对华北GPS监测区近期地壳应变连续分布的估计

直接利用华北ＧＰＳ监测网各个测点的位移观测值,借助高斯型位移协方差函数通过最小二乘配置建立连续分布的位移函数,并根据应变与位移的偏导关系,对华北ＧＰＳ监测区１９９２～１９９５年、１９９５～１９９６年最大剪应变及面膨胀连续分布进行估算,得到其应变场动态图像。     

Explaining Agricultural Expansion, Resource Booms and Growth in Latin America

The following paper examines the main factors determining long-run agricultural land expansion in Latin America compared to other tropical regions. Given the importance of natural resource-based sectors for most economies in Latin America, the impact of price-induced "resource booms" on economic growth in the region is explored. In addition, the paper examines whether there is an inherent "boom and bust" pattern of economic development associated with agricultural land expansion in Latin America, and the extent to which economic policies in the region exacerbate this problem. The paper concludes by examining the role of targeted policies in alleviating the structural obstacles to Latin American agricultural and economic development.     

膨胀土地基中大比例模型桩浸水试验研究

通过对埋设在膨胀土地基中的一试桩的长时间浸水试验观测，模拟了自然降雨气候条件下单桩位移、沿桩身轴力、侧摩阻力分布、地基胀缩及其时间变化等基桩一系列工作性状和桩-土共同作用规律。试验结果显示：桩顶位移呈现出先下沉后回升并最后趋于稳定的3阶段特征；桩身全长受拉，轴力沿桩身分布呈“波峰”形态。基桩的最大轴力位于桩的中下部，轴力峰值历经由小到大的过程；中性点在浸水过程中，其位置有从桩下部上移的现象；桩侧摩阻力与桩端阻力荷载分担比随时间呈现出先减小后增大并渐趋稳定的3阶段特征。研究结果对膨胀土地基中的桩基设计和施工提供了理论依据。     

Homegardens as a Multi-functional Land-Use Strategy in Sri Lanka with Focus on Carbon Sequestration

This paper explores the concept of homegardens and their potential functions as strategic elements in land-use planning, and adaptation and mitigation to climate change in Sri Lanka. The ancient and locally adapted agroforestry system of homegardens is presently estimated to occupy nearly 15 % of the land area in Sri Lanka and is described in the scientific literature to offer several ecosystem services to its users; such as climate regulation, protection against natural hazards, enhanced land productivity and biological diversity, increased crop diversity and food security for rural poor and hence reduced vulnerability to climate change. Our results, based on a limited sample size, indicate that the homegardens also store significant amount of carbon, with above ground biomass carbon stocks in dry zone homegardens (n = 8) ranging from 10 to 55 megagrams of carbon per hectare (Mg C ha⁻¹) with a mean value of 35 Mg C ha⁻¹, whereas carbon stocks in wet zone homegardens (n = 4) range from 48 to 145 Mg C ha⁻¹ with a mean value of 87 Mg C ha⁻¹. This implies that homegardens may contain a significant fraction of the total above ground biomass carbon stock in the terrestrial system in Sri Lanka, and from our estimates its share has increased from almost one-sixth in 1992 to nearly one-fifth in 2010. In the light of current discussions on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), the concept of homegardens in Sri Lanka provides interesting aspects to the debate and future research in terms of forest definitions, setting reference levels, and general sustainability.     

泰州市建设用地扩展规律与格局演化研究

以多时相Landsat、TM/ETM卫星影像为数据源,运用GIS软件提取泰州市建设用地1988～2008年5个时相的用地信息,运用扩展强度指数、扩展速度指数、空间自相关等方法分析泰州市建设用地扩展时空特征和演化规律。结果表明:(1)泰州建设用地扩展经历了缓慢扩展、中速扩展、缓慢扩展3个阶段,显示了建设用地逐步走向集约利用的趋势;(2)在分析泰州建设用地不同扩展阶段的基础上,发现泰州建设用地扩展模式正处于从点状扩展向点轴扩展转变阶段,并出现了网络化扩展的端倪;(3)运用空间自相关分析了泰州建设用地扩展热点演化过程,发现扩展热点呈现跳跃迁移的特征,热点区与冷点区出现交替演化,Moran散点图体现了泰州市建设用地扩展处于空间极化的状态,外围城镇受中心城镇增长极带动发展的扩展模式。     

安徽省中小型城市用地扩展研究——以滁州市为例

以滁州市1966年的地形图，1978年、1987年、1995年、2000年及2006年的遥感影像为数据源，提取滁州市6个时段的建成区面积对其用地扩展进行了研究。结果表明，滁州市建成区面积在1966-2006年间面积增加了7．84倍，扩展速度经历了先快后慢的过程；发展方向以东南方向为主，40年间城市中心向东、南方向分别迁移了1084m和1940m对揭示安徽省中小型城市用地的发展特征具有一定意义。     

南京市2000~2014年城市建设用地变化及驱动因子研究

基于土地利用模型测度2000~2014年南京市城市建设用地的动态变化，再运用典型相关分析、主成分分析及逐步回归分析组合的偏最小二乘回归法对南京市城市建设用地的驱动因子进行分析。结果表明：（1）2000~2014年南京市城市建设用地面积总体上呈上升趋势，年均增长率为11.73%；（2）南京市用地结构信息熵呈波动下降趋势，城市建设用地系统结构性增强，但是用地扩展的综合效益趋降；（3）人口增长、道路扩展、投资水平提高及文化产业发展等能够较好的解释南京市城市建设用地的增长，这4类因子对城市建设用地变化具有正向作用；（4）逐步线性回归结果表明，园林绿地面积的增加相对其他因子对南京市建设用地规模增长的作用最大，其次是道路长度和公路里程。     

基于圈层建设用地密度分析的中国主要城市扩张的时空特征

基于圈层建设用地密度分析,提出了城市扩张核心度指数;通过计算城市扩张核心度指数和城市扩张强度指数,分析了1990~2010年中国27个主要城市距城市中心不同距离区域的城市扩张的时空模式。研究发现:(1)1990~2010年,大部分城市核心度指数不断降低,城市空间结构变化与国家区域政策密不可分,呈现明显的区域特征。1990~2000年东部沿海地区城市核心度值减少幅度较大,2000~2010年则是东北部和中西部城市降低明显。总体上看,西部和东北部城市的核心度指数要高于东部和中部的城市,结构更加紧凑。(2)城市扩张最活跃的地方总是出现在核心区边界附近,并不断向外推移。(3)城市的形态与城市的发展阶段密切相关。1990~2000年,一线城市扩张的强度和范围远大于其他城市;2000~2010年,二三线城市的扩张强度和范围明显增加。经济比较发达的城市,建设用地的扩张逐渐由单中心扩展向多中心协同发展转变,而经济相对落后西部城市和东北部城市,城市结构比较紧凑,保持着单中心的城市形态。     

The legacy of large dams in the United States

The sustainability of large dams has been questioned on several grounds. One aspect that has been less explored is that the development of dams and reservoirs often enables agricultural expansion and urban growth, which in turn increase water consumption. As such, dam development influences, while being influenced by, the spatial and temporal distribution of both supply and demand of water resources. In this paper, we explore the interplay between large dams, patterns of population growth and agricultural expansion in the United States over the past two centuries. Based on a large-scale analysis of spatial and temporal trends, we identify three distinct phases, in which different processes dominated the interplay. Then, we focus on agricultural water use in the Southwest region (Arizona, California and Nevada) and explore chicken-and-egg dynamics where water supply partly meets and partly fuels water demand. Lastly, we show that the legacy of dams in the United States consists of a lock-in condition characterized by high levels of water consumption, especially in the Southwest, which leads to severe water crises and groundwater overexploitation when droughts occur.     

基于RS的成都市城市扩张监测与分析

随着21世纪人口和经济的快速增长,城市扩张速度明显加快,如何快速获取城市的扩张信息并进行分析,对城市的规划和可持续发展具有十分重要的意义。采用监督分类方法对3个时相的成都市建成区进行提取,并分析比较。在此基础上,结合相关的统计数据分析,得出成都市城区的扩张与经济发展密切相关,人口增长与基础设施完善也起到了重要的驱动作用。