基于实车驾驶试验的螺旋匝道小客车纵向驾驶行为研究

为明确螺旋匝道(螺旋桥)驾驶操纵行为及车辆状态特征,选取2条桥头立交螺旋匝道和2座螺旋桥,开展小客车实车路试,通过连续采集行驶速度、加速度、踏板力等驾驶数据,分析螺旋匝道(桥)及前后衔接段的纵向驾驶行为特性.结果表明:行驶速度在螺旋匝道范围内基本恒定,并明显高于设计速度,螺旋匝道段的速度分布比主线段更集中,螺旋匝道对驾...     

长江中游城市群县域城镇化水平空间格局演变及驱动因子分析

在通过可达性方法确定长江中游城市群县域范围的基础上,运用熵值法从人口、经济及社会3个子系统对长江中游城市群县域2001、2006及2011年3个时期城镇化发展水平进行综合测度,运用空间自相关对综合城镇化水平的空间演变进行分析并分类,利用回归分析对各类型县域进行驱动因子分析。结果表明:(1)长江中游城市群县域综合城镇化水平持续提升,但各地区间的发展速度差异明显;在子系统演化过程中,以经济城镇化的快速演进为主要特征,其次为社会城镇化,最后为人口城镇化过程。(2)综合城镇化水平及其变化率与城市等级规模、交通及产业结构转型密切相关;各子系统在空间格局演变进程中有着不同的特点,但子系统变化率间具有明显的正相关性。(3)长江中游城市群县域城镇化依据关联性可以划分为"耦合聚集"型、"中心洼地"型、"拮抗聚集"型及"核心边缘"型,各类型县域空间格局演变明显。(4)內源力在"耦合聚集"型县域及"拮抗聚集"县域城镇化进程中具有促进作用,投资力对"中心洼地"型县域影响作用明显,而"核心边缘"型县域主要驱动因子为行政力和內源力;根据各类型县域主要驱动因子提出促进城镇化发展的相应措施,以做到因地制宜地指导各地区城镇化健康发展。     

Associations between driver training, determinants of risky driving behaviour and crash involvement

The core aim of the study is to examine associations between formal and informal practical driver training as well as driving experience on the one hand and young drivers’ safety attitudes, self-assessment of driving ability and self-reported driver behaviour on the other hand. An additional aim is to examine the associations between attitudes, self-assessment and behaviour on the one hand and crash involvement on the other hand. The results are based on a self-completion questionnaire survey conducted among a representative sample of Norwegian drivers aged 18–20 years (n = 1419). The results showed that there were small yet significant associations between driver training, on the one hand and traffic safety attitudes and risky driving behaviour on the other hand. The amount of formal driver training was negatively associated with the respondents’ evaluation of their driving skills; although the amount of lay instruction was positively associated with such self-evaluation. The results also showed that attitudes as well as self-assessment of driving ability were significantly associated with self-reported risk behaviour. This was especially true for attitudes related to rule violations. There was a strong association between crash involvement and exposure (measured as months holding a licence). Young novice drivers’ crash involvement seems stronger associated with driving skills (manifested as self-assessment of driving ability) than safety attitudes and self-reported driver behaviour. The consequences of the results for driver training and accident prevention are discussed.     

驾驶员注意涣散检测技术研究

通过对注意涣散时驾驶员头部运动及面部表情变化特征的分析,系统实时监测驾驶员眼睛、嘴巴位置和运动状态信息,构建驾驶员注意涣散特征表征参量,实现对驾驶员注意涣散状态信息的检测与提取。驾驶员注意涣散表征量具有复杂的非线性特征,利用BP神经网络非线性识别的优势对驾驶员注意特征进行模式分类,实现驾驶员不同注意涣散状态下的特征捕捉。同时采用Dempster-Shafer证据推理技术,对驾驶注意涣散多源表征信息进行决策融合,实现对驾驶员注意涣散状态的判断。结果表明,BP神经网络与D-S规则多源信息决策融合技术的运用提高了驾驶员注意涣散特征检测的准确性和可靠性。     

Age group differences in collision risk

Introduction

The purpose of the current study was to examine differences in factors associated with self-reported collision involvement of three age groups of drivers based on a large representative sample of Ontario adults. Method: This study was based on data from the CAMH Monitor, an ongoing cross-sectional telephone survey of Ontario adults 18 years and older from 2002 to 2005. Three age groups were examined: 18-34 (n = 1,294), 35-54 (n = 2,428), and 55+ (n = 1,576). For each age group sample, a logistic regression analysis was conducted of self-reported collision involvement in the last 12 months by risk factor measures of driving exposure (kilometers driven in a typical week, driving is stressful, and driving on busy roads), consuming five or more drinks of alcohol on one occasion (past 12 months), cannabis use (lifetime, and past 12 months), and driving after drinking among drinkers (past 12 months), controlling for demographics (gender, region, income, and marital status). Results: The study identified differences in factors associated with self-reported collision involvement of the three age groups of adult drivers. The logistic regression model for the youngest group revealed that drivers who reported that driving was stressful at least some of the time, drank five or more drinks on an occasion, and drove after drinking had an increased risk of collision involvement. For the middle age group, those who reported using cannabis in the last 12 months had significantly increased odds of reporting collision involvement. None of the risk factor measures showed significant associations with collision risk for older drivers (aged 55+). Impact: The results suggest potential areas for intervention and new directions for future research.     

The effects of minimum legal drinking age 21 laws on alcohol-related driving in the United States

Objective

To examine trends in alcohol consumption and alcohol-related crashes among people younger than 21 in the United States and to review evidence on the effects of minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) laws.

Methods

Trends in alcohol-related crashes and alcohol consumption among young people were examined, and studies on the effects of lowering and raising the drinking age were reviewed.

Results

MLDA laws underwent many changes during the 20th century in the United States. Since July 1988, the MLDA has been 21 in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Surveys tracking alcohol consumption among high school students and young adults found that drinking declined since the late 1970 s, and most of the decline occurred by the early 1990 s. These were the years when states were establishing, or reinstating, a MLDA-21. Among fatally injured drivers ages 16-20, the percentage with positive BACs declined from 61% in 1982 to 31% in 1995, a bigger decline than for older age groups; declines occurred among the ages directly affected by raising MLDAs (ages 18-20) and among young teenagers not directly affected (ages 16-17). Almost all studies designed specifically to gauge the effects of drinking age changes show MLDAs of 21 reduce drinking, problematic drinking, drinking and driving, and alcohol-related crashes among young people. Yet many underage people still drink, many drink and drive, and alcohol remains an important risk factor in serious crashes of young drivers, especially as they progress through the teenage years. Stepped-up enforcement of MLDA and drinking and driving laws can reduce underage drinking. Recent efforts to lower MLDAs to 18 and issue licenses to drink upon completion of alcohol education have gained local and national media attention. There is no evidence that alcohol education can even partially replace the effect of MLDA-21.

Conclusions

The cause and effect relationship between MLDAs of 21 and reductions in highway crashes is clear. Initiatives to lower the drinking age to 18 ignore the demonstrated public health benefits of MLDAs of 21.

Impact on Industry

Lowering the drinking age to 18 will increase highway crash deaths among young people.     

长江中游城市群城市化对PM2.5浓度的多尺度驱动机制

探究城市化对PM_2.5浓度的非线性影响及其驱动机制,对城市的大气污染治理具有重要意义.基于2002~2020年长江中游城市群的遥感数据和统计数据,采用空间自相关、系统动态面板回归模型和时空地理加权回归模型等方法,揭示长江中游城市群PM_2.5浓度的时空演变,并探究不同空间尺度下城市化对PM_2.5浓度的驱动机制.结果表明：①2002~2020年长江中游城市群PM_2.5浓度整体呈下降趋势,在空间上大致呈“北高南低”的分布格局.②热点城市有向长江中游城市群西部扩张的趋势,冷点城市空间相关程度有所增强.③PM_2.5浓度与经济城市化、土地城市化和人口城市化之间分别存在“N”型、倒“U”型和“U”型曲线关系.第二产业和能源消耗对PM_2.5浓度变化呈显著促进作用,降水和植被能够有效地削弱PM_2.5污染.④各城市化因子在局部的整体驱动效应均发生了转化,其主要影响区域集中在长江中游城市群的东南、西北和西南等边缘地带城市.结合长江中游城市群的城市发展现状和区域特征,推进产业绿色转型,合理规划城市空间布局和人口分布,增强基础设施建设将有助于实现城市发展和环境保护之间的协调发展.     

基于最优尺度地理探测的长三角有机污染物时空分布驱动因素分析

场地污染对人体健康和生态环境造成了严重危害,理解其时空分布规律是污染评估和场地修复的基础.为此基于场地采样数据,利用最优尺度地理探测器分析长三角地区有机污染物时空分布规律及其驱动因素.结果表明:①长三角场地有机污染物空间分布存在显著的尺度效应,其最佳地理探测尺度格网为8000 m;②长三角污染物空间分布的主控因子最主要来源于生物场,其次来源于化学场;③在土壤0~20 cm深度,蔗糖酶含量、脲酶含量、微生物量氮、全氮含量和离子交换量等对有机污染物空间分布的解释力较大.在土壤20~40 cm深度,对有机污染物空间分布解释力较强的因子是土壤湿度、人口和全氮含量等.随着土壤深度的加深,水动力场的因子解释力增强.④春季里人口、全氮含量和多酚氧化酶含量等对有机污染物空间分布解释力较强.秋季里有机污染物的空间分布更复杂,因子之间表现出更强烈的非线性增强现象和双因子增强现象.     

乡村振兴与乡村旅游协调发展时空演变及驱动因子——以四川省为例

运用熵权法、耦合协调模型和地理探测器分析了2008—2019年四川省乡村振兴与乡村旅游发展水平与耦合协调度的演变特征及驱动因子,总结了各市(州)的发展类型,并提出差异化发展策略。结果表明:①四川省乡村振兴与乡村旅游发展水平呈上升趋势,攀枝花乡村振兴发展缓慢,成都、阿坝州、宜宾是乡村旅游发展的重心。②乡村振兴与乡村旅游呈耦合协调发展趋势,具有显著的空间异质性,以濒临失调和勉强协调为主,呈东南低、北部高的空间格局。③星级农家乐和乡村酒店数量、全社会固定资产投资、国家级非物质文化遗产数、旅游总收入占GDP比重等是影响乡村振兴与乡村旅游协调发展的主要因子。     

东南丘陵土地利用变化及驱动力研究--以衡阳市为例

在GIS,Excel, SPSS11.0的支持下,以土地详查数据为依据,对衡阳市1994~2001年的土地利用变化过程进行了全面分析,揭示了衡阳市近七年来土地利用变化的时空特点,并分析了其主要原因。研究表明：(1)衡阳市1994~2001年耕地、未利用地面积总体减少,其他用地均有不同程度增加,土地利用类型变动的总体方向是：农用地和未利用地向建设用地转化,耕地向园地、水域转化,未利用地向林地转化。(2) 衡阳市土地利用变化存在较大的时间和空间差异。时间上1997年前土地利用变化显著,1997年后变化较小;空间上以祁东县和衡阳市区变化较大,衡南县、南岳区变化较小。(3)人口因素、政策因素、经济因素是衡阳市土地利用变化的主要影响因素。1997年前后土地利用变化情况的差异主要由政策因素造就,地形地貌因素及经济因素则主导了区内空间差异的形成。