A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Growth:A Case Study for Jinan Municipality,China

China is experiencing a process of rapid industrialization and urbanization at the cost of agricultural land and environment,particularly in the costal areas. This study takes Jinan as a case presenting a time-series analysis of urban land expansion from 313 to 2003. The results show that the urban expansion of Jinan city mainly took place in the last 100 years, especially after the economic reform in 1978. Social development and economic growth,urban population growth and migration policies were factors driving the urban land expansion. Urban sprawl resulted in a disappearance of wetlands and a great loss of agricultural land, and over-pumping of ground water that led to disappearance of the city‘s feature,namely “the city of springs“.     

Ecological Impacts of Chile's Neoliberal Policies, with Special Emphasis on Agroecosystems

Although Chile has been touted for developing a broad market liberalization and opening to the international economy, evidence is emerging that such neoliberal economic policies are dramatically impacting biodiversity and the natural resource base. This paper examines the evidence on the plundering of forestry and fishery resources and the damming and pollution of aquatic ecosystems. Although it may be argued that economic liberalization policies have been effective in reallocating agricultural resources toward more competitive activities, the ecological toll imposed by the expansion of export-led modern agriculture has been heavy. An effective agricultural development strategy in Chile should confront such ecological costs and should promote alternatives to high input agriculture.     

Amazonian forest loss and the long reach of China’s influence

This paper explores China’s role in deforestation in Latin America. Brazil’s Amazon region contains vast natural resources including land, timber, minerals and hydroelectric potential. China’s strong economy and large demands relative to domestic supplies of these resources mean that China has become Brazil’s largest trading partner, primarily for natural resources. The paper examines how China influences deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia in a variety of ways, including through the direct influence of Chinese enterprises through land purchases and other mechanisms. This paper finds that the rapid rise in exports of soy and beef products to China are two of the major drivers of Amazonian deforestation in Brazil. The paper further argues that Chinese purchases of agricultural and forest land and Chinese imports of commodities such as timber and aluminum also cause environmental impacts in Amazonia. Chinese financing and investment in Amazonian infrastructure such as railways and mineral processing facilities have additional impacts.     

A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Growth: A Case Study for Jinan Municipality,China

Abstract

China is experiencing a process of rapid industrialization and urbanization at the cost of agricultural land and environment, particularly in the costal areas. This study takes Jinan as a case presenting a time-series analysis of urban land expansion from 313 to 2003. The results show that the urban expansion of Jinan city mainly took place in the last 100 years, especially after the economic reform in 1978. Social development and economic growth, urban population growth and migration policies were factors driving the urban land expansion. Urban sprawl resulted in a disappearance of wetlands and a great loss of agricultural land, and over-pumping of ground water that led to disappearance of the city's feature, namely “the city of springs”.     

Study on Dynamic Mechanism of Urban Expansion： A Case Study of Shandong Province

This paper aims at studying the dynamic mechanism of urban expansion and its role. Based on the economic model of urban spatial structure and applying panel data in Shandong Province, the paper concludes. Economic growth and transition of economic structure have played the most powerful role in urban expansion. An increase in population helps the core to extend. Increasing agricultural productivity can provide a countervailing force. An increase in transportation costs will limit urban expansion. An increase in the marginal productivity of land in housing production will increase urban expansion. Fiscal and taxation policies also have encouraged the extensive shift of cultivated land into build-up area. This paper also suggests that if high rate increasing GDP is needed, the urban core will continue to expand. The government should take measures to improve the rapid growth of the city.     

鲁西北地区农户家庭农地规模经营行为分析

本文根据1986-2001年鲁西北地区农村固定观察点陵县和阳谷县2个村共80户（1993年以前为120户、115户或141户）跟踪观察资料，对鲁西北地区农户经济活动行为及不同规律农户分布、农户家庭纯收入水平、农地生产率等加以分析，研究结果和结论可为区域农业和农村经济可持续发展有关政策的制定提供科学依据。     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

黄土高原半干旱区雨水利用与可持续农业发展研究

黄土高原半干旱区是一个特定的生态类型和重要的农业区域 ,严重的水土流失和频繁的干旱是该区农业可持续发展的主要制约因素。本文在分析雨水利用可行性的基础上 ,提出了农业发展的有效模式———集水型生态农业 ,它不仅适应于当地的雨水等自然资源条件 ,更适应生产力发展水平 ,易于在农户水平上推广 ,并且具有显著的经济、生态和社会效益 ,是实现该区农业可持续发展的战略性举措 ,同时也为“退耕还林 (草 )”开发战略的实施提供了一个思路     

中国城市建设用地扩张与经济增长重心迁移与脱钩关系研究

协调经济增长与土地资源利用关系是经济发展提质增速及可持续城市建设的关键，为探索城市建设用地扩张与经济增长的时空演变特征及其耦合趋势，运用重心模型、Tapio弹性指数对建设用地扩张与经济增长的空间耦合关系与脱钩状态进行测度，并构建计量模型，检验了经济、社会、政策等因素对城市扩张的影响。结果表明：（1）中国经济与建设用地规模保持双增长态势，中西部地区近年来建设用地扩张更加明显，经济和建设用地重心均呈现西南方向迁移，但空间耦合性逐渐减弱；（2）中国经济与建设用地脱钩关系不断恶化，脱钩状态分布格局变化明显，东部地区脱钩状况逐渐改善；（3）社会经济因素是城市扩张的关键推动力，政策、产业集聚等也在一定程度上促进城市扩张。未来要重点加强对中西部地区城市土地扩张的管控，对于东部地区而言，则要在经济转型的过程中寻求产业转型与土地利用转型的契合点，追求城市的精明增长。     

长株潭城市群农业用地损失的动态模拟研究

对城市群发展过程中的农业用地损失进行动态模拟研究,有助于准确归纳其损失的趋势和机制,为农业用地保护规划的制定提供依据。以长株潭城市群为例,通过遥感影像图的收集与处理以及空间数据库、方格网系统、十二向玫瑰图和三维山丘图的构建,对城市群扩张和农业用地损失的过程进行动态模拟,通过离心模型归纳导致农业用地损失的动力机制,并对2020、2025年的农业用地损失情况进行预测。结果显示:城镇建成区扩张是长株潭城市群农业用地损失最主要的原因。伴随着城市群空间结构的演变,农业用地损失经历了"中心区主导—中心区与产业园区共同主导—连绵式损失"的过程。如不加以控制,至2025年,一个总面积达1 500 km~2,呈连绵状分布的超大型都市区将在长株潭城市群形成,现有中心城区、产业园区之间的农业用地将逐渐消失殆尽,从而造成难以弥补的环境损失。从空间规划上优化城市群的空间结构和发展方式,从政策法规上对侵占行为进行严格控制,是保护农业用地的关键所在。研究有望为我国城市群环境保护规划的制定提供方法论参考。     

武汉市城乡建设用地时空演变及驱动机制研究——基于城乡统筹视角

基于城乡统筹视角，运用GIS空间技术、土地利用动态模型和多元回归分析，研究武汉市1996~2009年城乡建设用地数量结构变化、空间格局演变及驱动机制，是土地利用变化（LUCC）研究的重要内容之一，对区域城乡建设统筹规划及城乡社会经济统筹发展具有现实指导意义。结果显示：(1)研究期内武汉市城乡建设用地整体规模扩大，城镇建设用地比重上升，农村居民点用地比重下降；城市与建制镇扩张较快，主要源自对农用地的占用及独立工矿用地、农村居民点整理。(2)外城区城-乡建设用地数量、结构变化及类型转换特征对武汉市城乡建设用地变化起主导作用。(3)人口变化、经济增长、居民生活水平提高及政策等因素对武汉市内、外城区城-乡建设用地格局的驱动作用具有明显的区域差异和城乡差异     

Institutions,policies and soil degradation:theoretical examinations and case studies in Southeast China

Southeast China is one of the severe soil degradation areas in China. This paper theoretically examines the impact of some important institutional arrangements and policies, like land management pattern, the rural off-farm employment, land property change and changes in prices of agricultural products, on soil degradation in this area. It further conducts some case studies to confirm the potential relationship between the institutions & policies and soil degradation, applying the surveyed and the second hand data. The paper at last makes some conclusions and proposes some suggestions on how to promote soil conservation by improving the ways of policy decision-making and the effects of policies on land use.     

城市建设用地扩张的区域差异及其驱动因素

中国城市建设用地规模随着工业化、城镇化的不断发展而日益剧增。受经济、社会等诸多驱动因素影响,各地建设用地扩张在时间维度、空间维度都存在明显的区域差异,对上述问题进行全面考察,有助于理清建设用地扩张的机理,促进土地集约、节约利用。将城市建设用地扩张的影响因素分为政府推动和市场拉动两个方面,采用基尼系数及基于半对数回归方程的Shapley值分解方法,考察了2006—2015年中国大陆31个省(市、自治区)城市建设用地扩张的区域差异及其驱动因素的贡献程度。结果表明:(1)2006—2015年,中国城市建设用地扩张的区域差异比较明显,衡量差异程度的基尼系数先升后降,最后稳定于0.3左右;(2)财政赤字率、经济政策执行力、经济增长、人口城镇化等因素对建设用地扩张具有正向驱动作用,产业结构调整、建设用地利用效率等因素对建设用地扩张具有负向驱动作用;(3)经济增长、财政赤字率、经济政策执行力等三个因素对建设用地扩张区域差异的贡献最大;(4)影响我国东、中、西三个区域建设用地扩张的主导因素不尽相同。为此,应从促进区域经济平衡发展、拓宽政府融资渠道、加快产业结构调整、提高建设用地利用效率等多方面入手,破解城市建设用地过度扩张的困局。     

湘南红壤丘陵区农户经济行为对土地退化的影响分析——以祁东县紫云村为例

通过在湖南省祁东县紫云材进行的土地利用及农户经济行为调查,从土地状况、从业选择、农具、农田设施、耕作方式和效益等方面,分析了湘南红壤丘陵区农户社会经济行为对土地质量的影响。结果表明：紫云村农户重“品种”轻“土壤”,水田土壤有机质含量减少,理化性状变差,土壤自然肥力降低,旱地、林地粗放经营,质量退化。改变农户只重“品种”而忽视“土壤”的观念、提高耕地复种指数、建立合理的轮作体系和水土保持型高效集约持续的耕作制度、加强林业管理和经营、加大农业投入、搞好农田水利建设是防止本区土地退化和保证本区农业可持续发展的对策。     

Energy and environmental challenges: bringing together economics and engineering (ICEE’17)

Agricultural landscapes of the southern Brazilian Amazon are the result of 80 years of governmental policies to install a powerful agricultural sector. Yet, this rapid expansion raised important environmental considerations especially with regard to deforestation. The agricultural frontier is thus now facing a huge challenge: to combine socioeconomic development with environmental conservation in the context of frontier expansion. Based on a conceptual model of the agricultural frontier, we review historical changes in environmental and development policies in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso and emphasize their ambivalent trend to both encourage and control the progress of the frontier. We then extend this model with an integration stage where environmental governance and economic development evolve from competing to complementary concepts. At this stage, the efforts to slow down deforestation are accompanied with programs to promote new agricultural practices and support industrialization. Finally, we put into perspective this recent evolution with regard to the underlying reasons for changing the agricultural model, thus considering the agricultural frontier to be at a tipping point where first positive results need to be confirmed in spite of an unstable economic and political situation.     

Institutions,policies and soil degradation: theoretical examinations and case studies in Southeast China

Abstract

Southeast China is one of the severe soil degradation areas in China. This paper theoretically examines the impact of some important institutional arrangements and policies, like land management pattern, the rural off-farm employment, land property change and changes in prices of agricultural products, on soil degradation in this area. It further conducts some case studies to confirm the potential relationship between the institutions & policies and soil degradation, applying the surveyed and the second hand data. The paper at last makes some conclusions and proposes some suggestions on how to promote soil conservation by improving the ways of policy decision-making and the effects of policies on land use.     

Modelling land use change across elevation gradients in district Swat, Pakistan

District Swat is part of the high mountain Hindu-Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan. Documentation and analysis of land use change in this region is challenging due to very disparate accounts of the state of forest resources and limited accessible data. Such analysis is, however, important due to concerns over the degradation of forest land leading to deterioration of the protection of water catchments and exposure of highly erodible soils. Furthermore, the area is identified as hotspot for biodiversity loss. The aim of this paper is to identify geophysical and geographical factors related to land use change and model how these relationships vary across the district. For three selected zones across the elevation gradient of the district, we analyse land use change by studying land use maps for the years 1968, 1990 and 2007. In the high-altitude zone, the forest area decreased by 30.5 %, a third of which was caused by agricultural expansion. In the mid-elevation zone, agriculture expanded by 70.3 % and forests decreased by 49.7 %. In the lower altitudes, agriculture expansion was 129.9 % consuming 31.7 % of the forest area over the forty-year time period. Annual deforestation rates observed were 0.80, 1.28 and 1.86 % in high, mid and low altitudes, respectively. In the high-altitude ecosystems, accessibility (distance to nearest road and city) had no significant role in agriculture expansion; rather land use change appears significantly related to geophysical factors such as slope, aspect and altitude. In the low-elevation zone, accessibility was the factor showing the closest association with agriculture expansion and abandonment. The analysis illustrates that land use change processes vary quite considerably between different altitudinal and vegetation cover zones of the same district and that environmental constraints and stage of economic development provide important contextual information.     

日本国土开发利用及对我国的启示

日本在战后经历了经济高速增长，工业化和城市化快速推进的发展历程，其间土地利用在结构、规模、价格、集约利用等方面发生了巨大变动。本文全面分析了二战之后，日本在经济高速增长、产业结构巨大变动、城市化迅速推进的发展过程中．农业用地、工业用地和城市用地在结构、规模、价格、集约利用程度等方面的特征；日本政府针对经济发展和土地利用的变动和影响。制订的一系列规划调整措施和政策法规体系。通过以上分析，探讨日本在有限的土地资源条件下实现经济高速增长的原因、途径和措施，以及对我国的启示。     

农地非农化中不同利益主体博弈行为分析

随着我国社会经济的发展,城市的加剧扩张和建设用地需求的不断增长而带来的农地非农化在近年来表现得尤为突出,已经严重影响着我国的粮食安全和生态安全.因此,从决策主体行为出发,研究农地非农化问题,对于我国城市化的正常推进以及农地的有效保护具有重要的现实意义.本文从博弈论的角度探讨农地非农化过程中相关利益主体的行为倾向和博弈关系.研究结果表明:(1)中央政府应该加大给予地方政府和农民进行耕地保护的奖励以及提高违规的惩罚力度,抑制农地非农化的速度,遏制违法占用,提高土地的利用率,减少耕地资源的闲置和浪费;(2)中央政府和地方政府应完善相关政策,缩小城乡土地价格差异,提高征地补偿标准,逐步建立公正的补偿机制和科学合理的补偿标准;(3)地方政府应进行土地利用制度和模式的创新,注重力拓土地后备资源,盘活存量资源,减少建设占用农地,不仅能有效地解决经济建设和耕地保护的两难困境,而且能有效地保护生态环境,实现土地资源的可持续合理利用.     

2001~2017年中国建设用地时空分异特征

在快速城市化进程中，我国建设用地急剧扩张，分析建设用地在时间和空间上的变化规律及其原因，对促进我国土地资源的可持续利用具有重要指导意义。基于2001、2006、2011、2017年四期MODIS Land Cover（MCD12Q1）产品数据，结合经济数据和地貌类型数据，研究中国不同经济区和不同地貌类型区的建设用地扩张的时空变化特征，结果表明：（1）全国建设用地在2001~2006、2006~2011、2011~2017年3时期扩张强度逐渐变弱，扩张速度逐渐变慢。（2）2001~2017年建设用地扩张主要发生在东部地区，该地区扩张强度最强、扩张速度最快。3时期内东部地区建设用地扩张强度逐渐变弱，扩张速度逐渐变慢；中部地区扩张强度逐渐变强，扩张速度逐渐变快；西部地区扩张强度先变弱后趋于稳定，扩张速度逐渐变慢；东北地区扩张强度先变弱后趋于稳定，扩张速度先变快后变慢。（3）2001~2017年建设用地扩张主要发生在平原地区，扩张强度最强，丘陵地区扩张速度最快；平原地区建设用地扩张强度逐渐变弱，扩张速度逐渐变慢；丘陵地区扩张强度先变弱后变强，扩张速度先变慢后变快；山地地区扩张强度逐渐变强，扩张速度先变快后变慢；高原地区扩张强度逐渐变强，扩张速度逐渐变快。从研究结果可知，不同经济区建设用地扩张强度和速度具有差异性，主要受不同时期国家相应的区域政策影响；不同地貌类型对建设用地扩张的时空特征也会产生影响。