泛长江三角洲区域经济空间差异分析——基于经验贝叶斯修正的空间自相关指数

忽视了地理位置因素的传统统计分析方法无法真正反映经济要素空间差异的动态演变过程,经验贝叶斯修正的空间自相关指数有效地避免了方差不稳定性,为泛长江三角洲区域经济空间差异的定量分析提供了有力支撑。借助经验贝叶斯修正的空间自相关指数,对1999~2008年泛长江三角洲区域经济发展的总体空间差异、集聚中心和孤立点的空间转移路径以及局部空间差异进行探索性分析。研究结果表明：总体上,经济发展在泛长江三角洲区域具有较好的空间结构性和空间关联性,全局空间自相关指数呈现出波动性增大趋势;经济集聚中心和孤立点的空间转移路径存在一定的规律性,表现为传统长江三角洲地区始终作为高值集聚中心,安徽始终作为低值集聚中心,南昌始终作为高值孤立点,泰州始终作为低值孤立点;从局部来看,区域经济发展表现出十分明显的局部空间差异,表现为传统长江三角洲地区的高值指向性与新扩容省份的低值指向性     

Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis on Regional Economic Disparity of Northeast Economic Region in China

Popular regional inequality indexes such as variation coefficient and Gini coefficient can only reveal overall inequality, and have limited ability in revealing spatial dependence or spatial agglomeration. Recently some methods of exploratory spatial data analysis such as spatial autocorrelation have provided effective tools to analyze spatial agglomeration and cluster, which can reveal the pattern of regional inequality. This article attempts to use spatial autocorrelation at county level to get refined spatial pattern of regional disparity in Chinese northeast economic region over 2000-2006 （2001 absent）. The result indicates that the basic trend of regional economy is an increasing concentration of growth among counties in northeast economic region, and there are two geographical clusters of poorer counties including the counties in western Liaoning Province and adjacent counties in Inner Mongolia, poorer counties of Heihe, Qiqihar and Suihua in Heilongjiang Province. This article also reveals that we can use the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis as the supplementary analysis methods in regional economic analysis.     

江苏省国内旅游经济区域差异及演变

以江苏省13个地级市为基本研究单元,采用变异系数、Theil系数、nich指数等指标定量分析了1999～2010年江苏省国内旅游经济的总体差异、内部构成、空间格局及演变。结果表明：（1）1999～2010年江苏省国内旅游经济的区域总体差异呈现先增加后缩小的特征,1999～2005年呈波动增加,2005年以后总体差异逐渐下降;（2）旅游经济区域差异的构成以苏南、苏中和苏北地区间差异为主,三大地区之间的差异奠定了江苏省国内旅游经济区域差异的基本格局,地区内差异所占比重相对较小;（3）江苏省国内旅游经济的发展水平和发展速度都呈现明显的南北梯度差异,且旅游经济区域差异的空间格局在一段时间内还将持续存在。在此基础上提出了促进江苏省区域旅游经济协调发展的对策和建议     

中国旅游业集聚化水平及演化空间差异研究

旅游业空间集聚是一种客观的经济现象,旅游业集聚化水平在一定程度上决定了区域旅游经济效益的发挥。运用变异系数、空间集聚指数分析了我国旅游业集聚化水平及演化空间差异。结果表明,我国旅游业集聚化水平空间差异显著,总体上以环渤海、长三角、珠三角地区为中心,空间形态呈由东向西逐渐减弱的阶梯式空间格局。随着旅游业的不断发展,旅游业集聚化水平表现出向西梯度推移的态势。旅行社空间非均衡性程度高,空间差异不断扩大,星级饭店、景区（点）空间非均衡性相对较弱,空间差异呈缩小趋势。旅行社、星级饭店、旅游景区（点）集聚化水平表现出较强的空间耦合性,相关性显著。同时,就我国旅游业集聚化水平空间差异影响机制进行了初步探讨。     

中国旅游业发展质量空间差异综合分析

从旅游者、旅游企业、区域影响层面构建旅游业发展质量综合评价指标体系,对我国大陆31个省（市、自治区）旅游业发展质量空间分异进行了综合分析。研究表明,我国旅游业发展质量空间差异明显,东部地区旅游业发展质量普遍高于中西部地区。根据旅游业发展质量空间差异,将我国旅游业发展质量划分为5个等级,概括为6大片区,并指出我国旅游业发展质量具有空间集聚的分布特征。     

Adaptation to Climatic Variability and Change: Asian Perspectives on Agriculture and Food Security

The impacts of climate change on potential rice production in Asia are reviewed in the light of the adaptation to climatic variability and change. Collaborative studies carried out by IRRI and US-EPA reported that using process-based crop simulation models increasing temperature may decrease rice potential yield up to 7.4% per degree increment of temperature. When climate scenarios predicted by GCMs were applied it was demonstrated that rice production in Asia may decline by 3.8% under the climates of the next century. Moreover, changes in rainfall pattern and distribution were also found suggesting the possible shift of agricultural lands in the region. The studies however have not taken the impacts of climatic variability into account, which often produce extreme events like that caused by monsoons and El Niño. Shifts in rice-growing areas are likely to be constrained by land-use changes occurring for other developmental reasons, which may force greater cultivation of marginal lands and further deforestation. This should be taken into account and lead to more integrated assessment, especially in developing countries where land-use change is more a top-down policy rather than farmers' decision. A key question is: To what extent will improving the ability of societies to cope with current climatic variability through changing design of agricultural systems and practices help the same societies cope with the likely changes in climate?     

辽宁省城市化发展水平区域差异及驱动力研究

采用复合指标方法对辽宁省14个省辖市的城市化发展水平进行了测度.结果表明,辽宁省内城市化发展水平呈现高低落差大的格局.根据测度结果进行城市化发展水平类型划分,探讨了影响城市化发展水平区域差异的驱动力,主要包括资源禀赋因素、经济因素、经济全球化因素、城市基础设施因素、历史和政策因素.     

不同水位期汉丰湖和高阳湖上覆水时空分异特征

为研究三峡库区不同水位条件下澎溪河流域永久性回水区高阳湖与城市内湖汉丰湖的水环境差异,确定影响湖库水环境变化的水质指标,于2018年11月~2019年10月,对两湖库上覆水进行逐月样品采集.以水质监测数据为基础,参照三峡水库调度的时间周期,将采样时间划分为蓄水期,消落期和泄水期3个时段,运用多元统计方法,分析了2个湖库的水环境时空分异特征.单因子水质评价结果显示,湖库水质等级具有时空分异性,浮游植物大量生长发育的3,4,5月及雨量充足的7,8月,2个湖大部分处于劣Ⅳ~劣Ⅴ类,而一年中其他时段主要达到地表水Ⅲ类标准.判别分析表明,透明度,溶氧,电导率,pH值,水温,水深（depth）,总有机碳,总氮和氨氮均为两湖库水环境时空显著性差异的指示因子,泄水期,2个湖库水环境差异不大,但蓄水期和消落期,2个湖水环境具有明显的差异性.主成分分析显示,不同水位条件下,引起湖库水环境变化的主导因子不同,消落期水环境主要影响因子为TN,NH₃-N,水深和pH值;泄水期主要是TN,TP和EC;蓄水期主要影响因子为水深,TOC,TN,TP和NH₃-N.水体污染程度来看,汉丰湖：蓄水期 > 消落期 > 泄水期;空间表现为：HF3 < HF1 < HF2 < HF4 < HF5 < HF8 < HF7 < HF6.高阳湖：泄水期 > 消落期 > 蓄水期;空间表现为GY2 < GY3 < GY1 < GY5 < GY6 < GY4.     

Regional Disparities in China’s Mainland at Provincial Level Between 2000 and 2005

Based on the methodology provided by Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development,we analyze regional disparities in China’s mainland at provincial level between 2000 and 2005.It regards regional GDP growth as the joint result of contribution of a number of factors,i.e.capital productivity,capital per manpower,specialization,employment rate,active population,and population.The results show that for all provincial units,capital per manpower is a dominant contributing factor to the growth of GDP per...     

黑河上中游水质时空分异特征及污染源解析

在黑河上中游主要河道设置33个水样监测点,分别于2017年5月（平水期）、8月（丰水期）、12月（枯水期）进行水质调查,运用GIS和水质标识指数法对水环境质量进行评价,并采用多元统计的方法分析了水质时空分布特征及潜在污染物来源.结果表明：区域内水质类别以Ⅱ类和Ⅲ类为主,并具有一定的时空分异性.时间上水体污染程度表现为枯水期 > 平水期 > 丰水期,空间上表现为上游支流区 > 上游干流区 > 中游.依据土地利用类型将33个采样点划分为放牧与工矿企业用地（A组）、水库建设用地（B组）和农业与城镇人居用地（C组）.结合因子分析和主成分回归分析得出,NH₃-N、BOD₅和COD_Mn是该区域的典型污染物,其中A组污染源主要来自于有机物,其次是营养盐;B组水体主要受到机物和营养物的蓄积污染,而自然因素的影响相对较弱;C组主要是生物化学污染,其次为非点源营养盐污染.研究表明,人类活动依然是影响水质变差的主要因素,虽然大坝的拦截效应能改善下泄水质,但常年累积于库底的沉积物随环境变化有二次污染的潜在风险,如沉积物中营养盐的活化释放等问题.