创新驱动我国省域绿色增长的空间效应

利用全局主成分分析法测度中国大陆地区30个省市自治区(不含西藏)2003～2016年的绿色增长水平,并构建空间面板杜宾模型,实证考察了知识创新、技术创新、制度创新、文化创新驱动省际绿色增长的空间效应.结果表明,知识创新对绿色增长水平产生显著的正向空间影响,直接效应为2.35×10-5,间接效应为3.75×10-5;本地...     

大型公共场所多源疏散的控制流模型研究

以现有的单源最快流控制算法为基础,考虑人员在大型公共场所中的实际分布状况,遵循最大限度利用各出口的原则,提出针对多源疏散的全局最优化算法。根据此算法可以得出各疏散源点经过各出口的疏散人员数量以及人员的行走路径、从源点出发和完成疏散的时刻。将算法应用于某百货公司的案例研究表明,在多源疏散的情况下,各源点依次按照单源最快流控制算法进行独立疏散,能够保证每个源点的最优疏散,但整体的疏散效率并非最优;而应用全局最优化算法进行疏散,可以充分利用疏散过程中不同出口的疏散时间差,取得减少整体疏散时间、提高疏散效率的效果。     

长江三角洲全球城市区空间建构

在全球化背景下,全球城市区作为一种新的城市空间和功能组织形式,通过全球城市接入全球经济网络,在全球城市体系中发挥着越来越重要的作用。通过分析长江三角洲地区不断深入的全球化进程和不断加强的城镇一体化态势,提出长江三角洲地区是中国最有可能建设成为全球城市区的区域;进而从全球城市区的空间建构和功能组织的角度,提出通过提升上海全球城市功能,打造南京、杭州、苏州、宁波的次级全球城市职能,强化城市间的功能联系,构筑区域网络一体化支撑体系,构建“多中心层域式、网络状一体化”的长江三角洲全球城市区;并提出面向全球化和基于地方化的区域功能组织结构,打造若干全球化战略区以推进长江三角洲全球城市区建设。     

全球视角下的企业ESG绩效驱动因素解析

企业是践行可持续理念、实现可持续发展目标的重要主体。企业需要在生产经营过程中统筹提升环境（E）、社会（S）、治理（G）三个维度的ESG绩效。基于外部压力和内部实力,本文预先设定了国家背景、行业属性、金融实力三种因素驱动企业改善ESG绩效的理论假设。为检验假设,本文使用多元线性回归和多层线性模型对来自55个国家、共计6139家上市公司样本进行实证研究。结果表明,即使在控制企业规模、风险管理和社会声誉的情况下,国家可持续发展水平、行业绿色发展水平、企业金融实力仍能显著提升企业ESG绩效。其中,国家和行业变量不仅直接促进了企业ESG绩效的提升,还在更高维度上通过调节CFP-ESG的关系间接促进企业ESG绩效的提升。本研究有助于企业更好地制定实施可持续发展战略,也能为投资者评估并筛选出ESG绩效优异的企业提供科学参考。     

富营养化与温度因素对太湖藻类生长的影响研究

为了研究气候变暖和富营养化对湖泊水生态系统的影响,应用阿列纽斯方程修正的Monod生长模型定量研究长期以来太湖藻类生物量与营养元素和温度的关系.研究表明,在近年来的富营养化状况下,年均气温每增加1.0℃,年均藻类生物量增加0.145倍.湖泊富营养化越严重.年平均气温对藻类生长的影响就越大,由此可以定量评估和预测年均气温...     

Selection of both habitat and genes in specialized and endangered caribou

Genetic mechanisms determining habitat selection and specialization of individuals within species have been hypothesized, but not tested at the appropriate individual level in nature. In this work, we analyzed habitat selection for 139 GPS-collared caribou belonging to 3 declining ecotypes sampled throughout Northwestern Canada. We used Resource Selection Functions comparing resources at used and available locations. We found that the 3 caribou ecotypes differed in their use of habitat suggesting specialization. On expected grounds, we also found differences in habitat selection between summer and winter, but also, originally, among the individuals within an ecotype. We next obtained Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) for the same caribou individuals, we detected those associated to habitat selection, and then identified genes linked to these SNPs. These genes had functions related in other organisms to habitat and dietary specializations, and climatic adaptations. We therefore suggest that individual variation in habitat selection was based on genotypic variation in the SNPs of individual caribou, indicating that genetic forces underlie habitat and diet selection in the species. We also suggest that the associations between habitat and genes that we detected may lead to lack of resilience in the species, thus contributing to caribou endangerment. Our work emphasizes that similar mechanisms may exist for other specialized, endangered species.     

人类活动对轨道尺度全球季风区降水影响的模拟研究【封面文章】

目前，人类活动导致的温室气体增加是全球气候变化的主要驱动因素之一，但其在轨道尺度上对未来气候影响的研究却很少。利用海-陆-气耦合模式，对早全新世（距今10 ka前）、现代和未来10 ka后的气候进行了一系列敏感性数值试验，主要探讨了在轨道尺度上自然强迫和人为温室气体对全球季风区气候变化的可能影响。模拟结果表明：在自然强迫驱动下，未来10 ka后的地球气候与早全新世类似，北半球的地表温度和降水将高于工业革命前的水平，而南半球则相反。在人类活动驱动下，未来10 ka后全球地表温度将显著增加，除北美季风区外，所有季风区雨季的降水都将增加。受人类活动的影响，与工业革命前相比，极端降水和大气有效降水也将增加。在自然强迫下，雨季大气有效降水的增加主要是由于动力作用引起的大气环流增强，而人类活动引起的现代和未来10 ka后大气有效降水的增加主要是由于热力作用引起的大气水汽增加所致。     

全球气候治理背景下中国气候金融发展的挑战和应对

气候金融是全球气候治理的重要基础和关键要素。国际政治局势的变动和《巴黎协定》的签订使得全球气候治理格局发生了重大转变。文章基于这一时代背景和国际气候金融发展趋势，从气候金融政策发展、气候金融机构及其产品和服务、气候金融风险管理三个角度梳理中国气候金融发展现状和内外部障碍。基于此，文章提出了气候金融发展的中国应对策略，认为应健全政策体系，加强国际合作；扩大金融供给，完善行业体系；健全法规约束，提升管理水平。     

Redefining and mapping global irreplaceability

Irreplaceability is a concept used to describe how close a site is to being essential for achieving conservation targets. Current methods for measuring irreplaceability are based on representative combinations of sites, giving them an extrinsic nature and exponential computational requirements. Surrogate measures based on efficiency (complementarity) are often used as alternatives, but they were never intended for this purpose and do not measure irreplaceability. Current approaches used to estimate irreplaceability have key limitations. Some of these are a result of the tools used, but some are due to the nature of the current definition of irreplaceability. For irreplaceability to be stable and useful for conservation purposes and to resolve limitations, irreplaceability measures should adhere to five axioms; baseline coherence, monotonic responsiveness, proportional responsiveness, intrinsic stability, and bounded outputs. We designed a robust method for measuring a site's proximity to irreplaceability that adheres to these requirements and used it to develop the first systematic global map of irreplaceability based on data for terrestrial vertebrates (n = 29,837 species, >1 million grid cells). At least 3.5% of land surface was highly irreplaceable, and 47.6% of highly irreplaceable cells were contained in 12 countries. More generous thresholds of irreplaceability flag greater portions of land surface that would still be realistic to protect under current global objectives. Irreplaceable sites should form a critical component of any global conservation plan and should be part of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity's post2020 Global Biodiversity Framework strategy, forming part of the 30% protection by 2030 target that is gaining support. The reliable identification of irreplaceable sites will be crucial to halting extinctions.     

Age and spatial distribution of the world's oldest trees

Extremely old trees have important roles in providing insights about historical climatic events and supporting cultural values, yet there has been limited work on their global distribution and conservation. We extracted information on 197,855 tree cores from 4854 sites and combined it with other tree age (e.g., the OLDLIST) data from a further 156 sites to determine the age of the world's oldest trees and quantify the factors influencing their global distribution. We found that extremely old trees >1000 years were rare. Among 30 individual trees that exceeded 2000 years old, 27 occurred in high mountains. We modeled maximum tree age with climatic, soil topographic, and anthropogenic variables, and our regression models demonstrated that elevation, human population density, soil carbon content, and mean annual temperature were key determinants of the distribution of the world's oldest trees. Specifically, our model predicted that many of the oldest trees will occur in high-elevation, cold, and arid mountains with limited human disturbance. This pattern was markedly different from that of the tallest trees, which were more likely to occur in relatively more mesic and productive locations. Global warming and expansion of human activities may induce rapid population declines of extremely old trees. New strategies, including targeted establishment of conservation reserves in remote regions, especially those in western parts of China and the United States, are required to protect these trees.