Understanding the context of alcohol impaired driving for fatal crash–involved drivers: A descriptive case analysis

Objective: The objective of this study was to understand the social context and circumstances surrounding alcohol-impaired driving prior to fatal crash involvement for drivers with an illegal blood alcohol concentration (BAC ≥ 0.05 g/100 ml or 0.00 g/100 ml for restricted license holders).

Methods: Coroners' case reports investigating fatal crashes in South Australia over a 3-year period (2008–2010) were examined. The personal and crash characteristics of drivers with an illegal BAC were compared with those who had a legal BAC. For each driver with an illegal BAC, information was recorded including characteristics of last trip, location and social context of alcohol consumption, quantity and type of alcohol consumed, BAC level, presence of drugs, perceived alcohol intoxication, and alcohol dependence. Official traffic offense records were also obtained.

Results: Of the 284 fatal crashes included in the study, 34% (n = 95) involved a driver or rider with an illegal BAC. Prior to the crash, alcohol was most frequently consumed by drivers in rural areas, within private homes, and was part of normal social activities. Drivers recorded a high level of alcohol impairment, with a mean BAC of 0.173 g/100 ml and a level of alcohol dependence that was above the Australian national average (7.4 vs. 3.9%). In addition, 23% of drivers were known to be experiencing psychological stress at the time of the crash. The results also confirm that drink driving recidivism continues to be a significant problem, with 44% of drivers recording at least one prior alcohol driving offense.

Conclusions: Alcohol-impaired driving continues to be a leading cause of fatal crashes. The popularity of drinking at home, particularly in rural areas, has implications for police enforcement strategies and suggests that drink driving interventions that focus on community values and looking after friends might be beneficial. Importantly, the study highlights the need for a broader holistic approach to reduce the high levels of alcohol consumption and alcohol dependence underlying drink driving behavior.     

市场导向的绿色技术创新机理与对策研究

基于对绿色技术创新的特殊属性、企业绿色技术创新环境和驱动力的转变分析,给出了市场导向对企业绿色技术创新的驱动机理。研究发现,企业绿色技术创新具有进度紧迫性、社会实用性、市场导向性及双重外部性等特殊属性,需借助市场机制来驱动企业绿色技术创新投入。市场导向下的企业绿色技术创新,就是要借助市场机制来优化企业绿色技术创新要素的配置效率。其中,市场供求机制有利于释放绿色技术创新要素的供需信号,市场竞争机制有利于提高绿色技术创新企业的市场竞争力;市场的价格机制有利于绿色技术创新企业的价值实现。最后,结合我国绿色技术创新发展实践提出6点建议:以解决突出矛盾为导向,精准设计市场规制措施;以优化顶层设计为起点,实现多主体协同发力;强化知识产权保护,制定绿色产业专利战略;多管齐下促进绿色消费,引导企业绿色技术创新;完善绿色标准和标识制度,倒逼绿色技术升级;建立绿色技术创新发展评估体系,有针对性地提高市场规制效率。     

“流空间”视域下淮海经济区城乡融合发展驱动机制

从要素流动多维重构淮海经济区城乡融合评价体系,以动态耦合协调度模型测度城乡融合水平并分析其时空分异规律,最后从“流空间”视角探索城乡融合发展驱动机制。结果表明：（1）研究区城乡融合水平整体较低但趋势向好,其正向空间关联和局域内向集聚特征明显。（2）流空间视角下区域呈多中心网络结构,且在人流和资金流下相对紧密,而物流和信息流下“核—辐”结构突出。（3）推动核心区集聚效应转向扩散效应,发挥各城市节点比较优势,合理调节要素流动强度、方向和质量,并在实施地方和国家政策时配套相关制度,方能实现淮海经济区城乡融合“量”“质”同升。     

闽三角地区碳排放时空差异及影响因素研究

以闽三角地区为研究对象,以2005~2017年为研究期,构建城市尺度的碳排放清单,应用对数平均迪氏指数分解方法从时间维度的纵向比较和典型年份城市横向比较两个维度开展了驱动因素的分解分析及评价,探讨了闽三角碳排放变化影响因素的时空差异.结果显示：研究期内闽三角CO₂排放增长较快,从2005年的74.08Mt增加到2017年169.48Mt,增幅为128.75%.其中,泉州贡献最大,占比为67.93%.碳排放变化趋势分析来看,产业结构和经济增长为导致闽三角地区碳排放量增长的主要因素,累计贡献度分别为30.38%和12.21%,能源结构为抑制碳排放的重要影响因素,累计贡献度为-45.76%.时空差异上看,能源结构效应在研究期内均表现为抑制效应,最大贡献率为52.95%;而产业结构效应均表现为促进效应,最大贡献率为33.85%.在研究期内,漳州市碳减排力度最大,最大净减排148.27Mt.而泉州市经济增长和产业结构效应贡献率较大,未来仍具有较大的减排空间.厦门市经济增长和产业结构效应贡献率均低于参考值,且在研究期内变动幅度较小,碳减排压力较低.研究结果深化了闽三角地区碳排放的时空格局及影响因素的科学认识,为闽三角地区及相似城市群的减排治理提供了有益借鉴.     

基于系统动力学的城市生态系统建设路径研究——以天津市为例

城市生态系统是一个复杂的巨系统,随着经济社会的发展,城市生态系统面临着诸多环境问题,研究城市生态系统建设路径对城市生态环境的改善具有重要意义.本文将影响城市生态系统建设的宏观因素分为5个主要子系统：经济子系统、人口子系统、环境子系统、资源子系统和能源子系统.利用系统动力学模型（System Dynamics, SD）构建城市生态系统的因果回路图和存量流量图,定量描述人口、资源、环境、能源与经济子系统中各相关变量之间的动态反馈关系,以模拟其建设状况及未来变化趋势.考虑到不同的政策驱动因素对城市生态系统建设的影响不同,设置了自然增长型、人口控制型、环境导向型、科技导向型、资源节约型和平衡发展型6种建设路径,通过改变主要模型参数的值来模拟关键变量的变化.研究发现,城市生态环境问题是人口增速过快、产业发展不均衡、水资源匮乏等综合原因造成的.最适合天津市的发展路径是在控制人口增量的同时加强人才引进政策,以此来提高全市科技发展水平,在增加供水方面不仅要依靠科技进步来促进再生水利用量,还要增加外来调水.     

白洋淀养殖区春季沉积物垂向微生物群落特征及驱动因素

结合16S rRNA高通量测序技术,对春季白洋淀养殖区（后塘和西李庄）沉积物垂向细菌群落演变特征及影响因素进行解析.结果表明：春季白洋淀沉积物环境因子（硝态氮、铵态氮、溶解性总磷、紫外光谱指数、三维荧光光谱指数和荧光组分强度）均呈现显著差异（p<0.05）,后塘采样点的硝态氮和铵态氮含量明显高于西李庄采样点;高通量测序得到23527个OTU,共分为11个主要门类,其中,变形菌门占比最大,达到15.33%~50.59%;α-多样性显示除辛普森指数和覆盖率外,ACE指数、Chao指数及香农指数呈现显著差异（p<0.05）,并且在后塘采样点高于西李庄;主坐标分析表明,后塘与西李庄采样点沉积物细菌群落存在显著差异,与Adonis分析的结果相一致（p<0.01）;RDA分析发现,硝态氮和铵态氮是驱动沉积物细菌群落结构演变的主要环境因素;物种间网络分析显示,春季后塘和西李庄都为8个主要的模块,西李庄正向相关的边所占比例高达84.79%,明显高于后塘的62.82%;西李庄有244个关键物种OTU,也高于后塘的59个关键物种OTU;相关性分析得出两个采样点在主要属和模块上都存在差异,硝态氮、铵态氮、腐殖化指数（HIX）及生物源指数（BIX）是其主要环境因子.综上,通过对该时期养殖区沉积物垂向细菌群落演变特征及影响因素进行研究,可为白洋淀养殖区的污染控制提供技术支持.     

边境贫困县建设用地变化特征与驱动因素——以广西龙州为例

边境贫困县的土地利用、城镇发展与脱贫攻坚事关边境稳定和可持续发展大局。论文选取广西壮族自治区的龙州县为案例研究区域,以2011年和2016年高分影像作为主要数据源,结合社会经济数据,探讨该县近年建设用地时空变化特征及驱动因素。研究结果表明：1）龙州县主要建设用地的增幅达10.08%,其中城镇用地、农村宅基地、独立工矿用地、交通设施用地和旅游设施用地的增量分别占建设用地增量的37.74%、25.48%、20.96%、15.49%和0.33%;2）县城涉及的龙州镇、上龙乡建设用地增加较快,边境口岸城镇的建设用地增速也较快;3）从建设用地扩展模式来看,县城龙州镇为填充式扩张,其他乡镇为边缘式扩张;4）城镇发展提速、农民新房建设、工业园区建设、交通设施建设是建设用地扩张的直接驱动因素,近年来精准扶贫战略的深化落实、边境贸易活动的不断增多,是重要的政策驱动力。研究建议：深化落实贫困县建设用地倾斜政策,针对贫困县的建设用地,在省市层面要明确总量、增加流量,在县域层面要用好增量、优化布局、提高效率,切实助力脱贫攻坚和乡村振兴。     

A pre/post evaluation of fatigue,stress and vigilance amongst commercially licensed truck drivers performing a prolonged driving task

Purpose. The main purpose of this research study was to evaluate changes in fatigue, stress and vigilance amongst commercially licensed truck drivers involved in a prolonged driving task. The secondary purpose was to determine whether a new ergonomic seat could help reduce both physical and cognitive fatigue during a prolonged driving task. Two different truck seats were evaluated: an industrial standard seat and a new truck seat prototype. Methods. Twenty male truck drivers were recruited to attend two testing sessions, on two separate days, with each session randomized for seat design. During each session, participants performed two 10-min simulated driving tasks. Between simulated sessions, participants drove a long-haul truck for 90 min. Fatigue and stress were quantified using a series of questionnaires whereas vigilance was measured using a standardized computer test. Results. Seat interactions had a significant effect on fatigue patterns. Conclusion. The new ergonomic seat design holds potential in improving road safety and vehicle accidents due to fatigue-related accidents.     

Blood alcohol concentration in fatally injured drivers and the efficacy of alcohol policies of the new law on road traffic safety: A retrospective 10-year study in autonomous province of Vojvodina,Republic of Serbia

Objective: The aim of this study was primarily to evaluate inebriated fatally injured drivers (FIDs) according to blood alcohol concentration (BAC) in a 10-year period (2004–2013) in Autonomous Province (AP) of Vojvodina, Republic of Serbia, to analyze the efficacy of alcohol polices in the new law on road traffic safety through changes in the number of inebriated FIDs before and after implementation of the law, as well as to identify factors that influence the occurrence of FIDs with BACs above the legal limit.

Methods: All data for this retrospective study were obtained from the Centre of Forensic Medicine, Toxicology and Molecular Genetics of Clinical Centre of Vojvodina, Novi Sad. Autopsy records for each case included age, gender, BAC, type of vehicle, and date of accident (year, month, and recalculated day of the week). BAC was determined by gas chromatography with flame ionization detection. Statistical analysis was carried out by chi-square tests and Student's t test, with P < .05 as a statistical significance, and multiple binary logistic regression.

Results: Of the 354 inebriated FIDs (60% of all FIDs), the majority had BACs between of 0.031 and 0.3 mg/ml (28%), followed by those with BAC > 2.01 mg/ml (23%). The average BAC of those driving under the influence of alcohol (DUIA) for the whole period was 1.235 ± 1.00 mg/ml and the average number of DUIA/year was 35. Among the total number of FIDs there were significantly more males (93.7%; P < .001) than females (6.3%), though the distribution of intoxicated men and women was not different (P > .05). There was a statistically significant difference in the distribution of sober and inebriated FIDs according to age (P < .001) with the predominance of inebriated FIDs between 21 and 30 years. Although gender and age were found to be significant predictors of BAC above legal limit in FIDs, the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve showed that the model had poor discrimination (ROC = 0.673). Of all observed FIDs, 65 cases per year were attributed to the first 5-year period (2004–2009) and 49 to the second 5-year (2010–2013) period, which indicates that there was no statistically significant decrease in the number of FIDs after implementation of the new law.

Conclusion: The highest number of intoxicated FIDs during the period in AP Vojvodina were mildly and completely inebriated. In the 4-year post-policy period (2010–2013), the number of FIDs and average BAC levels of inebriated FIDs did not significantly change. The abolition of a permissible BAC should be considered.     

基于GMM模型的山东省能源消费主要驱动因素分析研究

山东省是中国的经济大省和人口大省,更是能源消费最大的省份.本文运用广义矩阵模型(GMM)对2000-2014年间山东省能源消费的驱动因素进行分析,结果表明:山东省能源消费总量呈不断上升趋势,各驱动因素中人口规模影响最大,其次为城市化水平和第二产业比重,对外贸易与GDP增长影响较小且都为负效应.因此,依靠相关法律法规合理控制人口增长和城市化进程有利于减少能源消费水平.本文根据最新统计数据深入研究山东省能源消费的主要驱动.