富阳地区水资源自然支持力分析评价

以富阳地区为例,采用主成分分析法,寻找出影响水资源自然支持力的主要驱动因子;再根据富阳地区某一时段内的水资源量(因变量)与其驱动力(自变量)之间存在的线性关系,利用统计资料,对可能引起水资源自然支持力变化的各种驱动力因子进行多变量分析。得出,对富阳地区水资源自然支持力影响较大的指标是水资源可利用量、地表水资源量、地下水资源量、水资源的剩余开采程度和化学需氧量。从计算结果可以看出:富阳地区的水资源自然支持力总体来看在逐年减弱,原因在于近年来富阳地区造纸行业异军突起,用水量急剧加大,总污水排放量增多,使得水资源支持力系统变得越来越脆弱。最后,针对目前的水资源现况提出了一些提高富阳地区水资源自然支持力的措施。     

吉林西部土地利用/覆被时空变化驱动力分析

针对吉林两部土地利用/覆被情况,基于TM影像,借助人机交互解译方法,结合1:10万地形图获得1986年、1996年、2000年和2004年的4期土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)矢量数据.利用土地利用动态度模型、土地利用转移矩阵.全面揭示研究区15年的LUCC时空变化特征,结果表明.盐碱地扩张,湿地、水域萎缩和草地退化已经成为吉林西部生态环境恶化的突出表现.结合研究区的实际情况选取总人口数、农业人口数、粮食总产置等12个指标作为LUCC:变化的丰十会经济驱动因子,借助多元线性回归模型,建立主要土地利用类型的驱动力模型.结果表明吉林西部土地利用变化的最主要社会经济因子是农业人口数、农民人均纯收入、农业生产技术(农业机械总动力、化肥施用量)和农村用电量,同时提出相应的生态环境保护和社会经济措施.     

区域土地利用变化的物质代谢响应初步研究

文章在描述相关研究进展的基础上,认为在物质资源不断减少的情形下,物质代谢效率提高对于人类社会发展具有更为重要的意义。并在此基础上,分析了土地利用方式、土地利用强度、土地利用布局等土地利用变化过程对于物质代谢变化的影响机理。以江苏省为例进行实证分析,构建区域土地利用变化的物质代谢驱动力模型。结果表明,随着1989年以来江苏省土地利用强度的不断提高,物质代谢通量快速增长。土地利用强度越高,物质代谢通量值越大,土地利用强度提高10%,则物质代谢通量将提高5.62%,因此,资源利用量与污染物排放量越多,带来的环境冲击也就越大;但土地利用强度越高,物质代谢效率值就越小,土地利用强度每提高10%,物质代谢效率就提高5.03%,因而单位GD P的资源利用量与污染物排放量也就越少。虽然物质代谢效率在提高,但是物质资源日益稀缺,物质代谢效率需进一步提升。最后提出了区域土地利用变化物质代谢效应响应的研究方向。     

集约化农区近50年耕地数量变化驱动机制分析——以河北省曲周县为例

根据曲周县历年耕地数量变化统计数据和1986年土地利用现状以及1986～2000年土地利用变更调查数据进行分析表明,曲周县耕地面积经历了增加→急剧减少→缓慢减少→快速上升→相对稳定的变化过程。1949～1957年为耕地增加期,全县年平均递增率达到0.43%;1958～1961年为耕地急剧减少期,年均递减1.55%;1962～1974年为耕地缓慢减少期,年均递减0.47%;1975～1985年为耕地数量快速增加期,年均递增0.63%;1986～1999年为耕地数量相对稳定的阶段,耕地年均递减0.026%。人口变化、自然因素变化、技术进步、区域经济发展和政策演变共同组成了耕地数量变化的驱动力系统。人口增加对粮食和住宅用地的需要为耕地数量的增加提供了最根本的需求;气候因素的变化为大量盐渍土的改良提供了基础,而只有技术进步才能使大量盐渍土变为耕地;以第一产业为主的经济结构组成,使耕地比重占据了土地利用结构中的主导地位;而国家政策的阶段性变化,促使耕地数量发生了相应变化。     

东北三省农田生态系统碳排放时空分异特征及驱动因素研究

根据2000—2014年东北三省碳排放的相关数据,结合空间探索性分析及地理加权回归等模型方法,对研究区农田生态系统碳排放量的空间集聚性、差异性及其重要驱动因素进行研究.结果表明:东北三省农田生态系统碳排放量存在比较显著的全局空间正相关,自相关性在整体上表现出逐渐增强的趋势,到2014年全局Moran's I指数达到最高值0.3395.在局部空间相关关系上,东北三省农田生态系统碳排放量的高-高区域集中在黑龙江省和吉林省,低-低地区主要集中在辽宁省,表现出不平衡的发展格局.人均GDP对农田生态系统碳排放有负效应,总人口数对农田生态系统碳排放的影响从正效应转变为负效应,化肥施用对农田生态系统碳排放影响程度的空间分布格局发生了较大变化,代表生产技术水平和能源消耗的农业化肥施用量和农业机械总动力因素对农田生态系统碳排放的影响较大,东北三省农田生态系统碳排放和农业机械总动力相关程度有逐渐趋同的趋势.     

智能手机应用程序使用与操作的驾驶分心风险影响研究

为研究智能手机应用程序操作方式与使用行为对驾驶分心影响的问题,探讨智能手机程序操作方式对驾驶分心影响的优劣关系,基于结构方程模型提出4个因果关系假设,构建涵盖程序使用、驾驶分心、驾驶绩效等潜变量的智能手机使用行为影响的结构方程模型。通过收集线下问卷的方式进行调查,搭建模拟场景,设计6项实验方案,通过驾驶模拟实验方式收集相关数据,建立相对偏差矩阵。研究结果表明：手机通话功能的使用(路径系数0.472)对驾驶分心影响显著,手机导航功能使用(路径系数0.256)、手机音乐功能使用(路径系数0.249)对驾驶分心影响不显著。语音交互方式均优于手动操作方式,其中语音交互启动导航方式(F₃=0.019)的影响最小。研究结果可对道路驾驶情况下智能手机应用使用与操作方式的研究起推动作用。     

Relationship between neuropsychological tests and driver's license renewal tests in Parkinson's disease

Objective: To determine whether the standard Spanish driving test (ASDE test) was able to identify patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) at risk of unsafe driving and to examine the relationship between the ASDE test and the Useful Field of View (UFOV) as well as with a battery of neuropsychological tests in drivers with PD.

Methods: Thirty-seven patients with PD and 33 controls matched by age and education level were included in an observational study. All participants were active drivers and patients with PD underwent study procedures after taking the medication in the “on” period. Subjects with a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score ≤ 24 were excluded. Neuropsychological tests (Repeatable Battery for Neuropsychological Status [RBANS], Trail Making Test [TMT-A and -B], and Block Design test), driving performance tests (ASDE Driver Test and UFOV), and daytime sleepiness (Epworth Sleepiness Scale) were assessed.

Results: The PD group performed significantly worse than healthy controls in the ASDE Motor Coordination tests. No significant differences were observed in anticipation speed, multiple reaction time, concentrated attention, and resistance to monotony. All participants successfully completed the UFOV tests. Statistically significant differences between patients with PD and controls were found in processing speed (UFOV1; P =.03) and more patients with PD were found in the categories of higher driving risk levels (P =.03). In addition, patients with PD showed worse scores than healthy controls in visuospatial capacities (Line Orientation), psychomotor speed (Coding and TMT-A), memory (List Recognition, Story Recall), and executive function (TMT-B). The driving tests (ASDE and UFOV) showed a low sensitivity and a high specificity but a higher percentage of patients in the PD group failed in multiple reaction time, concentrated attention, and resistance to monotony. In addition, 18.9% of patients with PD showed a cutoff of 4 for UFOV risk. In the discriminant analysis, Line Orientation (visuospatial/constructive domain) and Figure Recall (delayed memory) were found to be statistically significant with a rate of correct classification of unsafe drivers with PD of 78.2%. In addition, normal results on the Line Orientation item were associated with a 1.5 times higher probability of non-risky driving in the multivariate analysis.

Conclusions: At early stages of the disease, about 19% of patients with PD showed difficulties that may affect their driving capabilities. Line Orientation and Figure Recall are useful to alert clinicians to the risk of unsafe driving. For this reason, patients with PD should be evaluated for driving abilities more regularly to determine the extent of deficits that may influence driving performance.     

A community driving under the influence (DUI) study of declining arrests

Abstract

Objective: Recent news reports in 2016 indicated that across Miami–Dade County, Florida, driving under the influence (DUI) arrests have decreased substantially. The objective of this research was to determine the reasons for the decline in DUI arrests from 2009 to 2016. Are there fewer impaired drivers on the roads? Can DUI enforcement and prosecution be improved?

Methods: The following methods were used in this study: (1) Analysis of existing DUI arrest and crash data; (2) conducting and analysis of a telephone survey of reported knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors concerning impaired driving; (3) conducting and analysis of roadside surveys on the roads on weekend nights in Miami–Dade County; (4) information from focus group discussions with police and prosecutors in Miami–Dade County; and (5) a comprehensive review of the best DUI prevention practices and enforcement strategies used across the country.

Results: DUI arrests decreased 64% in Miami–Dade County between 2009 and 2016. This was a significantly larger decrease than has occurred in the State of Florida as a whole (34%) and in the United States (29%) over the same time period. The decline was not due to any decline in DUI behavior in the county.

Conclusions: Based upon the data and information gathered in this project, the following actions were recommended for Miami–Dade County: (1) County police chiefs need to find ways to overcome law enforcement apathy toward DUI enforcement and persuade their traffic enforcement officers to be proactive rather than reactive when it comes to identifying and making impaired driving stops. (2) County police agencies should join forces to conduct more sobriety checkpoints. Checkpoints are safer for both the police and the drivers going through them and serve as a general deterrent to impaired driving. (3) An interagency DUI task force or team of 5 to 7 officers should be established within the county. These officers would be solely dedicated to DUI enforcement and paid for by each individual agency or under a grant from the state or federal government.     

上海市在用车监测与维修制度探讨

根据上海市机动车辆的管理现状，提出上海市在用车I/M制度体系网络、监测方法、数据收集网络与“通过/不通过”排放限值方面的基本设想，为建立一个真正有效的在用车监测与维修制度提供依据。     

深圳市土地利用动态趋势分析

在分析深圳市土地利用变化与驱动力的基础上 ,将城镇用地细化为工业用地、居住用地和第三产业用地 ,并将它们与耕地和工业投资、人口增长、收入水平、水资源状况等主要驱动力纳入统一的总体结构中 ,采用系统动力学的方法 ,定量地描述它们的动态关系。系统动力学模型的基本模拟结果显示 ,城镇用地的长期变化趋势是一种“S”型的增长规律 ,从1980年至2030年是城镇用地变化的快速增长阶段。在城镇用地的变化过程中 ,工业用地、居住用地和第三产业用地在总的城镇用地中所占的比例在经过一个较长时期的波动后 ,大约从2020年开始基本保持稳定的状态。耕地的变化趋势是持续下降 ,并逐渐消失