直链烷基苯指示城市化过程初步研究

本研究以深圳市作为典型城市化地区代表,以直链烷基苯(LABs)作为环境分子标志物,在分析土壤LABs空间分布特征基础上,通过土壤LABs污染水平与城市化过程指标的相关分析,对直链烷基苯指示城市化过程可能性开展初步研究.结果表明,城市化过程中人口规模、用水状况、城市建设、收入与消费及产业结构这5个方面的因素与土壤中LABs污染水平均有相关性,表明环境LABs水平与城市化过程相关,可以作为环境分子标志物用于指示城市化过程.     

能见度与PM2.5浓度关系及其分布特征

利用相对湿度、能见度和PM_(2.5)质量浓度观测数据,针对不同相对湿度下,建立了消光系数与PM_(2.5)质量浓度之间线性关系,并分析了相关关系的全国分布特征.结果表明,我国中东部大部分地区在一定相对湿度区间内均可建立线性相关关系,而且相关性较好,相对湿度40%～90%区间内的平均相关系数高于0. 75,其中北京相关系数高达0. 9.北京、长三角和四川等地的PM_(2.5)单位质量消光效率在同等相对湿度下明显大于其他地区.不同地区湿度对能见度影响程度不同,北京等地在相对湿度大于90%时相对湿度对能见度作用大于PM_(2.5),而广州在相对湿度大于80%时相对湿度的作用明显增强.利用能见度反算北京地区PM_(2.5)浓度可知,1980～1996年,PM_(2.5)浓度年际变化不大,受采暖方式影响冬季PM_(2.5)浓度显著较高; 1997～2009年呈现缓慢下降趋势; 2010～2012年呈现上升趋势. 1980年以来,全国的PM_(2.5)浓度整体呈上升的趋势,尤其是华北地区,PM_(2.5)浓度始终高于全国其他地区.     

Temporal variability of visibility and its parameterizations in Ningbo, China

Simultaneous and continuous measurements of visibility, meteorological parameters and air pollutants were carried out at a suburban site in Ningbo from June 1, 2013 to May 31,2015. The characteristics of visibility and their relationships with air pollutants and meteorological factors were investigated using multiple statistical methods. Daily visibility ranged from 0.6 to 34.1 km, with a mean value of 11.8 km. During the 2-year experiment,43.4% of daily visibility was found to be less than 10.0 km and only 9.2% was greater than 20.0 km. Visibility was lower in winter with a frequency of 53.4% in the range of 0.0–5.0 km.Annual visibility had an obvious diurnal variation, with the lowest and highest visibility being 7.5 km at approximately 06:00 local time and 15.6 km at approximately 14:00 local time, respectively. Multiple correspondence analysis(MCA) indicated that the different ranges of visibility were significantly affected by different levels of pollutants and meteorological conditions. Based on the analyses, visibility was found to be an exponential function of PM_(2.5) concentrations within a certain range of relative humidity. Thus, nonlinear models combining multiple linear regressions with exponential regression were subsequently developed using the data collected from June 2014 to May 2015, and the data from June 2013 to May 2014 was used to evaluate the performance of the model. It was demonstrated that the derived models can quantitatively describe the relationships between visibility, air quality and meteorological parameters in Ningbo.     

农业灌溉用水经济价值及其影响因素——基于剩余价值法和陕西关中地区农户调研数据

灌溉水经济价值是农业用水定价的重要基础。根据陕西关中地区农户调研数据,采用剩余价值法计算得到小麦、玉米和苹果灌溉水经济价值均值分别为0.66 元/m³、0.84 元/m³、3.17 元/m³。以该结果作为水价调整上限与现状水价比较,小麦和玉米的水价上调空间介于0.24~0.71元/m³,苹果的水价调整空间介于2.72~3.04 元/m³之间。使用分位数模型对影响因素的研究发现：（1）仅在灌溉水经济价值较低时,农户和家庭特征以及土地分散程度有显著影响;（2）在灌溉水经济价值较高时,增强农户节水意识以及加入用水者协会将能有效提升灌溉用水经济价值;（3）粮食转为经济作物、进行农业水价综合改革在所有分位点上均呈显著正向影响。本文可为研究区域农业用水分类定价及改善用水效率提供参考。     

Statistical regression modeling for energy consumption in wastewater treatment

Wastewater treatment is one of critical issues faced by water utilities, and receives more and more attentions recently. The energy consumption modeling in biochemical wastewater treatment was investigated in the study via a general and robust approach based on Bayesian semi-parametric quantile regression. The dataset was derived from a municipal wastewater treatment plant, where the energy consumption of unit chemical oxygen demand (COD) reduction was the response variable of interest. Via the proposed approach, the comprehensive regression pictures of the energy consumption and truly influencing factors, i.e., the regression relationships at lower, median and higher energy consumption levels were characterized respectively. Meanwhile, the proposals for energy saving in different cases were also facilitated specifically. First, the lower level of energy consumption was closely associated with the temperature of influent wastewater, and the chroma-rich wastewater also showed helpful in the execution of energy saving. Second, at median energy consumption level, the COD-rich wastewater played a determinative role in the reduction of energy consumption, while the higher quality of treated water led to slightly energy intensive. Third, the higher level of energy consumption was most likely to be attributed to the relatively high temperature of wastewater and total nitrogen (TN)-rich wastewater, and both of the factors were preferably to be avoided to alleviate the burden of energy consumption. The study provided an efficient approach to controlling the energy consumption of wastewater treatment in the perspective of statistical regression modeling, and offered valuable suggestions for the future energy saving.     

北京市PM2.5时空分布特征及其与PM10关系的时空变异特征

PM_(2.5)时空分布特征及其与其它污染物的相关关系是PM_(2.5)时空统计分析的主要研究内容.然而,现有的方法直接从监测站点的角度对时空分布特征进行分析,难以有效地揭示PM_(2.5)浓度的聚集分布特征;同时,常用的地理加权回归在对PM_(2.5)与其它污染物间关系进行建模的过程中,缺乏同时考虑时间异质性与空间异质性,从而不能准确地描述依赖关系的时空变异特征.为此,首先借助于空间聚类分析技术,对北京市2014年PM_(2.5)浓度的聚集结构进行探测,在此基础上,通过聚集结构来分析PM_(2.5)季节性时空分布特征.然后,利用地理时空加权回归对北京市PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)季节平均浓度间关系进行建模,依据回归结果分析PM_(2.5)-PM_(10)间关系的时空变异特征.实验结果表明,春夏季节PM_(2.5)污染程度及空间变异程度均低于秋冬季节,各季节PM_(2.5)浓度均表现为北部浓度低、南部浓度高的空间分布特征;地理时空加权回归具有更好的拟合效果,由回归系数进一步可发现,春夏季PM_(2.5)-PM_(10)相关性低于秋冬季PM_(2.5)-PM_(10)相关性;各季节均表现为西北部PM_(2.5)-PM_(10)的相关性高于东南部PM_(2.5)-PM_(10)的相关性.     

京津冀地区高分辨率PM2.5浓度时空变化模拟与分析

为了全覆盖、高分辨率和高精度识别京津冀地区大气PM_2.5质量浓度时空变化,选取多角度大气校正算法遥感反演的1km AOD为主要预测因子,多种气象要素和土地利用要素为辅助预测因子,构建了混合效应模型+地理加权回归模型的两阶段统计模型,并针对京津冀地区PM_2.5污染较严重的特点,模型中引入了AOD²等独特预测因子.通过上述两阶段模型定量预测了研究区2017年1 km²空间分辨率的每日PM_2.5质量浓度.结果表明,模型交叉验证的决定系数R²为0.94,斜率为0.95,均方根预测误差为13.14 μg·m^-3,在前人基础上预测精度进一步提升,可用于PM_2.5浓度时空变化预测与分析.2017年,京津冀地区PM_2.5浓度年均值为44.96 μg·m^-3,年均值范围在0~89.89 μg·m^-3之间.PM_2.5浓度时空变化差异性明显,整体上呈现"平原西南部浓度高、平原东北部浓度中等和山区高原浓度低"的空间分布格局以及"冬季浓度高、夏季浓度低和春秋过渡"的季节变化特点.模型预测结果的高时空分辨率可以支持流行病学研究在较小区域的暴露评估和识别小尺度污染源的时空变化,分析发现在大气污染防治行动计划实施以来,污染较严重的冀中南山麓平原区可能出现了重要污染源的空间变化.模型预测与分析结果可以为京津冀大气污染防治提供科学支撑.     

中国碳排放及影响因素的市域尺度分析

评估区域碳排放及其与社会经济状况的关系对于制定碳减排措施至关重要.以中国339个地级及以上城市(不含新疆部分城市和港澳台地区)为研究对象,探究了非化石能源占比、土地开发度、常住人口城镇化率、第二产业占比、人均GDP和人均建设用地面积对人均CO₂排放量的影响.通过构建模拟人均CO₂排放量的贝叶斯信念网络,识别各因素对人均CO₂排放量的全局影响;采用多尺度地理加权回归模型,分析各因素对人均CO₂排放量的局部影响.结果表明：(1)2020年,中国地级及以上城市人均CO₂排放量呈现出由南向北递增,东部沿海向内陆递减的格局.(2)从全局来看,人均CO₂排放量对各因素的敏感性从高到低依次为：人均建设用地面积>人均GDP>常住人口城镇化率>土地开发度>第二产业占比>非化石能源占比.(3)从局部来看,各因素与人均CO₂排放量的空间关系方向与全局关系一致,关系强度上存在空间异质性.(4)清洁能源、脱碳技术、土地节约集约利用...     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF IRRIGATION PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS: AN APPLICATION OF LINEAR PROGRAMMING1

ABSTRACT: Economic analysis of irrigation production functions is discussed using linear programming. The method provides advantages over the partial one-crop type of analyses because it captures intercrop tradeoffs in water and land use in response to economic policies or changes in water supply. A numerical example is used.