提出了可能的对策。     

治污投资的政府最优政策博弈

外部性的存在及制造商治污投资动机不足要求政府对制造商的行为进行相应的规制，政府在制造商的治污投资行为中主要的作用是通过各种措施使得制造裔有动机地去自觉地进行有效的治污投资;政府的主要控制手段包括直接管制及借助市场激励，政府制定环境管理策略的关键因素是“惩罚的力度与激励的强度”。基于社会福利最大化的角度；从制造商的治污投资行为出发研究政府制定环境管理规制的策略，通过一个三阶段的博弈模型分析福利增进量、洽污成本与治污效果等三个因素对“惩罚力度与激励强度”的影响。     

水资源条件约束下西北农村地区生态经济发展对策

西北地区生态脆弱，社会经济发展相对落后。农业在全区经济中占有重要的地位，所以农村地区可持续发展对于实现西北地区可持续发展具有重要意义。通过分析西北地区水资源现状及特点和本区农村社会、经济发展现状，认为西北地区水资源严重缺乏，干旱化趋势将长期存在；农业结构不合理，乡镇工业污染严重、城镇化进程缓慢是制约本区农村地区可持续发展的主要因素。在此基础上，提出了在水资源严重缺乏条件下西北农村地区实现生态经济可持续发展的具体对策：积极调整农业结构，大力发展节水农业和推进农业产业化；加强小城镇社区生态环境基础设施建设，实施城镇化发展战略和乡镇企业可持续发展；建设生态型的小城镇，建立农村地区新型生态能源结构，加强小流域综合治理是改善农村生态环境和实现农村地区生态经济可持续发展的有效途径。     

湖北省近期土地利用变化的遥感分析

土地利用，覆盖变化研究是全球变化研究的前沿和热点之一。采用遥感、GIS一体化技术．利用1989～1990年和1999～2000年获取的陆地资源卫星图像，建立了湖北省近10年来两个不同时期的同比例尺土地利用动态变化数据库，并对变化的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明，耕地减少了0．68％，林地减少了0．18％，各类建设用地总计增加了。7．92％．水域面积增加的幅度为3．01％。土地利用与土地覆盖变化的转型主要发生于上述4类之中．尤其是耕地与水域相互之间的转变比较频繁。动态度计算表明，土地利用变化最快的区域均处于大中城市及其周边地区；江汉平原、鄂东的大部分地区及鄂西的宜昌．土地利用变化较快；鄂西山区绝大部分、大别山区部分县及鄂东南幕阜山区的通山县，土地利用变化不大。     

2010年上海世博会与长江三角洲都市圈的联动发展

本文在分析世界博览会发展过程的基础上，阐述了2010年上海世博会对上海乃至长江三角洲都市圈联动发展的机遇和挑战，并提出了长江三角洲都市圈空间整合与联动发展的战略措施。     

Comparative Analysis of Ecophysiological Characteristics of Stephanodiscus hantzschii Grun. in the Periods of Its Bloom in Recreational Water Bodies

In the periods of summer and autumn bloom of the Stephanodiscus hantzschii Crun. in recreational water bodies, studies on the vertical distribution of chlorophyll a, its contents per unit biomass, efficiency in using photosynthetically active radiation (E_PhAR), and assimilative activity of microalgae were performed. The results confirmed the existence of two ecophysiological forms of St. hantzschii and provided evidence that both forms are typically autotrophic and can efficiently use low-intensity PhAR for photosynthesis.     

Vulnerability assessment of sea-level rise in Viti Levu, Fiji Islands

Fiji is expected to come under increasing pressure and risk from various threats resulting from climate change and sea-level rise (SLR). Fiji consists of 332 islands and thus has a predominant and large coastline. Viti Levu is the largest and most important of the islands, harboring Fiji’s capital city and most of the major towns concentrated around its coast. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the extent of possible sea-level rise using GIS, and to identify high-risk locations. Potential sea level rise was shown graphically as an output to determine where inundation or flooding would take place. This analysis allowed important areas facing risk to be highlighted for future action. Flooding/inundation can be classified into two kinds: ‘permanent inundation’, which is the result of sea-level rise with tide; and ‘temporary flooding’, also including occasional storm surge events. The inundated area was displayed under different projections and quantified. The results produced output maps showing the distribution of inundation/flooding around the island of Viti Levu as well as the extent of flooding. Six scenarios for sea-level rise were used (0.09, 0.18, 0.48, 0.50, 0.59, 0.88 m). Six scenarios for storm surge were used with return intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years. High risk and priority locations are identified as Fiji’s capital Suva, the major tourist center and arrival port of Nadi, and Fiji’s second city Lautoka. Future action, adaptation and response strategies in these identified locations must occur to reduce risk from climate change.     

Biological Activity in a Heavily Organohalogen-Contaminated River Sediment (8 pp)

Background, Aims and Scope Sediments of the Spittelwasser creek are highly polluted with organic compounds and heavy metals due to the discharge of untreated waste waters from the industrial region of Bitterfeld-Wolfen, Germany over the course of more than one century. However, relatively few data have been published about the chloroorganic contamination of the sediment. This paper reports on the content of different (chloro)organic compounds with special emphasis on polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F), and chlorobenzenes. Existing concepts for the remediation of Spittelwasser sediment include the investigation of natural attenuation processes, which largely depend on the presence of an intact microbial food web. In order to gain more insight in terms of biological activity, we analyzed the capacity of sediment microflora to degrade organic matter by measuring the activities of extracellular hydrolytic enzymes involved in the biogeochemical cycling of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur. Furthermore, the detection of physiologically active bacteria in the sediment, particularly of those known for their capability to reductively dehalogenate organochlorine compounds, illustrates the potential for intrinsic bioremediation processes. Methods PCDD/F and chlorobenzenes were analyzed by gas chromatography(GC)/mass spectrometry and GC/flame ionization detection, respectively. The activities of hydrolytic enzymes were determined from freshly sampled sediment layers using 4-methylumbelliferyl (MUF) or 7-amino-4-methylcoumarin-conjugated model compounds and kinetic fluorescence measurements. Physiologically active bacteria from different sediment layers were microscopically visualized by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Specific bacteria were identified by 16S rRNA gene amplification and sequencing. Results and Discussion The PCDD/F congener profile was dominated by dibenzofurans. In addition, the presence of specific tetra and pentachlorinated dibenzofurans supported the assumption that extensive magnesium production was one possible source for the high contamination. A range of other chloroorganic compounds, including several isomers of chlorobenzenes, hexachlorocyclohexane and 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis (p-chloro-phenyl)ethane (DDT), was present in the sediment. Activities of extracellular hydrolytic enzymes showed a strong decrease in those sediment layers that were characterized by high contents of absorbable organic halogen (AOX), indicating disturbed organic matter decay. Interestingly, an abnormal increase of cellulolytic enzyme activities below the organochlorine-rich layers was observed, possibly caused by residual cellulose from discharges of sulfite pulping wastes. FISH revealed physiologically active bacteria in most sediment layers from the surface down to the depth of about 60 cm, including members of Desulfitobacterium (D.) and Sulfurospirillum. The presence of D. dehalogenans was confirmed by its partial 16S rRNA gene sequence. Conclusions Results of chemical sediment analyses demonstrated high loads of organochlorine compounds, particularly of PCDD/F. Several years after stopping the waste water discharge to Spittelwasser creek, this sediment remains a main source for pollution of the downstream river system by way of the ongoing mobilization of sediment during high floods. As indicated by our enzyme activity measurements, the decomposition potential for organic matter is low in organochlorine-rich sediment layers. In contrast, the comparably higher enzyme activities in less organochlorine-polluted sediment layers as well as the presence of physiologically active bacteria suggest a considerable potential for natural attenuation. Recommendations and Perspectives From our data we strongly recommend to explore the degradative capacity of sediment microorganisms and the limits for in situ activity towards specific sediment pollutants in more detail. This will give a sound basis for the integration of bioremediation approaches into general concepts to reduce the risk that permanently radiates from this highly contaminated sediment. Submission Editor: Dr. Henner Hollert (Henner.Hollert@urz.uniheidelberg.de)