Toward accurate and precise estimates of lion density

Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to understanding ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation because wildlife authorities rely on estimates to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide‐ranging carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores, such as lions (Panthera leo). Although abundance indices for lions may produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate density and inform management and policy. We used sighting data from a 3‐month survey and adapted a Bayesian spatially explicit capture‐recapture (SECR) model to estimate spatial lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. Our unstructured spatial capture‐recapture sampling design incorporated search effort to explicitly estimate detection probability and density on a fine spatial scale, making our approach robust in the context of varying detection probabilities. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 17.08 (posterior SD 1.310) lions >1 year old/100 km², and the sex ratio was estimated at 2.2 females to 1 male. Our modeling framework and narrow posterior SD demonstrate that SECR methods can produce statistically rigorous and precise estimates of population parameters, and we argue that they should be favored over less reliable abundance indices. Furthermore, our approach is flexible enough to incorporate different data types, which enables robust population estimates over relatively short survey periods in a variety of systems. Trend analyses are essential to guide conservation decisions but are frequently based on surveys of differing reliability. We therefore call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers in key populations to improve management and policy decisions.     

Effects of publication bias on conservation planning

Conservation planners need reliable information on spatial patterns of biodiversity. However, existing data sets are skewed because some ecosystems, taxa, and locations are underrepresented. We determined how many articles have been published in recent decades on the biodiversity of different countries and their constituent provinces. We searched the Web of Science catalogues Science Citation Index (SCI) and Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) for biodiversity-related articles published from 1993 to 2016 that included country and province names. We combined data on research publication frequency with other provincial-scale factors hypothesized to affect the likelihood of research activity (i.e., economic development, human presence, infrastructure, and remoteness). Areas that appeared understudied relative to the biodiversity expected based on site climate likely have been inaccessible to researchers for reasons, notably armed conflict. Geographic publication bias is of most concern in the most remote areas of sub-Saharan Africa and South America. Our provincial-scale model may help compensate for publication biases in conservation planning by revealing the spatial extent of research needs and the low cost of redoing this analysis annually.     

基于视频分析的人群密集场所客流监控预警研究

为实现人群密集场所客流安全隐患早发现，辅助管理人员早决策，人群聚集风险区早疏散，提升对灾难的预见性和主动性。在国内外人群异常聚集监测预警现状分析基础上，对比分析得出监控视频分析技术是解决人群密集场所精准预警难题较为理想的解决方案；构建以视频智能分析的人群计数、密度估计、行人追踪、活动烈度识别为核心技术的人群密集场所风险预警技术框架；将该技术框架应用到某大型商圈的商业街区，获得监控区域内的人群总数、密度分布、行人轨迹和异常活动等特征。结果表明:提出的基于视频分析的人群密集场所风险预警技术框架可为城市大型商圈、交通枢纽、大型活动场所等城市公共场所的安全管理提供参考和借鉴。     

城市生态系统复合下垫面碳通量特征——以上海市奉贤大学城为例

随着城市化进程的加速和城市人口规模的增加,城市已成为最大的碳源,研究城市生态系统对大气二氧化碳的贡献成为碳循环研究的焦点问题之一。基于研究区域内土地利用现状和一年的涡动观测系统观测数据,结合地理信息技术(Arc GIS)和通量计算工具(Eddypro及ART Footprint Tool)以及碳通量足迹模型分析了上海奉贤大学城碳通量足迹特征,基于此探讨不同下垫面类型,包括以草本和木本等透水层为主的下垫面(称为自然系统),以建筑物、道路等不透水层为主的下垫面(称为社会系统)碳通量的变化特征。研究结果表明:1)在不同风向上,碳通量贡献区范围随着大气稳定度的增加而扩大。大气处于稳定条件下,非主风向上的碳通量贡献区范围(最大范围1 100 m)比主风向上的碳通量贡献区范围(最大范围780m)要大;当大气处于不稳定条件下时主风向和非主风向下的碳通量贡献区范围相差不大(最大范围分别为321和351m)。2)不同下垫面其源汇特征不同,以绿色植物为主的自然系统年碳通量均值为–4.1μmol/m~2/s,表现为碳汇;社会系统的年碳通量均值为8.6μmol/m~2/s,表现为碳源。3)自然系统的碳通量日变化具有较明显的季节分异,变化特征大致呈"U"型;社会系统的碳通量日变化没有明显的季节分异,变化特征大致呈"M"型。绿色植物对城市生态系统的大气二氧化碳有降低作用,结合自然和社会系统的碳通量变化特征可以为以后合理规划城市布局,建立低碳城市提供服务。     

Inverse modeling of Asian Rn flux using surface air Rn concentration

When used with an atmospheric transport model, the ²²²Rn flux distribution estimated in our previous study using soil transport theory caused underestimation of atmospheric ²²²Rn concentrations as compared with measurements in East Asia. In this study, we applied a Bayesian synthesis inverse method to produce revised estimates of the annual ²²²Rn flux density in Asia by using atmospheric ²²²Rn concentrations measured at seven sites in East Asia. The Bayesian synthesis inverse method requires a prior estimate of the flux distribution and its uncertainties. The atmospheric transport model MM5/HIRAT and our previous estimate of the ²²²Rn flux distribution as the prior value were used to generate new flux estimates for the eastern half of the Eurasian continent dividing into 10 regions.The ²²²Rn flux densities estimated using the Bayesian inversion technique were generally higher than the prior flux densities. The area-weighted average ²²²Rn flux density for Asia was estimated to be 33.0 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹, which is substantially higher than the prior value (16.7 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹). The estimated ²²²Rn flux densities decrease with increasing latitude as follows: Southeast Asia (36.7 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹); East Asia (28.6 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹) including China, Korean Peninsula and Japan; and Siberia (14.1 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹). Increase of the newly estimated fluxes in Southeast Asia, China, Japan, and the southern part of Eastern Siberia from the prior ones contributed most significantly to improved agreement of the model-calculated concentrations with the atmospheric measurements. The sensitivity analysis of prior flux errors and effects of locally exhaled ²²²Rn showed that the estimated fluxes in Northern and Central China, Korea, Japan, and the southern part of Eastern Siberia were robust, but that in Central Asia had a large uncertainty.     

Distribution of radionuclides in the guano sediments of Xisha Islands, South China Sea and its implication

Several natural and anthropogenic radionuclides (²¹⁰Pb, ²²⁶Ra and ¹³⁷Cs) in guano-phosphatic coral sediments and pure guano particles collected from Ganquan, Guangjin, Jinqing and Jinyin Islands of the Xisha archipelago, South China Sea, were analyzed. The Constant Initial Concentration (CIC) model and the Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) model were applied for age calculation. The average supply rate of ²¹⁰Pb was 126 Bq m⁻² a⁻¹, very close to the flux of northern hemisphere average (125 Bq m⁻² a⁻¹). The activities of anthropogenic radionuclides in the sediments were very low, indicating that human nuclear tests did not notably impact this region. The main source of radionuclides in the sediments was from atmospheric precipitation, and the organic matter derived from plant and produced by nutrient-rich guano could further enhance them.     

Combining sap flow and eddy covariance approaches to derive stomatal and non-stomatal O3 fluxes in a forest stand

Stomatal O₃ fluxes to a mixed beech/spruce stand (Fagus sylvatica/Picea abies) in Central Europe were determined using two different approaches. The sap flow technique yielded the tree-level transpiration, whereas the eddy covariance method provided the stand-level evapotranspiration. Both data were then converted into stomatal ozone fluxes, exemplifying this novel concept for July 2007. Sap flow-based stomatal O₃ flux was 33% of the total O₃ flux, whereas derivation from evapotranspiration rates in combination with the Penman-Monteith algorithm amounted to 47%. In addition to this proportional difference, the sap flow-based assessment yielded lower levels of stomatal O₃ flux and reflected stomatal regulation rather than O₃ exposure, paralleling the daily courses of canopy conductance for water vapor and eddy covariance-based total stand-level O₃ flux. The demonstrated combination of sap flow and eddy covariance approaches supports the development of O₃ risk assessment in forests from O₃ exposure towards flux-based concepts.     

Determination of specific gravity of municipal solid waste

This investigation was conducted to evaluate experimental determination of specific gravity (G_s) of municipal solid waste (MSW). Water pycnometry, typically used for testing soils was adapted for testing MSW using a large flask with 2000 mL capacity and specimens with 100–350 g masses. Tests were conducted on manufactured waste samples prepared using US waste constituent components; fresh wastes obtained prior and subsequent to compaction at an MSW landfill; and wastes obtained from various depths at the same landfill. Factors that influence specific gravity were investigated including waste particle size, compaction, and combined decomposition and stress history. The measured average specific gravities were 1.377 and 1.530 for as-prepared/uncompacted and compacted manufactured wastes, respectively; 1.072 and 1.258 for uncompacted and compacted fresh wastes, respectively; and 2.201 for old wastes. The average organic content and degree of decomposition were 77.2% and 0%, respectively for fresh wastes and 22.8% and 88.3%, respectively for old wastes. The G_s increased with decreasing particle size, compaction, and increasing waste age. For fresh wastes, reductions in particle size and compaction caused occluded intraparticle pores to be exposed and waste particles to be deformed resulting in increases in specific gravity. For old wastes, the high G_s resulted from loss of biodegradable components that have low G_s as well as potential access to previously occluded pores and deformation of particles due to both degradation processes and applied mechanical stresses. The G_s was correlated to the degree of decomposition with a linear relationship. Unlike soils, the G_s for MSW was not unique, but varied in a landfill environment due both to physical/mechanical processes and biochemical processes. Specific gravity testing is recommended to be conducted not only using representative waste composition, but also using representative compaction, stress, and degradation states.     

重庆缙云山4种典型植被覆盖下汞的释放通量及影响因素

为了揭示不同植被覆盖下土壤/大气界面释汞通量及其交换特征,在缙云山国家级自然保护区内选择4种典型植被覆盖类型(常绿阔叶林、楠竹林、灌木林以及草地)为研究对象,连续同步监测不同植被覆盖下土/气界面汞释放通量,同时考察各环境因子对土壤释汞的影响.结果表明,缙云山在4种不同植被覆盖下土壤汞释放通量具有明显的差异,总体表现为楠竹林[17.77 ng·(m~2·h)~(-1)]草地[17.58 ng·(m~2·h)~(-1)]灌木林[16.87 ng·(m~2·h)~(-1)]常绿阔叶林[14.32 ng·(m~2·h)~(-1)];不同植被覆盖下土壤释汞通量在季节变化上呈现相似的规律性,但不同植被覆盖类型之间也存在明显差异,主要体现在暖季汞释放通量高于冷季;缙云山地区不同林植被覆盖下土壤释汞通量存在明显的日变化;气象因素光照强度、气温、土温和相对湿度,对土/气界面汞释放通量影响也不相同,气温为常绿阔叶林,灌木林与楠竹林的主要影响因子,光照强度为草地的主要影响因子.     

陕北黄土丘陵区不同土地利用方式下土壤碳剖面分布特征

黄土高原土层深厚,土壤剖面碳存储受土地利用方式影响明显.为探讨不同土地利用方式对深层土壤碳分布的影响,研究了人工经济林地(陕北米脂)、退耕还林地(神木)和防风固沙林地(榆林榆阳区)0~20.0 m土壤有机碳(SOC)和无机碳(SIC)的分布特征和差异.结果表明,在不同土地利用方式下SOC含量:矮化枣树(2.00 g·kg~(-1))未矮化枣树(1.54 g·kg~(-1))柠条林(0.97 g·kg~(-1))退化人工草地(0.81 g·kg~(-1))樟子松林(0.70 g·kg~(-1))荒草地(0.45 g·kg~(-1)),且各剖面之间SOC含量存在显著性差异(P0.05).在不同土地利用方式下SIC含量:矮化枣树(11.66 g·kg~(-1))≥未矮化枣树(11.59g·kg~(-1))柠条林(9.62 g·kg~(-1))退化人工草地(8.07 g·kg~(-1))樟子松林(4.32 g·kg~(-1))荒草地(0.47 g·kg~(-1));人工经济林和退耕还林(草)样地内所有土壤剖面之间SIC含量无显著性差异;人工经济林、退耕还林(草)剖面和防风固沙林地剖面SIC含量存在显著性差异(P0.05).矮化枣树、未矮化枣树、柠条林、退化人工草地、樟子松林和荒草地土壤剖面无机碳密度分别是有机碳密度的6.19、7.71、10.80、10.78、5.91和1.03倍.综上可见,不同土地利用方式之间土壤碳储量存在明显差异,无机碳的含量远高于有机碳.