NONLINEAR MODELING AND PREDICTION OF A RIVER FLOW SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: Model estimation and prediction of a river flow system are investigated using nonlinear system identification techniques. We demonstrate how the dynamics of the system, rainfall, and river flow can be modeled using NARMAX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenuous input) models. The parameters of the model are estimated using an orthogonal least squares algorithm with intelligent structure detection. The identification of the nonlinear model is described to represent the relationship between local rainfall and river flow at Enoree station (inputs) and river flow at Whitmire (output) for a river flow system in South Carolina.     

太原市大气扩散示踪试验

太原市位于山西中部,东、西两山夹峙,汾河南北中贯,地形北部较高,南部开放,西部有一缺口,是一个封闭不完全的盆地。风速较小,1971—1980年平均风速为2.5m/s,静风频率为24％。在无系统天气过境时,近地层气象十分复杂,城南和城北、河东和河西的地面风往往不同。 近年来,太原市大气污染日趋严重,我们于1985年10—11月在太原地区进行了大气扩散示踪试验,以期能对该地区大气污染物的输送和扩散有所了解。     

曝气生物滤池去除有机物与反应常数及膜厚的关系

推导了BAF前置反硝化工艺简化动力学模型,揭示了BAF去除有机物与反应速率常数与膜厚的关系。同时以生物膜中活性物质与非活性物质增长生物数学模型体系为基础,从理论上推导了BAF最佳膜厚的范围。     

稀释度参数法在恶臭环境影响评价预测中的初探

创建一种可直接依据“臭气浓度”源强、较易预测操作的“稀释度参数法”,对目前在恶臭环境影响评价预测中普遍采用的“臭气强度法”及“类比法”进行补充。以具体案例对“稀释度参数法”预测结果与现状监测结果进行对比,经对比分析,“稀释度参数法”可客观反映现实情况。     

盐酸掺杂聚苯胺粉体表面包覆合金镀层电磁参数研究

盐酸掺杂聚苯胺粉体作为电损耗吸波材料,存在磁损耗差的特点,吸波频带较窄。采用了化学镀的方法在盐酸掺杂聚苯胺粉体表面包覆磁性合金镀层,研究镀后粉体电磁参数的变化。实验结果表明,镀后粉体与原始粉体相比,磁性能有明显改善,但可能镀覆处理过程中粉体掺杂结构遭到破坏,镀后粉体电性能明显减弱。     

SWMM模型在城市不透水区地表径流模拟中的参数识别与验证

为了研究城市不透水下垫面的降雨径流过程和污染负荷,以屋面为例,选择径流管理模型SWMM,采用独立场次实测数据,应用基于不确定性分析的HSY算法和Monte Carlo采样方法对模型中的水文水力和水质参数进行识别和验证.结果表明,地表不透水区径流模型中主要包含6个关键参数,分别为不透水区初损填洼深度(S-imperv)、不透水区曼宁系数(N-imperv),指数累积方程中的最大可能累积值(max buildup)、累积常数(rate constant),指数冲刷方程中的冲刷系数(coefficient)和冲刷指数 (exponent).水文水力参数的识别可以最小二乘法偏差作为目标函数,水质参数的识别可以场次污染负荷和污染物峰值浓度作为目标函数.参数识别结果为N-imperv0.012～0.025, S-imperv 0～0.7, max buildup 15～30, rate constant0.2～0.8, coefficient0.01～ 0.05, exponent1.0～1.2.参数的区域灵敏度由大到小排序为 coefficient、S-imperv、N-imperv、max buildup、exponent、rate constant.识别后的参数可以通过模型验证,但是在模拟一些雨型特殊的降雨径流污染物浓度曲线时,仍然存在一定的困难.     

太湖梅梁湾水体组分吸收特性季节差异分析

利用2006年8月、11月和2007年3月太湖梅梁湾水样实验室测定的水体组分固有光学特性数据和水质分析数据,分析水体中各组分在不同季节的吸收特性,并讨论不同季节光谱吸收的主导因子.结果表明,各组分在不同季节其吸收特性存在一定的差异,总悬浮吸收系数在夏季最大,在440 nm平均吸收系数为(7.49 4±3.0)m-1,春季最小,440 nm平均吸收系数为(2.86±0.73)m-1,且不同季节其吸收类型不同;非藻类颗粒吸收特性的季节性差异相对较小,其吸收系数和S值的差异主要是由于无机悬浮物含量和组成的不同导致的;由于藻类含量的差异导致浮游藻类吸收系数在夏季最大,675 nm平均吸收系数为(5.49±3.5)m-1,秋季次之675 nm平均吸收系数为(2.03±1.14)m-1,春季最小,675 nm平均吸收系数为(0.62±0.25)m-1;而有色可溶件有机物(chromophoric dissolved organic matter,CDOM)吸收系数和S值的季节差异性主要是由于其来源的不同,导致其浓度和成分的不同形成的.春、秋季由于无机悬浮物含量较高,非藻类颗粒物对总吸收的贡献大于其他组分,是水体总吸收的主导因子,而夏季由于浮游藻类含量较高,使其成为水下光谱的主要影响因素.     

Development and application of a two-dimensional water quality model for the Daqinghe River Mouth of the Dianchi Lake

Water quality models are important tools to support the optimization of aquatic ecosystem rehabilitation programs and assess their efficiency. Basing on the flow conditions of the Daqinghe River Mouth of the Dianchi Lake, China, two-dimensional water quality model was developed in the research. The hydrodynamics module was numerically solved by the alternating direction iteration (ADI) method. The parameters of the water quality module were obtained through the in situ experiments and the lab analyses that were conducted from 2006 to 2007. The model was calibrated and verified by the observation data in 2007. Among the four modelled key variables that were water level, CODcr, NH3-N and PO4-P, the minimum value of the coefficient of determination (CoD) was 0.69, which mean the model performed reasonably well. The developed model was then applied to simulate the water quality changes at the downstream cross-section assuming that the designed restoration programs were implemented. According to the simulated results, the restoration programs could cut down the loads of CODcr and PO4-P about 15%, however, they would have very little effect on the NH3-N removal. Besides, the water quality at the outlet cross-section would be still in class V (3838-02), indicating more measures should be taken to further reduce the loads. The study demonstrated the capability of water quality models to support aquatic ecosystem restorations.     

基于仿真的新建污水处理厂工艺参数调试

基于ASM2D模型建立了上海某新建污水厂倒置AAO流程的数学模型,并采用该厂进、出水设计数据对模型进行校正,其中,ASM2D各组分浓度分布参考文献值.同时,通过仿真计算研究了不同温度下进水流量、污泥回流比、混合液回流比及进水流量分配比对出水总化学需氧量（TCOD）、氨氮（SNH3）、总氮（TN）、总磷（TP）及总悬浮颗粒物（TSS）的影响.结果表明,研究获得的定性和定量两方面结果可供该厂在工艺参数调试中作参考.计算机仿真技术在新建污水厂工艺参数调试中的应用可以减少调试时间,降低调试费用,取得良好的经济效益与环境效益.