Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Social stimulation,nuptial colouration,androgens and immunocompetence in a sexual dimorphic cichlid fish

The nature of the costs maintaining honesty of sexual signalling in inter- and intrasexual interactions remains a contentious issue. For carotenoid-based colour ornaments, it has been hypothesized that the honesty of the signal is enforced when carotenoid allocation to colour expression is traded off against carotenoid availability for immunocompetence. In addition, honesty is enforced if androgens required for colour expression are immunosuppressive. We tested whether there is a trade-off between colour expression and immunocompetence in a lek-breeding haplochromine cichlid fish, Pundamilia nyererei, from Lake Victoria with a carotenoid-based nuptial dress. First, we showed that expression of red nuptial colouration and social rank in a group were positively correlated. We then successfully manipulated the level of colour advertisement by socially stimulating individually housed males with a rival male: Stimulated males developed larger areas of red nuptial colouration and had higher levels of circulating 11-ketotestosterone (11-KT) than non-stimulated males. We subsequently tested the humoral immune response to a novel antigen (sheep red blood cells). There was no overall significant effect of social stimulation on antibody production, but in the stimulated males, the degree of red colouration and the antibody response were negatively correlated. This significant interaction between colour and treatment thus shows that the negative correlation between colouration and antibody production is dependent on the (manipulated) social environment. This study provides correlational and experimental evidence for a trade-off between expression of a sexual trait and one component of immune function in fish. We found no evidence for a direct effect of 11-KT on antibody production, and we discuss alternative mechanisms that could mediate the trade-off.     

Governing climate change in Dutch cities: anchoring local climate strategies in organisation,policy and practical implementation

Although Dutch cities were among the forerunners in local climate policy, a systematic overview on climate mitigation and adaptation policy is still missing. This study aims to fill this gap by analysing 25 Dutch cities using indicators for the level of anchoring in policy, organisation and practical implementation as well as multi-level relations. Since Tilburg, Amsterdam, Den Haag and Rotterdam show a higher performance than other Dutch cities, these four cities are used as reference cities. The findings suggest that structural integration of climate mitigation and adaptation is limited in Dutch cities. The study points at three recent trends in local climate governance in the Netherlands: (i) decentralisation within municipal organisations, (ii) externalisation initiatives that place climate policy outside the municipal organisation and (iii) regionalisation with neighbouring municipalities and the provincial government.     

Comparison of conservation metrics in a case study of lemurs

Conservation planning is important to protect species from going extinct now that natural habitats are decreasing owing to human activity and climate change. However, there is considerable controversy in choosing appropriate metrics to weigh the value of species and geographic regions. For example, the added value of phylogenetic conservation‐selection criteria remains disputed because high correlations between them and the nonphylogenetic criteria of species richness have been reported. We evaluated the commonly used conservation metrics species richness, endemism, phylogenetic diversity (PD), and phylogenetic endemism (PE) in a case study on lemurs of Madagascar. This enabled us to identify the conservation target of each metric and consider how they may be used in future conservation planning. We also devised a novel metric that uses a phylogeny scaled according to the rate of phenotypic evolution as a proxy for a species’ ability to adapt to change. High rates of evolution may indicate generalization or specialization. Both specialization and low rates of evolution may result in an inability to adapt to changing environments. We examined conservation priorities by using the inverse of the rate of body mass evolution to account for species with low rates of evolution. In line with previous work, we found high correlations among species richness and PD (r = 0.96), and endemism and PE (r = 0.82) in Malagasy lemurs. Phylogenetic endemism in combination with rates of evolution and their inverse prioritized grid cells containing highly endemic and specialized lemurs at risk of extinction, such as Avahi occidentalis and Lepilemur edwardsi, 2 endangered lemurs with high rates of phenotypic evolution and low‐quality diets, and Hapalemur aureus, a critically endangered species with a low rate of body mass evolution and a diet consisting of very high doses of cyanide.