On the gains of committing to inefficiency: Corruption, deforestation and low land productivity in Latin America

We present a new explanation and empirical evidence showing that rural subsidies to large farmers tend to be associated with low land productivity and excessive deforestation. We develop a lobbying model where wealthy farmers trade bribes or political contributions to government politicians in exchange for subsidies; farmers are able to tilt the terms of the bargaining game with policy makers in their favor by pre-committing to an inefficient choice of semi-fixed inputs. Government proneness to accept political contributions or bribes and its willingness to provide subsidies cause farmers to adopt inefficient modes of production as a mechanism to capture such subsidies. Our predictions are consistent with stylized facts on land use in Latin America, and suggest that subsidy schemes have been counterproductive—distorting and constraining development, and triggering excessive depletion of natural resources. We validate some of the predictions of the model through econometric analyses using a new data set for nine countries in Latin America.     

黄土高原沟坡地土地生产力评价的指标体系与评价方法

通过对渭北黄土高原地区沟坡地土壤理化性质的分析和对当地社会经济状况的调查研究,应用层次分析法对沟坡地土地自然生产力和现实生产力进行了分析和评价.在分析过程中,把当地主要造林树种根系垂直分布特征及其根系抗旱性特性纳入了分析评价体系.结果表明,嘴头村和西坡村不同树种沟坡地上刺槐(Robinia pseudoacacia)的自然生产力属于中等稍微偏上水平,而山杏(Prunus armeniacia var. ansu)、油松(Pinus tabulaeformis)和侧柏(Platycladus orientalis)的自然生产力水平则较低.两地沟坡地上的现实生产力计算结果则证明刺槐和山杏两个树种表现出了较高的水平,具有较好的发展前途;而油松和侧柏的现实生产力水平则较低,其发展推广受到了限制.群众对沟坡开发治理的态度和对开发方案的认可对沟坡开发的成功起到了重要作用.     

Survival and productivity benefits to social nesting in the sweat bee <Emphasis Type="Italic">Megalopta genalis</Emphasis> (Hymenoptera: Halictidae)

Facultatively solitary and eusocial species allow for direct tests of the benefits of group living. We used the facultatively social sweat bee Megalopta genalis to test several benefits of group living. We surveyed natural nests modified for observation in the field weekly for 5 weeks in 2003. First, we demonstrate that social and solitary nesting are alternative behaviors, rather than different points on one developmental trajectory. Next, we show that solitary nests suffered significantly higher rates of nest failure than did social nests. Nest failure apparently resulted from solitary foundress mortality and subsequent brood orphanage. Social nests had significantly higher productivity, measured as new brood cells provisioned during the study, than did solitary nests. After accounting for nest failures, per capita productivity did not change with group size. Our results support key predictions of Assured Fitness Return models, suggesting such indirect fitness benefits favor eusocial nesting in M. genalis. We compared field collections of natural nests to our observation nest data to show that without accounting for nest failures, M. genalis appear to suffer a per capita productivity decrease with increasing group size. Calculating per capita productivity from collected nests without accounting for the differential probabilities of survival across group sizes leads to an overestimate of solitary nest productivity.     

Impact of canal development on intertidal microalgal productivity: Comparative assessment of Patterson Lakes and Ralphs Bay,South East Australia

We assessed the potential impact of a proposed canal development in an estuarine sandflat at Ralphs Bay, Tasmania on intertidal microalgal productivity and species composition, by comparing it over summer and winter seasons with a well- established (30 year old) canal estate at Patterson Lakes, Victoria. Pulse amplitude modulation (PAM) fluorometry was used to generate a relative measure of photosynthetic performance, which combined with microalgal chlorophyll biomass and irradiance provides an assessment of potential primary productivity. We present a sophisticated mathematical model for calculating benthic microalgal production and the contribution to total primary production, taking into account sediment light attenuation as estimated from sediment grain size. Ralphs Bay had a total productive microalgal biomass of 44 mg chlorophyll a m⁻² which was six times higher than Patterson Lakes, while the relative productivity of Ralphs Bay was four times greater compared to Patterson Lakes where productivity was virtually absent in the subtidal zone of the canal waterway. Ralphs Bay exhibited a more or less homogeneous spatial distribution of microphytobenthos biomass but this was subject to some seasonal variation in species composition, abundance and productivity. By contrast, at Patterson Lakes biomass distribution, diversity and productivity was highly spatially variable in the canal system in both seasons. Patterson Lakes exhibited 60% lower microphytobenthos species richness than Ralphs Bay but little variation in species composition occurred between seasons in the canal estate. This suggests that the dominant diatom species in Patterson Lakes, Pinnularia yarrensis, Gyrosigma balticum and Pleurosigma salinarum, are well adapted to the disturbance regime within the canal estate. The proposed canal development at Ralphs Bay is estimated to cause a decrease in microalgal productivity by both reducing available marine substrate (66% reduction) and replacing productive intertidal phytobenthic habitat with nonproductive canal substrate. These combine to cause a decline in productivity of 92% with significant flow-on effects predicted for higher trophic levels such as migratory wading birds.     

Farmland size,chemical fertilizers,and irrigation management effects on maize and wheat yield in Mexico

ABSTRACT

Farmland size is a key factor in debates over agricultural land use, food security, agrochemical pollution, and the future of smallholder systems. This paper examines relationships between farmland size, chemical fertilizers and irrigation management, and maize and wheat yield in Mexico. We used agricultural census data to estimate the mean farmland areas and crop yields of 5.5 million farms and nine million agricultural plots in 2,455 Mexican municipalities. We also derived indices of socio-environmental and management factors to examine relationships with yield. Using multiple regression models, we found that although mean farmland area positively relates to maize and wheat yield, the relationships depend critically on the management contexts of chemical fertilizers and irrigation, which vary widely across farm size gradients. Smallholder yield gaps were associated with deficits in irrigation, rather than chemical inputs. Findings highlight the growing need for expanded irrigation access and/or water management assistance for smaller farms.     

Climatic Change, Wildfire, and Conservation

Abstract:  Climatic variability is a dominant factor affecting large wildfires in the western United States, an observation supported by palaeoecological data on charcoal in lake sediments and reconstructions from fire-scarred trees. Although current fire management focuses on fuel reductions to bring fuel loadings back to their historical ranges, at the regional scale extreme fire weather is still the dominant influence on area burned and fire severity. Current forecasting tools are limited to short-term predictions of fire weather, but increased understanding of large-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns in the Pacific Ocean (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) may improve our ability to predict climatic variability at seasonal to annual leads. Associations between these quasi-periodic patterns and fire occurrence, though evident in some regions, have been difficult to establish in others. Increased temperature in the future will likely extend fire seasons throughout the western United States, with more fires occurring earlier and later than is currently typical, and will increase the total area burned in some regions. If climatic change increases the amplitude and duration of extreme fire weather, we can expect significant changes in the distribution and abundance of dominant plant species in some ecosystems, which would thus affect habitat of some sensitive plant and animal species. Some species that are sensitive to fire may decline, whereas the distribution and abundance of species favored by fire may be enhanced. The effects of climatic change will partially depend on the extent to which resource management modifies vegetation structure and fuels.     

冬小麦生产力估算方法研究

本文在综述前人工作的基础上,对作物生产力的概念重新进行了阐述,提出作物生产力包括多层次的含义、各层次生产力代表不同的生产水平且限制因子不同,并对各层次生产力进行了定义。从大气-作物-土壤系统出发,探讨了冬小麦的生长发育及产量形成与各环境因子、能量投入之间的定量关系,采用动态模拟和统计分析相结合的方法,利用dBASEⅢ和BASIC语言,建立起了冬小麦生长发育及生产力形成的动态模拟软件,该软件可以根据不同需要对不同地区的冬小麦干物质累积、叶面积变化及土壤水分平衡进行计算,并可计算各层次的生产力。     

基于气候响应关系研究火干扰对兴安落叶松直径结构的 影响

以大兴安岭地区兴安落叶松（Larix gmelinii）为研究对象,分别选取1987年、2003年和2015年火干扰区域及其附近未受火干扰区域设置典型样地,基于树轮数据和调查数据重建历史直径结构,构建兴安落叶松树木生长与气候因子的相关关系,探讨气候变化背景下火干扰对兴安落叶松直径结构的影响。研究结果表明：（1）火干扰下兴安落叶松直径结构呈正偏,高峰态分布。中度火干扰恢复15年后则呈现负偏、峰度值下降的趋势,而重度火干扰恢复15年后仍处于正偏高峰态分布,但随后趋向负偏,低峰态分布。（2）火干扰改变了兴安落叶松直径生长与气候之间的响应关系,中度火干扰下兴安落叶松生长与上年冬季温度呈显著负相关（p＜0.05）,随着火干扰强度增加,降水的抑制作用增强,重度火干扰下兴安落叶松直径生长与当年生长季（5—8月）、上年生长季（7—9月）和上年冬季（11—12月）降水呈显著负相关关系（p＜0.05）。不同恢复期内树木生长-气候因子关系也有所差异。中度火干扰下兴安落叶松与生长季温度的关系由火干扰初期正相关转变为中期（恢复15年）负相关（p＜0.05）,与上年生长季降水的关系则转变为正相关关系（p＜0.05）;重度火干扰下兴安落叶松直径生长与上年冬季温度由恢复初期的负相关转变为后期（恢复31年）的正相关（p＜0.05）,与当年生长季降水转变为负相关（p＜0.05）。在未来气候变暖和火干扰事件增加的趋势下,兴安落叶松直径结构趋向负偏、高峰态分布。     

甘南高寒退化草地生态位特征及生产力研究

采取样方法,对玛曲县高寒中度退化草地的植物种群群落进行了研究分析,结果表明:以莎草植物(嵩草)为绝对优势种,杂类草(金莲花)为主要伴生种。非优势种垂穗披碱草、甘青青兰生态位宽度较大,分别为0.913和0.911,而绝对优势种嵩草和主要伴生种金莲花的生态位宽度较低,分别为0.906和0.641。生态位相似性比例大于0.50%的种对约占种群总对数的42.29%。生态位重叠值大于0.040的种对,约占种群总对数的20.55%。生态位宽度较大的两个种群,种对相似性比例一般较高,具有较大的生态位重叠(如种对乳白香青和毛茛0.082),而生态位窄的物种相互间生态位重叠比例较小(如种对二裂委陵菜和金莲花0.033)。高生态位宽度与低生态位宽度的种群也可能有较高的重叠值(如种对车前和毛茛0.065),反之则低。杂类草鲜草产量、地上生物量比例最高,依次为100.00 g/(m2.a)、43.37%。     

海伦地区水热耦合特征及其对大豆产量的影响

农业是受气候变化影响的主要敏感行业之一,气候变暖带来的气温升高以及降水格局的改变对农作物生产有利有弊。论文基于黑龙江海伦地区1978—2004年生长季≥10℃有效积温、降水量和统计年鉴中的大豆产量数据,以积温和降水在季节上的匹配程度作为判断水热耦合的指标,采用气候波动指数、减产风险指数作为大豆产量受气候波动影响程度的指标,研究了在生长季降水量下降和≥10℃有效积温增加的趋势下水热耦合的年际和年内变化特征及其对大豆产量的影响,并分析了偏干旱、正常和湿润年份大豆产量受气候波动影响的特征和减产风险性。结果表明,大豆气候波动指数和产量减产风险指数从大到小均依次为偏干旱年、偏湿润年和正常年,说明海伦地区受气候暖干化影响较大。