应用系统动力学原理制定小流域经济建设决策

本文应用系统动力学原理，就太平沟小流域资源的开发利用进行了系统分析，绘制了ＳＤ模型流程图，编制了ＳＤ模型程序，经微机模拟仿真，确定了“综合型”发展为该流域资源开发利用方向，为该类型区小而域经济建设及两高一优农业发展提供了科学依据和方法。     

Stochastic bycatch, informational asymmetry, and discarding

The existing literature (i) examines bycatch and discard behavior in a static framework and (ii) treats bycatch as a deterministic process uniform across vessels. Using a dynamic representative agent model in a two-stock resource, this paper explores strategic interactions between a social planner and two groups of harvesters, one of which imposes a stochastic “technological externality” (bycatch) on the other. In addition to limitations on entry and the number of trips taken in each industry, three bycatch control instruments are compared to the unconstrained case: taxes, trip limits, and value-based quotas. Implementation and enforcement costs aside, taxes dominate both types of quota, and value limits outperform trip limits by eliminating one type of discarding. In simulations, relative performance depends upon variance in the bycatch process, differences in the ex vessel prices of stocks, relative efficiency of the harvester types, and fixed costs on the trip and industry margins.     

Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife

Wildlife management is limited by uncontrolled and often unrecognized environmental variation, by limited capabilities to observe and control animal populations, and by a lack of understanding about the biological processes driving population dynamics. In this paper I describe a comprehensive framework for management that includes multiple models and likelihood values to account for structural uncertainty, along with stochastic factors to account for environmental variation, random sampling, and partial controllability. Adaptive optimization is developed in terms of the optimal control of incompletely understood populations, with the expected value of perfect information measuring the potential for improving control through learning. The framework for optimal adaptive control is generalized by including partial observability and non-adaptive, sample-based updating of model likelihoods. Passive adaptive management is derived as a special case of constrained adaptive optimization, representing a potentially efficient suboptimal alternative that nonetheless accounts for structural uncertainty.     

边境贸易发展的环境影响预测及其调控研究——以满洲里市为例

边镜贸易作为我国作为开放的重要组成部分，进展显著。本文在概述我国边境贸易发展所产生的环境问题的基础上，以我国最大的陆边口岸－－满州里市为例，运用灰色预测，动态规划等方法探讨边境贸易与环境保护协调发展的途径。     

城市河段污染控制灰色动态规划的应用

本文探讨了含灰数的城市河段污染控制的灰色动态规划的理论与方法。通过分析城市河段污染控制系统的广义不确定性，将灰数表征这些不确定性，建立了描述城市河段水污染控制的灰色动态规划中广义不确定性的灰数运算、灰数大小的比较及灰动态规划的初步理论和求解方法，通过对淮河蚌埠河段有机污染控制实例研究，说明了水污染控制灰色动态规划问题研究意义和求解方法的实用性。     

Accounting for the Mesoscale Effects on the Air Pollution in Some Cases of Large Sulfur Pollution in Bulgaria or Northern Greece

The objective of the present work is to demonstrate the influence of the meso-scale dynamic phenomena on the larger scale air pollution characteristics. A limited set of episodes with very large sulphur pollution in Bulgaria or Northern Greece is chosen for the study. A 3D quasi-hydrostatic model of the meso-scale dynamics, based on the Businesque approximation (the formulation of Guthman) is used for the purpose. Some numerical experiments for the Balkan Peninsula are carried out under different background (synoptic) conditions. The simulated flow systems outline the main topography effects, typical for the region, such as slope winds, channelling of the air flows or blocking effects. Numerical simulations of the air pollution transport are also carried out, with and without accounting for the meso-scale deformations of the wind field. The comparison of the air pollution characteristics, obtained in both the cases demonstrates that the underlying surface heterogeneity in some of the synoptic situations may have influence not only on the detailed air pollution field in the region, but also on some larger scale pollution characteristics – the total pollution quantity in the air above the countries, the mean surface concentration, the pollution fluxes trough the country boundaries, dry and wet deposition.     

SO2和O3动态胁迫烟草致病的暴露试验

ＳＯ_２和Ｏ_３动态胁迫烟草致病的暴露试验陈锦云，兰志斌，苏珍山，曾军，王阳青（福建龙岩地区烟科所龙岩３６４０００）关键词Ｓ）_２和Ｏ_３；烟草；气候斑点病，动态胁迫暴露ＴＨＥＤＹＮＡＭＩＣＳＴＲＥＳＳＥＸＰＯＳＵＲＥＴＥＳＴＯＮＴＯＢＡＣＣＯＢＬＡＤＥ...     

天津市机动车污染评估方法

依据城市机动车空气污染评价方法确立了天津市空气污染物机动车污染的评价体系。该评价体系具有准确性、先进性和实用性，采用科学的方法估算天津市城区机动车排气污染物的排放浓度及总量对环境空气污染的分担率。科学地给出了天津市现阶段机动车污染的现状及发展趋势，为环境保护决策提供了科学依据。     

化学氧化-混凝法处理废纸再生造纸废水动态实验

采用 70L/h的装置进行化学氧化法处理废纸造纸废水动态实验。结果表明 ,动态实验的处理效果和操作条件与静态实验基本相符。在KMnO4 加量为 10～ 13mg/L、氧化时间为 2 5min、混凝剂A加量为 16 0～ 2 5 0mg/L、混凝剂B为 5 7～ 6 2mg/L时 ,装置出水CODCr降至 6 0～ 70mg/L、CODCr去除率高达 90 5 %～ 93 6 % ,水质优于国家一级排放标准 (GB35 44 92 )。实验得到了废水在沉降器中的沉降曲线     

冬小麦生产力估算方法研究

本文在综述前人工作的基础上,对作物生产力的概念重新进行了阐述,提出作物生产力包括多层次的含义、各层次生产力代表不同的生产水平且限制因子不同,并对各层次生产力进行了定义。从大气-作物-土壤系统出发,探讨了冬小麦的生长发育及产量形成与各环境因子、能量投入之间的定量关系,采用动态模拟和统计分析相结合的方法,利用dBASEⅢ和BASIC语言,建立起了冬小麦生长发育及生产力形成的动态模拟软件,该软件可以根据不同需要对不同地区的冬小麦干物质累积、叶面积变化及土壤水分平衡进行计算,并可计算各层次的生产力。