Will progress in science and technology avert or accelerate global collapse? A critical analysis and policy recommendations

Industrial society will move towards collapse if its total environmental impact (I), expressed either in terms of energy and materials use or in terms of pollution, increases with time, i.e., dI/dt > 0. The traditional interpretation of the I = PAT equation reflects the optimistic belief that technological innovation, particularly improvements in eco-efficiency, will significantly reduce the technology (T) factor, and thereby result in a corresponding decline in impact (I). Unfortunately, this interpretation of the I = PAT equation ignores the effects of technological change on the other two factors: population (P) and per capita affluence (A). A more heuristic formulation of this equation is I = P(T)·A(T)·T in which the dependence of P and A on T is apparent. From historical evidence, it is clear that technological revolutions (tool-making, agricultural, and industrial) have been the primary driving forces behind successive population explosions, and that modern communication and transportation technologies have been employed to transform a large proportion of the world’s inhabitants into consumers of material- and energy-intensive products and services. In addition, factor analysis from neoclassical growth theory and the rebound effect provide evidence that science and technology have played a key role in contributing to rising living standards. While technological change has thus contributed to significant increases in both P and A, it has at the same time brought about considerable eco-efficiency improvements. Unfortunately, reductions in the T-factor have generally not been sufficiently rapid to compensate for the simultaneous increases in both P and A. As a result, total impact, in terms of energy production, mineral extraction, land-use and CO₂ emissions, has in most cases increased with time, indicating that industrial society is nevertheless moving towards collapse. The belief that continued and even accelerated scientific research and technological innovation will automatically result in sustainability and avert collapse is at best mistaken. Innovations in science and technology will be necessary but alone will be insufficient for sustainability. Consequently, what is most needed are specific policies designed to decrease total impact, such as (a) halting population growth via effective population stabilization plans and better access to birth control methods, (b) reducing total matter-energy throughput and pollution by removing perverse subsidies, imposing regulations that limit waste discharges and the depletion of non-renewable resources, and implementing ecological tax reform, and (c) moving towards a steady-state economy in which per-capita affluence is stabilized at lower levels by replacing wasteful conspicuous material consumption with social alternatives known to enhance subjective well-being. While science and technology must play an important role in the implementation of these policies, none will be enacted without a fundamental change in society’s dominant values of growth and exploitation. Thus, value change is the most important prerequisite for avoiding global collapse.

Trans-ocean wireless transfer of electricity from continent to continent

The author offers collections from his previous research of the revolutionary new ideas: wireless transfer of electric energy to a long distance – from one continent to another continent through the Earth's ionosphere and the storage of the electric energy in the ionosphere. Earlier he also suggested the use of electronic tubes as the method for transportation of electricity into outer space and the 100-km electrostatic space towers for connection to the Earth's ionosphere. Earlier a connection to the Earth's ionosphere using 100-km solid or inflatable towers was suggested. however, the technology faces difficulties. In this work, connection to the Earth's ionosphere by thin plastic tubes supported in the atmosphere by electron gas and electrostatic force is researched. Building this system is cheap and easy using the current technology. The computation allows estimating the possibility of the suggested method.     

Local Area Quotas for Industrial Emissions along Reaches of the Pearl River in Guangdong

Abstract

There is an obvious departure from the regional equilibrium of developments between the upper and lower reaches of the Pearl River in Guangdong, which resulted in “the effects of contra-geography-grads development”. It is mainly because the upriver mountainous areas have been deeply stuck in industrialization delay and marginalization plights, so that nearly 40 million local people have conceived a dream to get rid of “the vicious circle of poverty” by speeding up industrial development. But the problem is that such industrialization efforts on a large scale in mountainous areas are encountering the bottleneck of environmental capacity that strictly limits industrial emissions along the upper reaches of any water system. As a solution, an institutional arrangement called “the Local Area Quotas for Industrial Emis-sions along the Pearl River” is put forward supposed to give corresponding compensation to the rights of industrial development yielded by some areas with lower environmental capacity through the distribution and trading of IDQs.     

Systematic Contradiction Between Heritage Conservation and Tourism Development: Cleaning the Temple and Cemetery of Confucius and the Kong Family Mansion in Qufu

Abstract

In recent years, with the rapid development of the tourist industry, world heritage sites become more and more popular among tourists from home and abroad. Therefore, heritage tourism has become a new hotspot. However, while world heritage sites are making obvious economic benefit from tourism, they also bring various problems and contradictions, of which the most troublesome one is the contradiction between heritage conservation and tourism development. To discuss and analyze the root and the essence of the above contradiction and find a way to bring about harmony between them is an important program faced by our national heritage management practice and academic research. Based on the case of cleaning the Temple and Cemetery of Confucius and the Kong Family Mansion in Qufu, this paper analyzes the reasons why our national world cultural heritage sites bring about the above contradiction in the process of tourism development and points out that the improper system and stakeholders' benefit imbroglio are respectively the root and the essence of the contraction. Then, it also puts forward corresponding solutions.     

The Economic Effect of Mineral Resources Exploitation in Bijie Prefecture in Guizhou

Abstract

The exploitation of mineral resources plays an important role in promoting national economic development. Mining is an essential component of China’s industrial economy. Using grey correlation method to analyze the correlative effect of mineral resources exploitation to relevant industries, using national income method to calculate the pulling effect of mineral resources exploitation to economic growth and using graphs as well as tables to analyze the income distribution effect, the article obtains active economic effect of mineral resources development in Bijie, Guizhou. Moreover, from the view of resources-cored effect, the article analyzes negative effects such as single industrial structure brought by mineral resource development. Through analysis, we find that mineral resources exploitation to some extent brings active effects including gross domestic product growth, local financial revenue growth and relevant industries development; however, its negative effects should not be ignored. The negative effect can be lightened by diversifying industrial structure and prolonging industrial chain.     

冬奥会期间京津冀及周边区域空气质量时空特征、气象影响和减排效果评估

对比分析2015～2022年冬奥会期间(1月31日至2月20日)京津冀及周边区域44城市空气质量时空演变特征,量化同期气象、协同减排和跨区域传输对PM_2.5浓度及组分变化贡献,为不利气象条件下区域空气质量联防联控提供科学参考.结果表明,2022年44城市PM_2.5浓度为近8年农历同期最低(46μg·m^-3),优良天占比最高(83.3%),不存在重污染天.PM_2.5污染南重北轻,高值区主要集中在太行山沿线及燕山传输通道城市.2016年在春节中期未管控烟花爆竹燃放等源排放强度下,优良天占比93.5%,大气强扩散能力对空气质量改善至关重要.2022年静稳天气指数(SWI)同比增加2.1,大气扩散能力转差,44城市ρ(PM_2.5)均值和峰值同比下降14μg·m^-3和76μg·m^-3,北京减排对PM_2.5浓度降幅较未采取前增大96%,晋鲁豫地区在气象造成PM_2.5浓度上升的不利背景下,峰值下降87μg...     

不同行业减排对我国东部地区空气质量及大气温度的影响

未来我国减排政策更加关注对大气污染和大气增温的协同控制效果,但不同行业减排对空气质量改善和大气温度的影响不同.利用双向耦合的空气质量模型WRF-Chem,通过多组敏感性试验量化各部门人为源（工业源、居民源、交通源、火电厂和农业源）减排对2016年9月我国东部地区空气质量和大气温度的影响.结果表明,工业源、居民源、交通源、火电厂和农业源减排均能有效改善空气质量,PM_2.5浓度分别下降33.9%、9.6%、15.8%、10.8%和26.7%,但减弱的气溶胶-辐射相互作用使地表层获得更多能量,进而增加近地面气温0.04、0.03、0.01、0.03和0.09℃.在大气层顶,工业源、居民源、交通源和火电厂减排分别导致净辐射通量下降0.3、0.8、0.7和0.1 W·m^-2;而农业源减排则引起大气层顶净辐射通量增加0.8 W·m^-2.一方面,减排农业源导致散射性气溶胶下降进而引起净辐射增加;另一方面,减排农业源不会导致吸收性气溶胶（黑碳）下降,不能抵消散射性气溶胶下降引起的辐射增加.因此,减排农业源会导致大气层顶净辐射通量增加,同时近地面温度增加也最为显著.未来需要特别关注的是,尽管控制农业源排放会带来显著的空气质量改善,但同时会带来不利的显著增温后果.     

磷基材料对土壤铅稳定化效果及影响因素的Meta分析

磷基材料对土壤Pb有良好的稳定化效果.利用Meta分析法筛选汇总了1997~2022年磷基材料稳定土壤Pb的90篇文献,从土壤性质、稳定化工艺条件和磷基材料类型这3个方面量化分析了磷基材料对土壤Pb的稳定化率、赋存形态转化和对土壤pH的影响.结果表明,从土壤性质来看,土壤碱性越强（pH≥7.5）、土壤ω（Pb）越低（≤500 mg ·kg^-1）和土壤ω（有机质）越高（>0.5%）时,越有利于磷基材料对土壤Pb的稳定化,稳定化率分别为75.21%、34.97%和93.12%.从稳定化工艺条件来看,磷基材料添加量较高（≥10%）、含水率较高（>50%）、养护时间较长（≥30d）和养护温度较高（≥40℃）时,更有利于土壤Pb的稳定化,稳定化率可分别达到80.65%、84.98%、79.39%和41.44%.从磷基材料类型来看,可溶性磷基材料对土壤Pb有很高稳定化率（96.24%）;其使土壤可交换态Pb和碳酸盐结合态Pb向残渣态Pb转化的转化率达到95.93%;可溶性磷基材料多呈酸性,对土壤pH的降低率为7.27%,难溶性磷基材料多呈碱性,对土壤pH的增加率为3.63%.综上,在土壤pH≥7.5、土壤ω（Pb）≤500 mg ·kg^-1、土壤ω（有机质）>0.5%、可溶性磷基材料添加量≥10%、含水率>50%、养护时间≥30 d和养护温度≥40℃时,磷基材料对土壤Pb的稳定化效果较好.可见在实际Pb污染土壤修复过程中,为提高Pb稳定化率,需综合考虑土壤性质、稳定化工艺条件和磷基材料类型等因素的影响.     

FeS自养反硝化与厌氧氨氧化的耦合脱氮机制

微生物的功能多样性对元素价态的转换存在协同作用是自然界关键的生态调节策略,充分利用这种策略,实现不同微生物的功能组合,可以发展废水处理新工艺.本文以静态批次实验的含氮污染物作为研究对象,把Fe S投加量、NO_3~--N/NO_2~--N比值、厌氧氨氧化(ANAMMOX,AN)和自养反硝化(AD)生物量之比作为反应控制条件,讨论了AN与AD之间代谢产物互补的合作机制,提出了(AN+AD)_(TN→0)脱氮工艺的概念.研究发现过量的Fe S投加在保证AD过程的彻底性之外,并不显著影响AN菌的代谢活性;提高NO_2~--N在电子受体中的比例,会使微生物复合群落处于代谢底物竞争关系之中,对TN的去除产生负面影响; AN生物量的增加加深了复合群落的合作程度,当初始NH_4~+-N与NO_3~--N的化学计量比小于0. 85时,可以实现TN浓度趋零.结果表明,通过认识微生物之间的交互作用,寻求复杂微生物群落功能的规划或调控,可以设计出更加合理的废水处理工艺,达到低物耗投入条件下目标污染物的高效去除.     

Environmental and resource sustainability of Chinese cities: A review of issues,policies, practices and effects

This paper synthesizes the English literature on current issues, policies and practices, and their effects on environmental and resource sustainability in China's ongoing urbanization. Aspects of urban sustainability reviewed include air, water, solid waste, energy efficiency, transportation and land use. It shows that Chinese cities have been and probably will continue to be struggling with issues such as air pollution, scarcity of clean water, solid waste and greenhouse gas emissions. But there are many opportunities for improvement. It suggests shortages of existing policies and major gaps in knowledge and practice, which can be helpful to policy makers, planners and researchers in China and other developing countries.