过去两千年长江干流历史洪水事件的时空变化研究

理解极端洪水事件活动特征及其与气候变化、人类活动的相互关系一直是全球变化研究的热点问题。现代器测数据较短对洪水事件变化规律预测存在不足,而利用历史文献记录研究百年-千年尺度洪水事件的发生规律则成为一个较好的选择。洪水灾害是长江流域最为严重的自然灾害之一。本文以官方现存历史记载为依据,构建了过去2000年长江干流上、中、下游洪水事件序列,并将其与气候和人类活动代理指标进行对比。结果表明,1350年之前,长江干流洪水事件受东亚季风(EASM)、西南季风(ISM)、厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)、热带辐合带(ITCZ)移动等多种气候因素驱动,且气候驱动机制在同期不同区、同区不同期存在显著差异。此外,1350年之后人类活动的增强可能明显加剧了长江干流洪水事件的频率和强度。     

Forest Stand Dynamics and Livestock Grazing in Historical Context

Abstract:  Livestock grazing has been implicated as a cause of the unhealthy condition of ponderosa pine forest stands in the western United States. An evaluation of livestock grazing impacts on natural resources requires an understanding of the context in which grazing occurred. Context should include timing of grazing, duration of grazing, intensity of grazing, and species of grazing animal. Historical context, when and under what circumstances grazing occurred, is also an important consideration. Many of the dense ponderosa pine forests and less-than-desirable forest health conditions of today originated in the early 1900s. Contributing to that condition was a convergence of fire, climate, and grazing factors that were unique to that time. During that time period, substantially fewer low-intensity ground fires (those that thinned dense stands of younger trees) were the result of reduced fine fuels (grazing), a substantial reduction in fires initiated by Native Americans, and effective fire-suppression programs. Especially favorable climate years for tree reproduction occurred during the early 1900s. Exceptionally heavy, unregulated, unmanaged grazing by very large numbers of horses, cattle, and sheep during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries occurred in most of the U.S. West and beginning earlier in portions of the Southwest. Today, livestock numbers on public lands are substantially lower than they were during this time and grazing is generally managed. Grazing then and grazing now are not the same.     

Distribution of heavy metals in sediments of the Pearl River Estuary, Southern China: Implications for sources and historical changes

The distribution of heavy metals (Pb, Zn, Cd and As) in sediments of the Pearl River Estuary was investigated. The spatial distribution of heavy metals displayed a decreasing pattern from the turbidity maxima to both upstream and downstream of the estuary, which suggested that suspended sediments played an important role in the trace metal distribution in the Pearl River Estuary. In addition, metal concentrations were higher in the west part of the estuary which received most of the pollutants from the Pearl River. In the sediment cores, fluxes of heavy metals were consistent with a predominant anthropogenic input in the period 1970-1990. From the mid-1990s to the 2000s, there was a significant decline in heavy metal pollution. The observed decline has shown the result of pollution control in the Pearl River Delta. However, it is noteworthy that the metal concentrations in the most recent sediment still remained considerably high. Taken together, the enrichment of heavy metals in sediments was largely controlled by anthropogenic pollution.     

历史时期长江中游水灾与厄尔尼诺事件的遥相关

长江中游历来是长江流域水灾最严重的地区，研究历史时期这一地区水灾发生的变化波动并找出其与厄尔尼诺事件的遥相关，将有助于对长江中游水灾发生的预测。对这二个时间序列自1525年以来的数据进行了统计学分析。结果表明，水灾发生的主要周期比厄尔尼诺事件发生的周期要长：后者主要表现为2年和3~4年的振动，而前者的主要周期为2年、8年和40年，其显著性也没有后者明显（但都超过了0.03的置信度）。通过进一步分析历史时期长江中游水灾与厄尔尼诺事件的耦合振动，发现它们之间存在显著的遥相关。结果表明，长江中游水灾对厄尔尼诺现象的响应不仅存在着如许多中国学者相信的短期滞后（如：1年），而且还存在着比较长时间的滞后（最长可达8年）。研究结果同时表明，如果厄尔尼诺事件发生的相距时间愈短，这一时期长江中游水灾响应的滞后时间也愈短，反之亦然。     

中美两国经济发展与铜消费量对比研究

发达国家的发展过程表明,经济增长与铜消费量密切相关。本文由IPAT方程推导了铜消费指标与GDP间的关系式,得出GDP的年增长率（g）的单位GDP铜消费量的年下降率（t）是影响铜消费量变化的两个重要参数。给出了中、美两国铜消费指标与GDP间的关系曲线;中国1960-2004年间单位GDP的铜消费量并未形成明显的上升或下降趋势;美国1941-2004年间单位GDP铜消费量的变化总体上逐年降低,1941年为17.80kg/10^4USD,2003年为2.56kg/10^4USD,单位GDP的铜消费量降低近7倍。对应不同的单位GDP铜消费量年下降率的假设,估计了未来25年内中国经济增长与铜消费指标间的关系以及单位GDP铜消费量降低的倍数。     

石林风景名胜区对乡村经济发展的影响

石林风景名胜区始建于20世纪30年代,旅游开发经历了居民游览、服务中心城市的接待观光型到区域支柱产业的转型。经济体制深刻地影响了石林旅游业,旅游产品延续了计划经济体制下形成接待观光游览型,形成以门票收入为主体的旅游经济收入格局,对不同层次的经济发展带来不同的影响。石林旅游业对县级经济收入、产业结构、财政、税收有积极影响,近5年石林旅游业占当地GDP的9%～11%,占第三产业产值的27.9% ～33%、财政收入的10.8%～0.1%,但对农业生产、农村居民就业和家庭收入的带动力弱,有明显的“距离衰减效应”。获得旅游效益的居民限于风景区旅游中心的村寨,约占风景区人口的15%,中心旅游区的第三产业就业人员比例比其它地区高7%～35%。中心区农民参与旅游业方式的调查表明,居民参与旅游业的方式被动：耕地被征用后,或被风景名胜区管理部门雇佣、或成个体工商户、或被外来企业雇佣,就业领域局限于餐饮服务、环卫和绿化、民族工艺品制作与销售、照相、旅游交通、导游等。风景区农村的基础建设、产业结构、就业领域与风景区功能和旅游业目标的协调存在距离。促进风景名胜区旅游业对所在地的“三农”发展的协调值得思考和解决。     

我国的自然遗迹保护与自然遗迹类保护区的建设

我国自然遗迹类保护区数量少,代表性参差不齐,不适应丰富多样的自然遗迹保护的要求。依靠自然遗迹类保护区、非自然遗迹类保护区、风景名胜区和森林公园等几种形式,使200多处有代表性的自然遗迹得到保护,但几者之间有重迭交叉,总的覆盖面也不完全。应加强全国自然遗迹保护的统一规划与协调,既探索综合保护的路子,也要补建一批自然遗迹类保护区,完善多元化保护的格局。      

洪湖历史时期人类活动的湖泊沉积环境响应

以洪湖北部和南部两个短柱钻孔(HN和HS)研究湖泊沉积,采用137Cs定年,沉积速率为0.155 cm/a。沉积物的总有机碳、总氮、磷以及元素和磁化率等指标分析表明：1840年前洪湖地区人类活动较弱,在湖泊沉积物中基本没有早期的人类活动信号的记录;1840年以后由于人口大量增加,人类活动增强,湖泊的营养水平有所增加,尤其是1950年以来沉积物中营养元素急剧增加;近50年来的湖泊营养程度的加重主要与流域内大量营养物质进入湖泊,以及大面积的围垦造成湖泊面积减小、自我调节能力降低有关。洪湖两孔的对比研究表明,不同区域之间存在着差异,可能与洪湖湖流作用及人类活动的影响差异有关。     

Adaptive flood hazard management strategy and its effect on settlements in the lower Yellow River area in Ming–Qing China: a case study of Kaifeng Prefecture

This paper examines the settlements and embankments of the Yellow River in central China in late imperial China (late fourteenth century to the early twentieth century) through the approach of historical geographical information system. The Yellow River frequently flooded and changed paths in the lower Yellow River area, creating a disaster-prone environment in the populous capital city, Kaifeng in Henan Province. The official policies of constructing embankments in the alluvial fan for the sake of both preventing flood and ensuring canal transportation for grains were important factors in shaping the settlements of the region. Historical data from some counties in Kaifeng Prefecture indicate that people took shelter along the embankments during floods and, as a consequence, villages steadily developed along the embankments. This is in despite official restrictions on the use of the bottomlands along the Yellow River. This historical case not only illustrates the operating modes of official flood prevention strategies in dynastic China, but also shows how archaic settlement patterns and landscapes have shaped the geography of contemporary China.     

大气污染对石灰质文物的风化影响及防护新材料

综述了大气污染对石灰质文物风化影响的研究进展,涉及大气中气体污染物、大气中酸性降水、大气中的气溶胶。文章介绍了目前开发的防护新材料,主要包括有机氟聚合物材料、纳米材料和仿生材料,并指出开发未来新型防护材料的方向是寻找安全生物钙化菌和开发与石灰质文物相匹配的新型保护材料。