Integration of ecological–biological thresholds in conservation decision making

In the Anthropocene, coupled human and natural systems dominate and only a few natural systems remain relatively unaffected by human influence. On the one hand, conservation criteria based on areas of minimal human impact are not relevant to much of the biosphere. On the other hand, conservation criteria based on economic factors are problematic with respect to their ability to arrive at operational indicators of well‐being that can be applied in practice over multiple generations. Coupled human and natural systems are subject to economic development which, under current management structures, tends to affect natural systems and cross planetary boundaries. Hence, designing and applying conservation criteria applicable in real‐world systems where human and natural systems need to interact and sustainably coexist is essential. By recognizing the criticality of satisfying basic needs as well as the great uncertainty over the needs and preferences of future generations, we sought to incorporate conservation criteria based on minimal human impact into economic evaluation. These criteria require the conservation of environmental conditions such that the opportunity for intergenerational welfare optimization is maintained. Toward this end, we propose the integration of ecological–biological thresholds into decision making and use as an example the planetary‐boundaries approach. Both conservation scientists and economists must be involved in defining operational ecological–biological thresholds that can be incorporated into economic thinking and reflect the objectives of conservation, sustainability, and intergenerational welfare optimization.     

行星传动起升机构飞车原因分析

建立行星传动起升机构电动机飞车的模型,计算电动机失电后各瞬间重物的速度、加速度,电动机的转速,从而分析事故的原因。     

What is the lesson from the unprecedented event over antarctica in 2002

Varotsos (2002a,b), suggested that both the smaller-sized ozone hole over Antarctica and its splitting in two holes in September 2002 occurred due to an unprecedented major sudden stratospheric warming caused by very strong planetary waves propagated in the southern hemisphere. Subsequently, a NASA press release of December 6, 2002, also reported the prevalence of very strong planetary waves in Antarctica. The aim of this Letter is to further discuss the morphology of the Antarctic ozone hole, to detect the causes that allowed the Antarctic stratosphere to exhibit this exceptional warming and to examine what it denotes about its mechanisms. Concerning the morphology, among the principal findings is that the ozone hole split occurred not only in the stratosphere but extended in the lower altitudes (upper troposphere). As to the causes of the major sudden stratospheric warming of 2002, a comparison with the previous warmings in Antarctica since 1964 is made. The smaller-sized Antarctic ozone hole of 2002 is approximately equal to that of 1988 when a strong sudden stratospheric warming occurred. If only the destruction of ozone by chlorofluorocarbons resulted in the delayed sudden stratospheric warmings in Antarctica, then the early sudden stratospheric warmings of 1988 and 2002 would not have occurred, since chlorofluorocarbon loading of the stratosphere has remained relatively stable in recent years. Furthermore, it appears that the El Nino characteristics in 1988 and 2002 are not similar.     

行星滚丝工艺研究

此文对行星滚丝原理进行了深入细致的研究,在此基础上着重讨论了其滚压工具的设计与修复问题,并应用实例作了验证。     

Simulation of Ekman Boundary Layers by Large Eddy Model with Dynamic Mixed Subfilter Closure

Theoretical analysis of boundary layer turbulence has suggested a feasibility of sufficiently accurate turbulence resolving simulations at relatively coarse meshes. However, large eddy simulation (LES) codes, which employ traditional eddy-viscosity turbulence closures, fail to provide adequate turbulence statistics at coarse meshes especially within a surface layer. Manual tuning of parameters in these turbulence closures may correct low order turbulence statistics but severely harms spectra of turbulence kinetic energy (TKE). For more than decade, engineering LES codes successfully employ dynamic turbulence closures. A dynamic Smagorinsky turbulence closure (DSM) has been already tried in environmental LES. The DSM is able to provide adequate turbulence statistics at coarse meshes but it is not completely consistent with the LES equations. This paper investigates applicability of an advanced dynamic mixed turbulence closure (DMM) to simulations of Ekman boundary layers of high Reynolds number flows. The DMM differs from the DSM by explicit calculation of the Leonard term in the turbulence stress tensor. The Horizontal Array Turbulence Study (HATS) field program has revealed that the Leonard term is indeed an important component of the real turbulence stress tensor. This paper presents validation of a new LES code LESNIC. The study shows that the LES code with the DMM provides rather accurate low order turbulence statistics and the TKE spectra at very coarse meshes. These coarse LES maintain more energetic small scale fluctuations of velocity especially within the surface layer. This is critically important for success of simulations. Accurate representation of higher order turbulence statistics, however, requires essentially better LES resolution. The study also shows that LES of the Ekman boundary layer cannot be directly compared with conventionally neutral atmospheric boundary layers. The depth of the boundary layer is an important scaling parameter for turbulence statistics.     

资源环境承载力评估新视角:行星边界框架的源起、发展与展望

将人类活动规模与强度控制在自然生态系统可承载限度之内,是可持续发展理论的核心要义。行星边界框架所秉持的“地球系统观”,为资源环境承载力评估提供了新视角,一经提出便在国际可持续发展领域引发极大关注与热烈讨论。本文系统阐述了行星边界框架的理论基础及其内涵演进,着重论述了该框架在国家、省域、市域和组织等不同尺度的发展与应用,深入探讨了其面临的挑战与改进方向,并与传统资源环境承载力研究范式进行了比较。研究表明:行星边界框架以复杂系统稳态和突变理论为基础,是历史经验与科学研究有机结合的产物。作为对现有资源环境承载力评估体系的有益补充,该框架由全球尺度向区域尺度拓展时,遵循自上而下分配与自下而上整合两条路径。当前行星边界框架中关于生物物理过程的尺度效应与交互机制的阐述较为薄弱,导致其变量选取与边界设置仍存较大争议,在与环境影响评价相整合、向社会经济维度拓展等方面面临方法学挑战。今后应从理论基础、技术方法、实践应用等方面继续深化研究,提升行星边界框架在可持续发展目标（SDGs）等全球重大公共议题中的政策价值。     

基于条件变分自编码器的齿轮箱故障诊断

目的实现齿轮箱故障类型的智能识别诊断。方法针对传统故障诊断方法通用性不广、数据依赖强、泛化能力弱并需人工提取特征问题,提出一种基于条件变分自编码器的故障诊断方法。以故障类别概率分布为目标并将振动信号频谱作为条件,通过条件变分自编码器,建立齿轮箱振动信号频谱到对应各故障下的条件概率模型,并通过多层神经网络结合变分推断方法进行训练优化,实现对齿轮箱各类型故障的高精度分类诊断。结果在仅有少量训练数据条件下,实现了准确的故障识别。结论条件变分自编码器在齿轮箱振动信号频谱概率分布建模上具有优异性能,对故障信号数据量的依赖低、泛化能力强,无需人工提取特征。能有效实现齿轮箱故障的智能分类诊断。     

青岛冬季PM2.5持续重污染天气的大气边界层特征

鲜有出现空气质量问题的北方沿海城市青岛近年来也频频出现重污染天气. 2014年1月青岛市总计出现7 d重污染天气,其中1月15-18日是持续4 d的PM_2.5重污染,其余的则分别出现在1月6日、11日和30日.为了获得气象条件对持续重污染天气发展、维持和消除的影响机制,利用激光雷达、大气稳定度仪探测数据以及地面、高空气象观测和空气质量监测数据,重点分析了1月15-18日持续重污染期间青岛市大气边界层气象要素的时间和空间特征.结果表明,2014年1月影响青岛冷空气势力弱、青岛近地面低于3 m/s的风速不利于污染物扩散,66%以上的相对湿度有利于污染物浓度增大.在污染源稳定的背景下,气象要素的差异性导致了污染物浓度时空分布的差异.在持续的弱偏北风下污染物浓度居高不下;在偏南风影响下,污染物浓度趋于下降.边界层内存在高层干冷弱北风和低层暖湿弱南风的风切变、稳定层结、低层相对湿度为70%的高湿大气以及交替出现的近地面南北风是此次重污染持续的主要原因.大气边界层高度变化对污染物浓度具有6 h左右的延迟影响;而低边界层高度、大稳定度因子,低云的存在和较高的污染物浓度之间具有较好的一致性变化趋势.当近地面温度升高、相对湿度减小以及增大的偏南风和存在弱不稳定层结时,有利于提高青岛局地大气扩散能力.      

Numerical Investigation of Boundary-Layer Evolution and Nocturnal Low-Level Jets: Local versus Non-Local PBL Schemes

Numerical simulations of the evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and nocturnal low-level jets (LLJ) have been carried out using MM5 (version 3.3) with four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) for a high pollution episode in the northeastern United States during July 15–20, 1999. In this paper, we assess the impact of different parameterizations on the PBL evolution with two schemes: the Blackadar PBL, a hybrid local (stable regime) and non-local (convective regime) mixing scheme; and the Gayno–Seaman PBL, a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)-based eddy diffusion scheme. No FDDA was applied within the PBL to evaluate the ability of the two schemes to reproduce the PBL structure and its temporal variation. The restriction of the application of FDDA to the atmosphere above the PBL or the lowest 8 model levels, whichever is higher, has significantly improved the predicted strength and timing of the LLJ during the night. A systematic analysis of the PBL evolution has been performed for the primary meteorological fields (temperature, specific humidity, horizontal winds) and for the derived parameters such as the PBL height, virtual potential temperature, relative humidity, and cloud cover fraction. There are substantial differences between the PBL structures and evolutions simulated by these two different schemes. The model results were compared with independent observations (that were not used in FDDA) measured by aircraft, RASS and wind profiler, lidar, and tethered balloon platforms during the summer of 1999 as part of the NorthEast Oxidant and Particle Study (NE-OPS). The observations tend to support the non-local mixing mechanism better than the layer-to-layer eddy diffusion in the convective PBL.     

Numerical Investigation of the Effects of Boundary-Layer Evolution on the Predictions of Ozone and the Efficacy of Emission Control Options in the Northeastern United States

This paper examines the effects of two different planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization schemes – Blackadar and Gayno–Seaman – on the predicted ozone (O₃) concentration fields using the MM5 (Version 3.3) meteorological model and the MODELS-3 photochemical model. The meteorological fields obtained from the two boundary-layer schemes have been used to drive the photochemical model to simulate O₃ concentrations in the northeastern United States for a three-day O₃ episodic period. In addition to large differences in the predicted O₃ levels at individual grid cells, the simulated daily maximum 1-h O₃ concentrations appear at different regions of the modeling domain in these simulations, due to the differences in the vertical exchange formulations in these two PBL schemes. Using process analysis, we compared the differences between the different simulations in terms of the relative importance of chemical and physical processes to O₃ formation and destruction over the diurnal cycle. Finally, examination of the photochemical model's response to reductions in emissions reveals that the choice of equally valid boundary-layer parameterizations can significantly influence the efficacy of emission control strategies.