开放源类物料中微粒子排放估算模型的建立

利用实验室微粒子控制模拟试验装置,采用开放源类粉体物料自由下落溢出随机粉尘的实验研究方法,研究了济南市开放源类粉体物料自由下落过程中微粒子排放规律;在一定动力因素条件下,探讨了物料种类、粒度组成,物料含水率,环境空气湿度,自由下落中质量流量等因素对物料排放率的影响;通过数学归纳和模型化处理,建立了开放源类粉体物料自由下落过程中大气微粒子排放估算的数学模型;通过对实验数据进行回归分析后认为,粒径、含水率是对排放率影响最大的因素,质量流量是对排放率影响最小的因素。经试验验证,计算值与试验值基本一致。所获结论,对开放源类物料在转运、装卸、堆放等操作过程中大气微粒子的排放估算和综合防治具有重要的参考价值。     

基于“径流-地类”参数的非点源氮磷负荷估算方法

东江作为广东省重要的饮用水源,其上游农业集水区非点源氮磷流失量备受关注.因此,本文以东江上游上莞河小流域为研究区,利用2011年的集水区水质监测数据,在平均浓度法及输出系数法的基础上,构建基于"径流-地类"参数的非点源氮磷负荷计算式,其径流、地类参数分别通过校正后的SCS模型和土地利用现状图获取,并分别对上莞河流域及流域各地类的非点源氮磷流失量进行估算.研究结果表明,汛期上莞河流域氮磷流失量主要来源于非点源污染,其非点源氮、磷流失量分别占氮、磷流失总量的97.32%、98.05%.坡度对流域非点源氮磷流失影响较小,地类是影响非点源氮磷输出的重要因素.构建的计算式能较好地估算非点源氮、磷负荷量,在次暴雨尺度非点源氮、磷输出量模拟精度分别为84.78%、81.06%.2011年度上莞河流域非点源氮、磷输出量分别为48923.4、7189.3 kg,耕地、居民地分别是非点源氮、磷输出的关键源区,其非点源氮、磷输出量分别占流域非点源氮、磷输出总量的84.20%、58.54%.     

Regional impervious surface estimation: an urban heat island application

This paper describes a GIS-based estimation method that can be used to forecast future amounts of impervious surface as a mitigation measure for urban heat island effect in a metropolitan region. The method is unique because it employs a regression model that links the existing amount of impervious surface to population and employment at the census tract level. This approach provides a means to forecast future amounts of impervious surface based on projected population and employment. The method also includes a detailed analysis of high-resolution aerial photography to divide impervious surfaces into different categories. Subdividing impervious surfaces is necessary to evaluate potential urban heat island mitigation policies for different types of impervious surface. The analysis here shows that the impervious surface in the metropolitan Atlanta region will increase to 2638 km2 2. “The Albedo is defined as the hemispherical reflectivity averaged over the solar spectrum. A perfect reflector has a = 1, and a perfect absorber has a = 0” (Pomerantz et al. 1999 Pomerantz, M. 1999. Reflective surfaces for cooler buildings and cities. Philosophical magazine B, 79: 1457–1476. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar], p. 1458). View all notes in 2030, an increase of 45% from 2000. The most common type of impervious surface is dark-coloured pavement. Within this study area, the analyses showed that two-thirds of impervious surfaces are dark. Replacing dark pavement with light pavement materials, therefore, represents an important opportunity to mitigate the urban heat island effect in the Atlanta region.     

Evaluation of a Watershed Model for Estimating Daily Flow Using Limited Flow Measurements1

Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was evaluated for estimation of continuous daily flow based on limited flow measurements in the Upper Oyster Creek (UOC) watershed. SWAT was calibrated against limited measured flow data and then validated. The Nash‐Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and mean relative error values of daily flow estimations were 0.66 and 15% for calibration, and 0.56 and 4% for validation, respectively. Also, further evaluation of the model’s estimation of flow at multiple locations was conducted with parametric paired t‐test and nonparametric sign test at a 95% confidence level. Among the five main stem stations, four stations were statistically shown to have good agreement between predicted and measured flows. SWAT underestimated the flow of the fifth main stem station possibly because of the existence of complex flood control measures near to the station. SWAT estimated the daily flow at one tributary station well, but with relatively large errors for the other two tributaries. The spatial pattern of predicted flows matched the measured ones well. Overall, it was concluded from the graphical comparisons and statistical analyses of the model results that SWAT was capable of reproducing continuous daily flows based on limited flow data as is the case in the UOC watershed.     

Influence of temporally variable groundwater flow conditions on point measurements and contaminant mass flux estimations

Monitoring of contaminant concentrations, e.g., for the estimation of mass discharge or contaminant degradation rates, often is based on point measurements at observation wells. In addition to the problem, that point measurements may not be spatially representative, a further complication may arise due to the temporal dynamics of groundwater flow, which may cause a concentration measurement to be not temporally representative. This paper presents results from a numerical modeling study focusing on temporal variations of the groundwater flow direction. “Measurements” are obtained from point information representing observation wells installed along control planes using different well frequencies and configurations. Results of the scenario simulations show that temporally variable flow conditions can lead to significant temporal fluctuations of the concentration and thus are a substantial source of uncertainty for point measurements. Temporal variation of point concentration measurements may be as high as the average concentration determined, especially near the plume fringe, even when assuming a homogeneous distribution of the hydraulic conductivity. If a heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field is present, the concentration variability due to a fluctuating groundwater flow direction varies significantly within the control plane and between the different realizations. Determination of contaminant mass fluxes is also influenced by the temporal variability of the concentration measurement, especially for large spacings of the observation wells. Passive dosimeter sampling is found to be appropriate for evaluating the stationarity of contaminant plumes as well as for estimating average concentrations over time when the plume has fully developed. Representative sampling has to be performed over several periods of groundwater flow fluctuation. For the determination of mass fluxes at heterogeneous sites, however, local fluxes, which may vary considerably along a control plane, have to be accounted for. Here, dosimeter sampling in combination with time integrated local water flux measurements can improve mass flux estimates under dynamic flow conditions.     

Estimating the variance in before-after studies

Problem

To simplify the computation of the variance in before-after studies, it is generally assumed that the observed crash data for each entity (or observation) are Poisson distributed. Given the characteristics of this distribution, the observed value (x_i) for each entity is implicitly made equal to its variance. However, the variance should be estimated using the conditional properties of this observed value (defined as a random variable), that is, f(x_i|μ_i), since the mean of the observed value is in fact unknown.

Method

Parametric and non-parametric bootstrap methods were investigated to evaluate the conditional assumption using simulated and observed data.

Results

The results of this study show that observed data should not be used as a substitute for the variance, even if the entities are assumed to be Poisson distributed. Consequently, the estimated variance for the parameters under study in traditional before-after studies is likely to be underestimated.

Conclusions

The proposed methods offer more accurate approaches for estimating the variance in before-after studies.     

Critical Steps for Continuing Advancement of Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology in the Nile River Basin1

Gebremichael, Mekonnen, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, and Menberu M. Bitew, 2010. Critical Steps for Continuing Advancement of Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology in the Nile River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):361-366. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00428.x. Abstract: Given the increasingly higher resolution and data accessibility, satellite precipitation products could be useful for hydrological application in the Nile River Basin, which is characterized by lack of reasonably dense hydrological in situ sensors and lack of access to the existing dataset. However, in the absence of both extreme caution and research results for the Nile basin, the satellite rainfall (SR) products may not be used, or may even be used erroneously. We identify two steps that are critical to enhance the value of SR products for hydrological applications in the Nile basin. The first step is to establish representative validation sites in the Nile basin. The validation site will help to quantify the errors in the different kinds of SR products, which will be used to select the best products for the Nile basin, include the errors in decision making, and design strategies to minimize the errors. Using rainfall measurements collected from the unprecedented high-density rain gauge network over a small region within the Nile basin, we indicate that SR estimates could be subject to significant errors, and quantification of estimation errors by way of establishing validation sites is critically important in order to use the SR products. The second step is to identify the degree of hydrologic model complexity required to obtain more accurate hydrologic simulation results for the Nile basin when using SR products as input. The level of model complexity may depend on basin size and SR algorithm, and further research is needed to spell out this dependence for the Nile basin.     

上海浦东国际机场飞机尾气排放对机场附近空气质量的影响

统计2012年10月和11月浦东机场飞机机型和航班架次，根据各类飞机起降的污染物排放设计工作参数，估算出2012年浦东机场飞机起降时排放的NO2、SO2、CO和HC的估算值。利用浦东新区13个空气监测子站二氧化氮和二氧化硫数据绘制等值线图。结果显示，机场所在的江镇点位和祝桥点位二氧化氮浓度变化受飞机影响很大，而飞机排放的二氧化硫对两个点位的影响可以忽略不计。建议采用改进飞机滑行路线、探讨征收飞机碳排放税等措施减少飞机尾气排放对空气质量的影响。     

Estimating marine biogeochemical rates of the carbonate pH system—A Kalman filter tested

Oxygen (O₂), nitrate (NO₃), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) or pCO₂, and pH or total alkalinity (TA), are useful indices of marine chemical, physical and biological processes operating on varying time-scales. Although these properties are increasingly being monitored at high frequency, they have not been extensively used for studying ecosystem dynamics. We test whether we can estimate time-evolving biogeochemical rates (e.g. primary production, respiration, calcification and carbonate dissolution, and nitrification) from synthetic high frequency time-series of O₂, NO₃, DIC, pCO₂, TA or pH. More specifically, a Kalman filter has been implemented in a very simplified biogeochemical model describing the dynamics of O₂, NO₃, DIC and TA and linking the concentration data to biogeochemical fluxes. Different sets of concentration data are assimilated and biogeochemical rates are estimated. The frequency of assimilation required to get acceptable results is investigated and is compared with the frequency of sampling in the field or in controlled experimental settings.Smoothing of the data to remove data noise before assimilation improves the estimation of the biogeochemical rates. The best estimated rates are obtained when assimilating O₂, NO₃ and TA although the assimilation of DIC instead of TA also gives satisfactory results. In case pH or pCO₂ is assimilated rather than DIC or TA, the linearization of the (now nonlinear) observation equation introduces perturbations and the Kalman filter behaves suboptimal. We conclude that, given the resolution of data required, the tool has potential to estimate biogeochemical rates of the carbonate system under controlled settings.     

MODIS Biophysical States and NEXRAD Precipitation in a Statistical Evaluation of Antecedent Moisture Condition and Streamflow1

Abstract: The potential of remotely sensed time series of biophysical states of landscape to characterize soil moisture condition antecedent to radar estimates of precipitation is assessed in a statistical prediction model of streamflow in a 1,420 km² watershed in south‐central Texas, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) time series biophysical products offer significant opportunities to characterize and quantify hydrologic state variables such as land surface temperature (LST) and vegetation state and status. Together with Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) precipitation estimates for the period 2002 through 2005, 16 raw and deseasoned time series of LST (day and night), vegetation indices, infrared reflectances, and water stress indices were linearly regressed against observed watershed streamflow on an eight‐day aggregated time period. Time offsets of 0 (synchronous with streamflow event), 8, and 16 days (leading streamflow event) were assessed for each of the 16 parameters to evaluate antecedent effects. The model results indicated a reasonable correlation (r² = 0.67) when precipitation, daytime LST advanced 16 days, and a deseasoned moisture stress index were regressed against log‐transformed streamflow. The estimation model was applied to a validation period from January 2006 through March 2007, a period of 12 months of regional drought and base‐flow conditions followed by three months of above normal rainfall and a flood event. The model resulted in a Nash‐Sutcliffe estimation efficiency (E) of 0.45 for flow series (in log‐space) for the full 15‐month period, ?0.03 for the 2006 drought condition period, and 0.87 for the 2007 wet condition period. The overall model had a relative volume error of ?32%. The contribution of parameter uncertainties to model discrepancy was evaluated.