武汉地区水环境中全氟化合物污染水平及其分布特征

武汉作为中国氟化工行业的主要生产基地之一,其水环境中全氟及多氟类化合物(PFASs)污染情况对评估该地区水环境生态安全至关重要。采集了武汉城区10个污水处理厂进、出口污水和19个地表水样品,利用HPLC-ESI-MS/MS技术分析研究该区域水环境中PFASs污染水平及其分布特征。结果发现,武汉地区的污水和地表水样品中,PFASs污染均以短链同系物全氟丁酸(PFBA)和全氟丁基磺酸(PFBS)为主。污水处理厂进、出口污水中PFASs总浓度分别为11.8~12 700 ng·L~(-1)和19.1~9 970 ng·L~(-1)。在城区15个湖水样品中,PFASs总浓度为21.0~10 900 ng·L~(-1);在流经城区的4个江水样品中,PFASs总浓度为4.11~4.77 ng·L~(-1),比湖水样品中PFASs浓度水平低1~2个数量级。与污水中PFASs空间分布趋势一致,各湖泊水样中PFASs总体水平呈现汉口汉阳武昌的趋势,表明城市工业布局与人口密度程度直接影响城市PFASs污染空间分布。值得注意的是,与以往水环境中PFASs污染以全氟辛酸(PFOA)和全氟辛基磺酸(PFOS)为主不同,武汉地区水环境中PFASs污染以短链同系物为主,表明短链替代效应已经渐渐在中国化工领域出现,中国全氟行业在响应国际组织规范和建议的基础上做出了实质性进展。然而,对于短链PFASs的污染特征、迁移运输以及生态风险等科学问题,还需要更进一步的研究。     

烟尘烟气监测全程序质量监督评价方法研究

建立了烟尘、烟气监测全程序质量监督体系,确定了监督检查工作需要控制的环节,并细化了各环节需要重点关注的内容。以层次分析法等关键技术为基础,通过赋予监测全过程各环节不同的指标权重,建立了统一化、标准化的综合评价模式。研究将评价体系分为2个层次,一级指标3个,二级指标19个,并确定了每个指标的测评内容及计算方法。将该体系应用于6家监测机构的质量监督工作,证明其实用性和适用性良好。     

基于安徽省土地利用变化的地形梯度效应分析

为揭示地形因素与土地利用空间格局演变的关系,以安徽省2000年、2005年以及2010年Landsat TM影像和DEM数据为数据源,利用坡向、地形起伏度、坡度变率和地形位指数多种地形因子,并结合地学信息图谱分析理论从综合角度系统研究土地利用结构时空分异格局在地形梯度上的变化特点及其规律。结果表明:1)研究区主要的土地利用类型是耕地和林地,其次是建设用地和未利用土地,且建设用地面积逐期增加趋势显著。2)2000~2010年研究区不同土地利用类型在不同地形梯度区间的分异规律存在明显差异。低地形梯度范围是耕地、水域和建设用地的优势分布区;中地形梯度范围是草地的集中分布区;林地的优势分布区集中在高地形梯度范围。3)2000~2010年研究区土地利用图谱以稳定型和后期变化型为主,低地形梯度和高地形梯度是稳定型图谱的集中分布区,中低、中高和高地形梯度范围是后期变化型图谱的优势分布区。2000~2005年林地的优势分布区有向较低地形位梯度扩张的趋势,其中,耕地是主要的转入来源。2005~2010年耕地的优势分布区有向较高地形位梯度扩张的趋势,变化模式主要为:"林地–耕地"、"未利用地–耕地"和"草地–耕地"。     

Ecological citizenship and democracy: Communitarian versus agonistic perspectives

Grassroots environmental movements have recently started to question the focus on sustainable consumption as a main strategy to tackle climate change. They prefer to address individuals as citizens rather than as consumers, and focus on collective rather than individual change. Two prominent movements in this regard are Transition Towns and Climate Justice Action. While both movements criticise conventional approaches, they put forward entirely different strategies for what has to happen instead. Based on extensive qualitative research, this article analyses how these movements manifest themselves in Flanders (Belgium). The focus is on their different accounts of how and why collective practices have to be built, and the place they attribute to ‘the political’ in this. The analysis reveals the existence of two different forms of ecological citizenship: one communitarian, the other agonistic.     

近52年来洞庭湖流域气象干旱的时空分布特征

基于洞庭湖流域84个气象站点1962~2013年的逐日气象资料,利用综合干旱指数(CI)对洞庭湖流域气象干旱的时间和空间特征进行分析。结果表明:在过去52 a,区域性干旱强度较强的时段以夏季、秋季、夏秋和秋冬时节为主;区域干旱强度在春季、夏季、夏秋、冬季呈上升趋势;秋冬时节和年干旱强度变化不明显;春夏时节、夏秋时节、秋冬时节和冬春时节的平均干旱强度比春、夏、秋、冬单个季节的平均干旱强度大。小波分析表明,区域干旱强度的周期以10a为主周期,5 a和22 a为次周期。近52 a来,历年干旱站次比主要集中于10%~30%之间,多表现为区域性干旱,以夏季和秋季的干旱范围较大;干旱频率高发时期主要为夏季、夏秋时节和秋季。干旱频率高发地主要以流域的南部山地和北部的洞庭湖平原为主,西北部的山地发生干旱相对较少,衡邵盆地随季节变化干旱频率易发生高低值转换。     

农户从事生态循环农业意愿与行为的决定:市场收益还是政策激励?

发展生态循环农业是我国新时期转变农业发展方式的战略选择,农户是生态循环农业的经营主体和利益相关者,厘清农户参与生态循环农业的根本动机,对于制定有效的生态循环农业推广措施具有重要意义。文章基于湖北省391份农户调查数据,首先,在文献回顾的基础上提出市场收益、政策激励对农户生态循环农业从事意愿与行为影响路径的基本假设,并利用OLS方法分析市场收益和政策激励对农户从事生态循环农业意愿与行为的影响;其次,运用优势分析法评估市场收益类变量和政策激励类变量影响农户意愿与行为过程中的相对重要性;最后,通过交互效应检验市场收益类变量和政策激励类变量间的交互作用。结果表明:收入预期对农户从事生态循环农业的意愿与行为均有直接的积极影响,是促进农户从事生态循环农业的最重要的因素;焚烧秸秆惩罚政策和废弃物资源化补贴政策对农户从事生态循环农业的意愿有积极影响,沼气池建设补贴政策和废弃物资源化补贴政策对农户生态循环农业行为有促进作用;收入预期与废弃物资源化补贴政策在影响农户生态循环农业行为的过程中存在互补效应。本研究认为,市场收益是刺激农户采纳生态循环农业生产模式的首要因素,因此,要着力完善生态农业市场体系,增强生态农产品的市场竞争力,提升农户对生态循环农业的盈利信心;另外,政策激励对于农户采纳生态循环农业具有促进作用,应该做到约束与激励并行,同时注意加强农业政策的科学设计与落实执行。     

全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下长江中下游地区极端降水的变化特征

基于长江中下游地区1961~2100年区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)模拟与1961~2005年气象站观测的逐日降水数据,通过统计计算年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率4个极端降水指数,研究全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下,长江中下游地区极端降水的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)全球升温1.5℃情景下,年降水量相对于1986~2005年减少5%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加7%、33%和4%;概率密度曲线表明,年降水量均值下降,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值上升,极端降水方差增大;年降水量、强降水量和暴雨日数在空间上表现为南部增加北部减少,极端降水贡献率则相反。(2)全球升温2.0℃情景下,年降水量下降3%,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别上升15%、46%和15%;年降水量均值稍有减少且方差稍有上升,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率均值和方差明显增加;年降水量减少区域位于长江主干以北,强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率表现为绝大部分地区增加的空间变化特征。(3)全球升温由1.5℃至2.0℃时,年降水量、强降水量、暴雨日数和极端降水贡献率分别增加3%、7%、10%和11%;随升温幅度的增加极端降水均值和方差上升;极端降水呈增加态势的范围扩大。因此,努力将升温控制在1.5℃对降低极端降水的影响具有重要意义。     

Influencing climate change regulations: examining responses from large-scale firms

Recent climate change projections and a push towards a universal agreement on carbon emission reductions suggest that firms will need to respond to future regulatory changes. This paper employs an influencing strategies lens to examine how large-scale firms might respond to future climate change regulations. The study uses a structured qualitative methodology to explore and explicate the strategic responses from 21 international firms to the proposed emissions trading scheme outlined in Australia's Garnaut Climate Change Review. The results of the analysis show that firms can use pre-emptive influencing strategies in attempts to shape and mould regulatory design parameters, secure high levels of transitional economic support, and shift the balance of public policies and expenditure. Complementary defensive strategies may also target policy makers and regulators with some of the potential negative consequences of the new regulations.     

Free market ideology and deregulation in Colorado’s oil fields: Evidence for triple movement activism?

Unconventional oil and gas extraction (UOGE) has spurred an unprecedented boom in onshore production in the US. Despite a surge in related research, a void exists regarding inquiries into policy outcomes and perceptions. To address this, support for federal regulatory exemptions for UOGE is examined using survey data collected in 2015 from two Northern Colorado communities. Current regulatory exemptions for UOGE can be understood as components of broader societal processes of neoliberalization. Free market ideology increases public support for federal regulatory exemptions for UOGE. Perceived negative impacts do not necessarily drive people to support increased federal regulation. Utilizing neo-Polanyian theory, interaction between free market ideology and perceived negative impacts is explored. Free market ideology appears to moderate people’s views of regulation: increasing the effect of perceived negative impacts while simultaneously increasing support for deregulation. To conclude, the ways in which free market ideology might normalize the impacts of UOGE activity are discussed.     

Accounting for monogastric livestock as a driver in global land use and cover change assessments

Land systems are described based on various characteristics, including land cover composition and agricultural production. However, it is uncertain to what extent livestock, particularly monogastric livestock, determines land systems. We included monogastrics in a land system classification, and statistically analyzed the land cover composition and agricultural production of otherwise similar land systems with and without monogastric livestock. The results indicate that land systems with monogastrics are statistically different from their counterparts in the classification without monogastrics in terms of grassland area and crop yields, but are less different in terms of tree area, crop area, and ruminant livestock production. We then used a land systems map that includes monogastrics in the classification and a similar map that does not include monogastrics to project future changes in a novel manner that integrates livestock as a determinant of land systems. The results show that including monogastrics in otherwise similar projections yields less cropland intensification and more cropland expansion in several world regions, including Northern Africa and the Middle East. Other regions, such as Europe and Australia, were characterized by less decrease or more increase in tree area in the application with monogastrics, mainly due to the occurrence of open forests with monogastrics. This study prompts a call for improved characterization of land systems for land use and cover change (LUCC) assessments in order to better represent LUCC driven by monogastric livestock.