Water quality characteristics and assessment of Yongding New River by improved comprehensive water quality identification index based on game theory

The Yongding New River is essential for the water supplies of Tianjin. To date, there is no comprehensive report that assesses the year-round water quality of the Yongding New River Main stream. Moreover, little attention has been given to determining a combined weight for improving the traditional comprehensive water quality identification index (ICWQII) by the game theory. Seven water quality parameters were investigated monthly along the main stream of the Yongding New River from May 2018 to April 2019. Organic contaminants and nitrogen pollution were mainly caused by point sources pollution, and the total phosphorus mainly by non-point source pollution. Dramatic spatio-temporal variations of water quality parameters were jointly caused by different pollutant sources and hydrometeorological factors. In terms of this study, an improved comprehensive water quality identification index (ICWQII) based on entropy weight or variation coefficient and traditional CWQII underestimated the water qualities, and an ICWQII based on the superstandard multiple method overvalued the assessments. By contrast, water qualities assessments done with an ICWQII based on the game theory matched perfectly with the practical situation. The ICWQII based on game theory proposed in this study takes into account not only the degree of disorder and variation of water quality data, but also the influence of standard-exceeded pollution indicators, whose results are relatively reasonable. All findings and the ICWQII based on game theory can provide scientific support for decisions related to the water environment management of the Yongding New River and other waters.     

污水厂尾水受纳河段沉积物磷形态及释放风险效应

2018年10月～2019年4月,在合肥市板桥河的蔡田铺污水厂尾水排放口上、下游河道4个采样点位,按照每两个月采样一次的频率采集沉积物和上覆水样,分析尾水排放对河道沉积物磷形态及磷平衡浓度(EPC_0)的影响,解析沉积物磷平衡浓度及磷释放风险的外源碳(乙酸钠)响应.结果表明,板桥河水体沉积物磷素受污水厂尾水影响较大,排放口上、下游沉积物总磷均值分别为789. 39 mg·kg~(-1)和854. 41 mg·kg~(-1),生物有效性磷均值分别为157. 19 mg·kg~(-1)和173. 37 mg·kg~(-1); 4个采样点的EPC_0值大小排序为:SP1 SP2 SP3 CP,表明尾水排入提高了河流EPC_0,致使河流沉积物磷释放风险增加;外源碳的添加明显降低沉积物的EPC_0值,特别是紧邻排放口的SP1下降最为显著,表明外源碳添加对降低沉积物磷释放风险有效.     

粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用Ⅱ.粮食生产潜力短期预测理论、模型及其应用

粮食生产潜力短期预测结果可以检验粮食中长期生产潜力预测的准确性和为国家提供制定粮食生产战略的科学依据。粮食生产潜力短期预测理论即“趋势-波动理论”,它建立在粮食或作物“现状生产潜力”概念和“天-人-地概念模型”基础上,预测模型为最佳移动步长条件下的多年单产移动平均趋势模型,实际预测时采用系统预测方法。11个研究案例预测的平均误差为0.77％,最大误差为2.99％,预测精度高。本研究初步结论是：粮食生产潜力短期预测理论和模型是科学和实用的。     

粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用Ⅳ.粮食估产理论、模型及其应用

粮食估产的“通道-概率”理论：把属于最近通道的历年来的产量划分为5个气候年型通道,即丰产年、偏丰年、平产年、偏欠年、欠产年;计算产量出现在5个气候年型中的频率作为概率使用,估产年的初始估产值等于预测年各通道内平均产量与概率之积的和;估产值等于初始估产值与气候年型修正参数之积,专家根据当年气候条件和作物长势实时确定修正参数。预报单元为全国、省和县。应用结果表明：国家尺度上不需要修正,省和县级尺度需要气候年型参数修正;预测误差在3％以内;所述估产理论严谨、方法简单,参数少,参数来自原始数据本身和专家经验,易于推广使用。     

重庆灰霾治理试点工作中的政企动态博弈分析

针对重庆市挥发性有机物整治试点工作中面临的与企业博弈的实际问题,设定模型边界条件,建立基于完全信息的动态博弈分析模型,通过逆推归纳法分析博弈不同阶段下参与企业与政府的理性策略选择,求解此完全信息动态博弈模型的子博弈精炼纳什均衡并获得该情况下的博弈双方最终支付。研究表明,提高“许诺的可信性”和“威胁的可信性”是动态博弈的核心问题,通过交出决定权、切断沟通等多种方式可破解VOC试点博弈僵局。     

滑坡灰色系统预测模型及其应用

本文在分析目前国内外滑坡灰色预测预报模型基础上，提出了一种新的滑坡灰色系统预测预报模型。该模型相对於过去常用的灰色模型考虑了更多的影响因素，有更高的可信度。它不仅可用作滑波的临滑预报，还可用于般监测信息的预测。     

双积分政策下异质汽车制造商的产量博弈均衡

文章通过对双积分政策下汽车制造商的产量博弈均衡进行建模分析,研究了双积分政策对企业层面异质制造商的产量决策和利润的影响,以及对产业层面新能源汽车和燃油汽车总产量及总产值的影响。研究结果表明:(1)新能源汽车产业向均衡演进过程中,新能源汽车制造商仍具有一定的发展潜力,但未来发展的中坚力量依靠优势燃油汽车制造商,劣势燃油汽车制造商可能会通过提高燃油经济性发展为优势燃油汽车制造商,从而提高优势燃油汽车制造商的燃油汽车总产量,降低劣势燃油汽车制造商的燃油汽车总产量。(2)双积分政策参数对异质制造商产量决策和利润的影响不同:新能源汽车制造商能够从中受益,而劣势燃油汽车制造商面临危机,转危为安的可能方式包括降低平均燃料消耗量和积极探索新能源汽车生产的可能性。对于优势燃油汽车制造商来说,双积分政策的收紧可能导致其转向燃油汽车市场,规制NEV积分价格上限有利于引导优势燃油汽车制造商转向新能源汽车市场。(3)促进新能源汽车规模增长的参数,可能导致总产值下降,政策调整应将规模增长和产值增长作为双目标,避免单一目标可能导致的市场波动。(4)随着双积分政策的收紧,可预见的新能源汽车积分比例要求提高以及平均燃料消耗量标准趋严,将刺激新能源汽车积分需求提升,缓解新能源汽车积分供需失衡问题。考虑到目前NEV积分价格处于低位,合理降低新能源乘用车车型积分有助于限制NEV积分供给。     

Identifying motivations and barriers to minimising household food waste

The amount of food discarded by UK households is substantial and, to a large extent, avoidable. Furthermore, such food waste has serious environmental consequences. If household food waste reduction initiatives are to be successful they will need to be informed by people's motivations and barriers to minimising household food waste. This paper reports a qualitative study of the thoughts, feelings and experiences of 15 UK household food purchasers, based on semi-structured interviews. Two core categories of motives to minimise household food waste were identified: (1) waste concerns and (2) doing the ‘right’ thing. A third core category illustrated the importance of food management skills in empowering people to keep household food waste to a minimum. Four core categories of barriers to minimising food waste were also identified: (1) a ‘good’ provider identity; (2) minimising inconvenience; (3) lack of priority; and (4) exemption from responsibility. The wish to avoid experiencing negative emotions (such as guilt, frustration, annoyance, embarrassment or regret) underpinned both the motivations and the barriers to minimising food waste. Findings thus reveal potentially conflicting personal goals which may hinder existing food waste reduction attempts.     

纳米银与微塑料在模拟垃圾填埋柱中的共迁移特征

以模拟垃圾填埋柱和人工配制渗滤液,探讨了纳米银（AgNPs）和微塑料（MPs）在垃圾填埋场中的迁移行为.结果发现,无论是单体系还是二元体系,随着填埋时间增长,AgNPs和MPs颗粒在渗滤液中稳定性增强,在填埋场中迁移能力增大,可能导致填埋中晚期有更多的污染颗粒随渗滤液流出填埋场.当AgNPs和MPs共存时,相对于单体系促进了AgNPs的迁移而轻微地抑制了MPs的迁移.结合DLVO理论和胶体过滤理论分析,一方面是由于流动性更高的MPs可作为AgNPs的载体,同时与AgNPs竞争固相介质上的吸附位点,从而促进AgNPs的迁移.另一方面,共存的AgNPs降低了MPs颗粒的表面负电荷使其稳定性减弱,并通过预沉积在固相介质上提供额外的MPs沉积位点,从而抑制MPs的迁移.     

基于多因素信息融合的城市供水安全评价系统

为了确定城市供水安全状态，提出1种基于多因素信息融合思想的城市供水安全评价方法。以城市供水安全指标体系为基础，建立供水安全指标与基本概率指派函数焦元的对应关系；采用组合权重确定各评价指标的权重值作为对指标证据的支持程度，通过加权合成方法得到各因素定量、定性信息的基本概率指派函数值，利用证据理论的Dempster组合规则进行因素融合。研究结果表明:以郑州市供水安全指标体系为例，在进行多指标信息融合时与解决证据冲突的融合方法计算结果相同，郑州市2006——2008年城市供水处于不安全状态，2008年以后安全等级逐步升高且趋于稳定状态，可以预测出在未来一段时间郑州市的供水处于安全状态。