淮南市防震减灾决策系统的建立

在机制上将一个地市(淮南市)的地震预报与防震决策融为一个动态整体,从而建立起一个实用性强的防震减灾决策系统,使城市各种防震对策的生成有了更科学的基础。成为市政府在防震减灾决策中不可缺少的工具。     

Designating Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) in the UK Implications for Securing UK Air Quality Objectives

Across the United Kingdom, the majority of local authoritieshave now completed their first phase of local air qualityreview and assessment work, as required under the AirQuality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and NorthernIreland (DETR, 2000a). Emerging from this first phasework is an anticipated suite of over 110 Air QualityManagement Areas (AQMAs). These areas are identifiedlocations where one or more of the national air qualityobjectives are predicted to exceed by specific target dates,and their spatial extent and shape is emerging as highlyvariable. Local authorities are guided to use a variety ofscientific tools to underpin the scientific assessments, anda consideration of uncertainty in both the tools used andsubsequent delineation of AQMAs is likely to affect theemerging management areas significantly. With subsidiarity underpinning the process of local air qualitymanagement (LAQM), local decision-making is anticipated toinfluence the outcome of the LAQM process in its entirety,with the declaration of AQMAs necessitating the preparationand implementation of air quality action plans. UKexperience of the effective management of local air quality,through the designation of AQMAs, demonstrates a valuableframework for other European countries developing mechanismsto manage air quality locally.     

Application of Multiattribute Decision-Making Methods for the Determination of Relative Significance Factor of Impact Categories

A relative significance factor (f _i ) of an impact category is the external weight of the impact category. The objective of this study is to propose a systematic and easy-to-use method for the determination of f _i . Multiattribute decision-making (MADM) methods including the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), the rank-order centroid method, and the fuzzy method were evaluated for this purpose. The results and practical aspects of using the three methods are compared. Each method shows the same trend, with minor differences in the value of f _i . Thus, all three methods can be applied to the determination of f _i . The rank order centroid method reduces the number of pairwise comparisons by placing the alternatives in order, although it has inherent weakness over the fuzzy method in expressing the degree of vagueness associated with assigning weights to criteria and alternatives. The rank order centroid method is considered a practical method for the determination of f _i because it is easier and simpler to use compared to the AHP and the fuzzy method.     

Fuzzy multiple-criteria decision-making approach for industrial green engineering

This paper describes a fuzzy hierarchical analytic approach to determine the weighting of subjective judgments. In addition, it presents a nonadditive fuzzy integral technique to evaluate a green engineering industry case as a fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (FMCDM) problem. When the investment strategies are evaluated from various aspects, such as economic effectiveness, technical feasibility, and environmental regulation, it can be regarded as an FMCDM problem. Since stakeholders cannot clearly estimate each considered criterion in terms of numerical values for the anticipated alternatives/strategies, fuzziness is considered to be applicable. Consequently, this paper uses triangular fuzzy numbers to establish weights and anticipated achievement values. By ranking fuzzy weights and fuzzy synthetic utility values, we can determine the relative importance of criteria and decide the best strategies. This paper applies what is called a λ fuzzy measure and nonadditive fuzzy integral technique to evaluate the synthetic performance of green engineering strategies for aquatic products processors in Taiwan. In addition, we demonstrate that the nonadditive fuzzy integral is an effective evaluation and appears to be appropriate, especially when the criteria are not independent.     

DECISION-MAKING IN THE DEVLOPMENT OF URBAN WATERFRONTS FOR PARK/BUSINESS USE1

Abstract: Opportunities for the development of an amalgam of park and leisure-oriented commercial establishments in urban-core waterfont settings exist in many U.S. cities. Public awareness of the need to enhance the environmental quality of these waterfont areas has resulted in a demand for planning and implementation action. However, the lack of understanding of urban political systems has been an inhibiting factor in the development of this park/ business concept. The major factors that influence the decision-making process leading to the development of urban-core waterfronts for park/business use are identified inthis paper. Understanding this decision-making process can aid project implementation and avoid waste of planning effort in time, dollars, and productivity.     

Decision-making for fire use among farmers in savannas: an exploratory study in the Distrito Federal, central Brazil

Today, fire in the Braziliancerrado(savanna) is predominantly caused by farmers. They use fire during the dry season to promote fresh grass regrowth in pastures for their cattle and to clear areas of planting ready for cultivation in the wet season. This study researched fire use by farmers in thecerradoof the Distrito Federal, central Brazil, in order to investigate what influences their fire management decision-making. The results show that the two main factors limiting the choice of feasible options for farmers to meet their objectives are income and time. However, perceptions also play a major role in the decision-making process, and for many farmers this alone determines whether fire is used. Various fire practices involved with timing, frequency and size, as well as precautions taken before and during the burn, and the factors influencing these decisions are presented. This study shows that it is vital to understand factors determining fire use if effective fire management plans and policies are to be developed.1998 Academic Press     

Knowledge governance for ecosystem-based management: Understanding its context-dependency

The governance of knowledge is a crucial element of ecosystem-based management (EBM) and is deemed important for its effectiveness. In this paper we analyze from an empirical perspective how the governance of knowledge in different EBM practices is organized and with what consequences. Based upon four different case studies – all derived from the Wadden Sea – which resemble different contexts (in terms of available knowledge and level of conflict) we reconstruct four different ways of knowledge governance. These four approaches are labeled the database, the alignment, the assessment and the holistic approach. These approaches differ in how the interaction between knowledge production and decision-making is organized. They show different degrees of success, partly related to the extent to which they fit in the context in which they are applied. Understanding the differences in contexts in which knowledge for EBM has to be organized, can help decision-makers to apply the most suitable way of knowledge governance in their specific case. In cases of low conflict and high knowledge capacity a more static, one-directional way of knowledge governance can suffice, while in more complex contexts a holistic approach seems to be necessary.     

多级模糊决策在地震预报中的应用

本文把多级模糊决策方法应用于地震预报当中。文中详细论证和推导了多级模糊决策方法与模型。该方法使决策部门可以根据输入前兆的变化随时作出合理的对策。文中还给出了地震预报多级模糊决策数字解实例,并用回顾法讨论了1976年松潘7.2级地震的模糊预报决策。     

煤矿突发事件应急救援的群决策方法

提出了基于直觉模糊集的煤矿突发事件应急救援TOPSIS群决策模型。其中决策者权重采用偏好值与群体平均偏好值的相似度计算,属性指标权重采用直觉模糊熵权法确定。通过直觉模糊加权集成运算将各决策矩阵进行合成得到综合决策矩阵,利用改进后的直觉模糊距离公式计算出全部备选救援方案到正负理想解的距离,根据TOPSIS运算结果可以确定最佳事故救援决策方案。最后通过黑龙江省鸡西某矿的实例分析,验证了该模型的有效性及合理性。     

Methodology for Natech coupling risk assessment using correlative multi-criteria decision-making method

When a natural disaster occurs, it may damage multiple industrial facilities in a certain area at the same time, and the resulting Natech events may have an impact on the surrounding industrial facilities, generating coupling risk. In this study, the assessment of Natech events coupling risk is conducted using the method of correlated multi-criteria decision-making, and the knowledge of fuzzy measures is introduced to solve the uncertainty problem in Natech coupling risk. Natech Coupling Risk Index is constructed to involve physical and functional facilities. The concept of equivalent population is proposed to compare the risks generated by physical facilities and functional facilities. And economic indicators are added to calculate the comprehensive risk value. The purpose of this contribution is to enable local government managers to use their expertise and resources and the existing risk assessment of the plants themselves and rely on the scoring of experts limitedly to quickly and easily identify potential high Natech risk areas. In the calculation process of coupling risk, the government can also take the lead to promote information communication between different plants and other industrial subjects. The proposed method was applied in a realistic chemical industry area in Guangzhou, China and in a hypothetical town. The result shows that the physical risk may be transferred to the population and economy through the coupling between industrial facilities and the functional link between functional facilities and population and economy.