Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically Ne/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty. 相似文献
We show that imposition of a state-level environmental tax in a federation crowds out pre-existing federal taxes. We explain how this vertical fiscal externality can lead unilateral state-level environmental policy to generate a welfare gain in the implementing state, at the expense of other states, even absent any environmental benefits. Using a computable general equilibrium model of the Canadian federation, we show that vertical fiscal externalities can be the major determinant of the welfare change following environmental policy implementation by a state government. Our numerical simulations indicate that – as a consequence of vertical fiscal externalities – state governments can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by over 20 percent without any net cost to themselves. 相似文献
Natural resource and wildlife managers must balance the disparate priorities of a diversity of stakeholders. To manage these priorities, a firm understanding of topics salient to the public is needed. The media often report on issues of importance to the public; therefore, these reports may be a useful measure of public interest. However, efficient methods for distinguishing diverse topics related to a wildlife management issue reported in the media and changes in the salience of those topics have been lacking. We used latent Dirichlet allocation, a Bayesian mixture model, to quantitatively assess the salience of topics surrounding the gray wolf (Canis lupus), which was reintroduced to Idaho (U.S.A.) in 1995. We analyzed articles published from 1960 to 2015 in an Idaho newspaper. We identified 6 distinct topics associated with gray wolves: policy, hunting, biological status, implementation of management, recovery, and human-wolf conflict. The salience of topics pre- and postreintroduction of wolves (1995) and pre- and postdelisting of wolves from the U.S. Endangered Species Act (2009) differed significantly, underscoring that these events were turning points in how issues were being publicly discussed and framed. Articles written by the local reporters were more likely to report on topics regarding conflict between humans and wolves, whereas articles sourced from a national outlet reported more on topics pertaining to wolf policy and biological status. In the context of managing a contentious, far-ranging, and long-lived wildlife species, our methods can help guide the location and timing of a suite of management strategies (e.g., media relation plans and stakeholder engagement) that promote human-wildlife coexistence across different landscapes. 相似文献
Background: Two of the 3 standardized field sobriety tests that U.S. law enforcement uses at roadside checks have a postural equilibrium component to them. Those tests have been validated to detect impairment caused by blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) of 0.08 g/dL or above. Many medical and traffic safety associations support a lower limit, and one state, Utah, has passed a law to lower the limit to 0.05 g/dL. Many studies have examined the effects of alcohol on postural control (of which postural equilibrium is a component), with a consensus emerging that impairment is usually found at BACs greater than 0.06 g/dL. Most of these studies, however, had a relatively small number of subjects, usually between 10 and 30. The current study collected data from a much larger sample.
Objective: The objective of this study was to provide additional evidence that posture control is negatively affected at BACs greater than 0.06 g/dL or breath alcohol concentrations (BrACs) of 0.06 g/210 L.
Method: This was a between-subjects study, with BrAC group as the independent variable (5 levels: 0.00, 0.04, 0.06, 0.08, and 0.10 g/210 L); 4 measures of postural control as the dependent variables; and age, height, and weight as the covariates. Posture control was measured with a force-sensing platform connected to a computer. The feet's center of pressure (CoP) on the platform was recorded and the corresponding movement of the body in the anterior–posterior and lateral planes was derived. Participants (N = 96) were randomly assigned to one of the BrAC groups. Positive BrAC groups were compared to the zero BrAC group. Data were examined with hierarchical multiple regression.
Results: Adjusted for age, height, and weight, the main effect of lateral CoP with eyes open was not statistically significant. There was a statistically significant main effect of alcohol on anterior–posterior CoP excursion with eyes open and with eyes closed and lateral CoP excursion with eyes closed. For all 3 of those variables, only BrACs of 0.08 and 0.10 g/210 L produced differences against zero BrAC. Although the main effect of alcohol on Lateral CoP Excursion with eyes open was not statistically significant, the contrasts between 0 and 0.08 and 0 and 0.10 g/210L BrAC were in the hypothesized direction.
Conclusion: The current study did not directly address the issue of whether the sobriety tests are sensitive to BrACs of 0.05 g/210 L or above; rather, it provides additional evidence that postural control, one of the components of those tests, is relatively unaffected by BrACs lower than 0.08 g/210 L. Additional research is needed on the diagnostic characteristics of the sobriety tests at BrACs lower than 0.08 g/210 L. 相似文献
Currently, there is an increasing attention towards ageing of industrial equipment, as the phenomenon has been recognised as a cause of severe accidents, recorded in the last years in many process establishments. Recent studies described ageing through a number of key-factors affecting the phenomenon by accelerating or slowing it down. The Italian Competent Authority for the prevention of chemical accidents (Seveso III Directive) adopted a short-cut method, accounting for the assessment of these factors, to evaluate the adequateness of ageing management during inspections at Seveso sites. In this paper, a Bayesian Network was developed, by using the data gathered during the first application of the short-cut method, with the aim to verify the robustness of the approach for ageing assessment and the validity of the a priori assumptions used in assessing the key-factors. The structure of the Bayesian network was established by using experts’ knowledge, whereas the Counting Learning algorithm was adopted to execute the parameter learning by means of the software Netica. The results showed that this network could effectively explore the complex logical and uncertain relationships amongst factors affecting equipment ageing. Results of the present study were exploited to improve the short-cut method. 相似文献
A high demand of oil products on daily basis requires oil processing plants to work with maximum efficiency. Oil, water and gas separation in a three-phase separator is one of the first operations that are performed after crude oil is extracted from an oil well. Failure of the components of the separator introduces the potential hazard of flammable materials being released into the environment. This can escalate to a fire or explosion. Such failures can also cause downtime for the oil processing plant since the separation process is essential to oil production. Fault detection and diagnostics techniques used in the oil and gas industry are typically threshold based alarm techniques. Observing the sensor readings solely allows only a late detection of faults on the separator which is a big deficiency of such a technique, since it causes the oil and gas processing plants to shut down.A fault detection and diagnostics methodology for three-phase separators based on Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) is presented in this paper. The BBN models the propagation of oil, water and gas through the different sections of the separator and the interactions between component failure modes and process variables, such as level or flow monitored by sensors installed on the separator. The paper will report on the results of the study, when the BBNs are used to detect single and multiple failures, using sensor readings from a simulation model. The results indicated that the fault detection and diagnostics model was able to detect inconsistencies in sensor readings and link them to corresponding failure modes when single or multiple failures were present in the separator. 相似文献
Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease‐driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host–pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious‐disease systems. 相似文献