COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE ENGINEERING DESIGNS1

ABSTRACT: Procedures are presented for comparing and evaluating alternative engineering designs for a particular water resources project. By using certain aspects of fuzzy set theory, it is possible to introduce both quantitative and qualitative considerations into the decisionmaking process. In addition, the viewpoints of the various interest groups involved with the water resources development can be realistically incorporated by the evaluation techniques for the alternative designs. Methods are given for eliminating undesirable alternatives and thereby obtaining a reduced set of possible feasible solutions to the problem. Because of the flexibility of the evaluation methods, the viable alternatives should not only satisfy economical, technical. environmental and other types of constraints, but these possible solutions should be politically feasible as well. A method is formulated for checking the sensitivity of the feasible results with respect to the factors that are considered in the analysis.     

A CODED ALGORITHM FOR CAPACITY EXPANSION OF A WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a mathematical model, an algorithm and a computer program that were specially developed to study the problem of a water quality management system undergoing a rapidly increasing environmental stress. The model output will determine the locations, sizes and the timing of construction of new treatment plants plus an overall treatment plant operating policy so that environmental standards are maintained at a minimum cost. The model, as formulated, is a 0-1 mixed integer programming problem which is solved by decomposing it into a capital budgeting problem (solved by Little's branch and bound algorithm) and an operational policy problem (solved by linear programming). The coded algorithm (in FORTRAN 10) has been tested with a semi-realistic example.     

Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment modelsA case study of urbanization in Ujung Pandang, Indonesia

Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于可变模糊集理论及其模型的水利规划环境影响综合评价

地区水利规划环评处于起步阶段，存在评价形式化、方法单一化以及指标权重确定的主观性较强等问题。针对以往评价中的不足，提出了运用可变模糊集理论及其模型进行综合评价的方法。以江苏省水利发展规划作为研究实例，建立指标体系，采用模糊聚类循环迭代模型进行主客观综合指标权重的计算；从重点工程空间布局角度出发，运用调整后的可变模糊识别模型进行各市环境影响的相对优属度计算。结果表明，全省规划方案的环境影响相对优属度大于现状和零方案，南通市的相对优属度最大，其次是苏州和无锡。与层次分析法进行对比，该理论及其模型适用于地区水利规划环境影响综合评价     

用二级模糊评判模型评价环境质量状况

用二级模糊评判模型评价区域环境质量状况,弥补了用一级模糊综合评判只可评价各点位环境质量状况的不足,是一种新的环境评价方法,评价结果与实际情况相符,效果良好,方法实用.     

模糊事故树在分析氯乙烯单体槽爆炸风险中的应用

在对氯乙烯单体槽爆炸事故构建事故树的基础上,根据现场设备实际运行状况的统计及依据专家经验所提供的模糊信息,运用模糊事故树理论,引入L-R型模糊数,应用其尖态型隶属函数,对氯乙烯单体槽进行了模糊可靠性分析,求出了氯乙烯单体槽爆炸事故的模糊概率可能性分布;并利用结构重要度系数近似值法对其进行结构重要度分析,运用对事故树底部事件进行排序分级的加权结构重要度分析法,确立了影响系统的最主要因素,为系统安全分析提供了新的方法和途径。     

航空维修人为差错影响因素分析中的模糊层次分析法

航空维修中的人为差错影响因素分析对于预防事故发生至关重要,如何定量分析及辨识出主要影响因素是亟待解决的问题。为此,结合航空维修实际,提出运用群组模糊层次分析法对人为差错影响因素进行量化排序和分类,归纳细化了影响因素层次体系,并给出了分析计算流程。以一起由维修人为差错所引发的航空事故为例进行了实证分析,结果表明:该方法能够辨识出航空维修中人为差错产生的主要影响因素,进而对制订最优事故预防方案,控制和减少该类事故的发生有积极意义。同时该方法对其他行业中的人为差错主要影响因素辨识有着一定的参考价值。     

基于三角模糊数的民航企业“管理”安全综合评价模型研究

在对我国民航企业安全管理的现状和常用的安全评价方法进行分析的基础上,提出并建立了民航企业"管理"安全模糊综合评价模型。首先,从组织管理、风险管理、安全保证、安全促进4个方面对民航企业安全管理的内容和特点进行分析,在此基础上建立民航企业"管理"安全评价指标体系;然后,根据三角模糊数理论和模糊综合评价理论建立民航企业"管理"安全模糊综合评价模型;通过上述指标体系和评价模型从而达到对民航企业"管理"安全进行评价的目的。最后,给出了一个应用实例,其评价结果表明:该模型具有很强的实用性和借鉴价值。     

基于模糊AHP模型的飞行评价体系

一种正确有效的飞行训练评估方法是保障飞行训练质量的必要前提和基础,而传统的评估方法多采用单一指标评价法或横向指标比较法,这种方法虽然简单易行,但没有充分考虑到评估体系自身的多样性,不能够真实反映飞行训练状态。本文提出了以模糊综合法为主体,专家评价、层次分析法相结合的综合评价方法,通过构造隶属度矩阵,建立飞行训练评估模型,克服了飞行教员评价的主观性,比较全面、客观的进行综合评估,量化计算过程,为真实、有效的飞行训练奠定基础。