京津冀突发事件总体应急预案量化评价

应急预案是应对突发事件工作的重要抓手,加强应急预案管理已成为新时期我国各级政府应急管理工作的重要任务。为提高京津冀应急预案质量,通过构建PMC指数模型来评价该地区突发事件总体应急预案,为预案优化提供建议。选取京津冀5项代表性突发事件总体应急预案为研究样本,首先,基于对预案文本的挖掘与分析以及借鉴已有研究关于应急预案评价指标的设定,建立了包含9个一级变量和57个二级变量的评价指标体系。其次,通过测算得出各个预案的PMC指数分值,据此对每项预案进行分析与优化。结果表明,5项预案的PMC指数均值为7.89,根据评级划分标准,5项预案总体表现良好,其中2项等级为优秀,3项等级为良好。除了在事件分类分级标准、恢复与重建这两个一级变量上没有失分外,在其他一级变量上都有失分,具体可以依据二级变量在这几个方面实施优化。     

应急与日常状态下的责任配置一致性研究

针对各部门在应急与日常状态下的责任存在不一致的问题,因而导致在应急过程中无法有效进行责任转换,影响应急工作开展,借鉴遥感影像分类精度评价中常用的混淆矩阵方法,通过确定标准任务、应急责任矩阵、日常相关责任、责任一致性原则等步骤,建立了应急预案混淆矩阵。笔者以2007年《××市雪天道路交通保障应急预案》为例,对应急预案在应急与日常状态下的责任一致性进行了分析。结果表明,各部门以及应急预案整体的混淆矩阵,能够直观而定性地反映应急预案的责任一致性;对混淆矩阵责任一致性指数p的计算,可进一步定量化地评价应急预案。定性与定量相结合的方法是全面分析和评价应急预案所必需的手段,同时可以为应急预案的责任配置调整提供依据。     

Vested Interest theory and disaster preparedness

Three studies were designed to extend a combination of vested interest theory (VI) and the extended parallel process model of fear appeals (EPPM) to provide formative research for creating more effective disaster preparedness social action campaigns. The aim was to develop an effective VI scale for assessing individual awareness and ‘vestedness’ relevant to disaster preparedness. Typical preparedness behaviours are discussed with emphasis on earthquakes and tornados in particular. Brief overviews of VI and the EPPM are offered, and findings are presented from three studies (one dealing with earthquakes, and two with tornados) conducted to determine the factor structure of the key VI components involved, and to develop and test subscales derived from the two theories. The paper finishes with a discussion of future research needs and suggestions on how the new subscales may be applied in the design and execution of more effective disaster preparedness campaigns.     

大型石化项目环境监理实践及工作方法探讨

基于某大型石化项目的环境监理实践,从环境监理方案及实施细则的编制、设计阶段环境监理、施工阶段环境监理3个方面阐述此类项目环境监理的要点及工作方法。设计阶段的主要工作是对环保设计文件、设计图纸及基础设计资料等材料的审查,审查的重点是项目的平面布置、生产规模、工艺路线、污染物特征及各污染物控制节点、环保治理设施的处理工艺及规模等与环评报告及批复的相符性。施工阶段环境监理的工作重点是施工单位环境管理、施工期环保达标监理、隐蔽工程监理、环境风险防范措施监理、环保设施符合性核查、批建相符性核查等几方面。并简要分析了环境监理成果的体现方式。     

Validity and consistency assessment of accident analysis methods in the petroleum industry

Background. Accident analysis is the main aspect of accident investigation. It includes the method of connecting different causes in a procedural way. Therefore, it is important to use valid and reliable methods for the investigation of different causal factors of accidents, especially the noteworthy ones. Objective. This study aimed to prominently assess the accuracy (sensitivity index [SI]) and consistency of the six most commonly used accident analysis methods in the petroleum industry. Methods. In order to evaluate the methods of accident analysis, two real case studies (process safety and personal accident) from the petroleum industry were analyzed by 10 assessors. The accuracy and consistency of these methods were then evaluated. The assessors were trained in the workshop of accident analysis methods. Results. The systematic cause analysis technique and bowtie methods gained the greatest SI scores for both personal and process safety accidents, respectively. The best average results of the consistency in a single method (based on 10 independent assessors) were in the region of 70%. Conclusion. This study confirmed that the application of methods with pre-defined causes and a logic tree could enhance the sensitivity and consistency of accident analysis.     

用层次分析法综合评价建设项目的环境影响

根据环境系统的组成,结合项目情况及选择评价指标的基本原则选出主要的影响因素。利用层次分析法确定各因素的权重,通过实际监测数据分析和相关的调查资料得出各因素的取值。根据各因子的权重和取值计算出工程前后的环境质量综合值,并由此判断工程兴建对环境质量的影响。     

层次分析法在苏南城区河道整治工程选择中的运用

在治理环境污染问题时,经常要从多个污染治理方案中选择最佳的方案,方案选择的合理与否,直接影响到工程的经济性和技术性。以苏南地区常州市老城区主要河道北市河为例,根据该河道的实际情况和环境问题,采用层次分析法对该河道整治工程方案进行了优化选择,以排污口整治、生态修复、污水接管、充氧曝气作为备选方案构建了递阶层次结构模型,在标度选择上采用了指数标度e0/5-e8/5,根据实际需要将北市河分为6个区间段,重点选取了金谷庄园桥到博爱桥区间段,分别进行了判断矩阵构造、层次单排序及其一致性检验、层次总排序及其一致性检验等过程,最终结果取一致性检验均通过的最大权重值方案,其它区间的计算过程与之类似,从而得出了各个区间段的最优化治理方案。     

2020年中国发电行业碳减排目标规划相符性分析

基于发电行业节能减排技术的现有应用规划,预测3种不同的GDP增长情景,即减速发展,基准情景和高速发展情景下,若能实现我国现有关于发电行业节能减排技术的规划目标,2020年发电行业的CO2排放量将达到35.32,39.15,43.20亿t.同时基于中国2020年碳强度减排承诺,计算得国家2020年CO2排放目标在不同发展情景下将达到97.30~127.96亿t不等.结合上述结果讨论,发电行业规划目标相符要求2020年的CO2排放比例为33.27%~36.82%.结果表明,若能实现我国现有关于发电行业节能减排技术的规划目标,则对应于不同的GDP增长速度,发电行业总碳排放量能够完成国家承诺碳强度减排的分解目标.     

基于速度特征指标的高速公路线形一致性综合评价

为量化评价已建和拟建高速公路交通安全性,以实测运行车速数据和事故率数据为基础,根据公路空间属性的变化,采用不定长法进行路段划分。考虑不同路段车速协调性和连续性的需求,引入客货差极差比、车速降低系数、路段车速离散度等车速特征指标。通过对运行车速特征指标与事故率的相关性分析,采用多元回归的方法建立了高速公路线形设计一致性综合评价模型,同时结合事故多发点改善效果的显著性,确定我国高速公路安全性服务水平,在此基础上提出线形设计一致性评价标准和评价方法。太旧高速公路的实例应用结果表明,该方法可准确有效地评价线形设计一致性。